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May 2023, Week 4

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Subject:
From:
Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>
Reply To:
Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>
Date:
Tue, 23 May 2023 06:50:03 -0400
Content-Type:
text/plain
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text/plain (202 lines)
Expires:202305231200;;918817
FPUS51 KBTV 230449
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1245 AM EDT Tue May 23 2023


VTZ018-231200-
Eastern Addison-
Including the cities of Bristol and Ripton
1245 AM EDT Tue May 23 2023

.REST OF TONIGHT...Clear. Lows around 40. Light and variable
winds. 
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny. A slight chance of showers in the
afternoon. Highs in the lower 70s. South winds around 10 mph.
Chance of rain 20 percent. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. South winds
10 to 15 mph. 
.WEDNESDAY...Showers. Highs in the upper 60s. Temperature falling
into the upper 40s in the afternoon. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph
with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the upper 30s. North
winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of rain
70 percent. 
.THURSDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 50s. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...Clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs
in the lower 60s. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the lower 40s. 
.SATURDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...Mostly clear. Highs in the lower
70s. Lows in the lower 50s. 

$$


Expires:202305231100;;932351
ASUS41 KBTV 231030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT TUE MAY 23 2023

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-231100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     PTCLDY    41  37  86 CALM      30.30R TC   5           
MONTPELIER     MOCLDY    38  35  89 CALM      30.36R TC   3           
MORRISVILLE    CLEAR     35  31  85 CALM      30.33R TC   2           
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     37  34  89 MISG      30.33R TC   3           
LYNDONVILLE*   MOCLDY    36  32  87 CALM      30.35R TC   2           
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      40  40 100 CALM      30.32R TC   5           
RUTLAND*       CLEAR     47  45  93 SE6       30.32R TC   8           
SPRINGFIELD    MOCLDY    47  44  90 CALM      30.35R TC   8           
NEWPORT*       FAIR      33  32  95 SW3       30.34R TC   1           
BENNINGTON     CLEAR     47  32  56 CALM      30.31R TC   8           
ISLAND POND*     N/A     30 N/A N/A CALM        N/A  TC  -1           
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     34 N/A N/A MISG        N/A  TC   1           
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     36 N/A N/A CALM        N/A  TC   2           
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     48 N/A N/A CALM        N/A  TC   9           

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     46  37  71 S8          N/A  TC   8           
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     46  41  81 SE5         N/A  TC   8           
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     45  41  87 E5          N/A  TC   7           

$$


Expires:No;;923883
FXUS61 KBTV 230713
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
313 AM EDT Tue May 23 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Other than perhaps a stray shower or two over the higher terrain 
this afternoon, quiet weather will continue through tonight. A 
strong front will cross the region on Wednesday, bringing widespread 
showers and possible thunderstorms, some of which may produce gusty 
winds. Temperatures will fall sharply behind the front, making for a 
chilly and blustery afternoon and evening. High pressure takes hold 
thereafter, with a trend toward warmer and drier weather for 
Memorial Day weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 312 AM EDT Tuesday...Today will definitely be the nicer of the
two days constituting the near term period. After a chilly start
this morning, expect temperatures to warm into the lower and mid 70s
under partly to mostly sunny skies. This daytime heating combined
with a weak upper shortwave crossing overhead may allow a few
showers to bubble up over the higher terrain and drift to the
east/northeast. These should be few and far between though, and the
vast majority of the region will remain dry today.

Our focus then turns toward a robust cold front which will approach
from the northwest late tonight and cross the forecast area on
Wednesday. Increasing south flow will keep tonight fairly mild,
especially from the Champlain Valley westward where lows will likley
be in the lower to mid 50s. Areas east of the Greens will have a bit
more opportunity for cooling and should bottom out in the upper 40s.

The cold front will be poised to enter the St Lawrence Valley by
daybreak or shortly thereafter on Wednesday, and will quickly push
southeastward through the day. There will be ample convergence along
this strong front, along with good forcing from a digging upper
trough and favorable jet dynamics. SB CAPE won't be overly
impressive ahead of the front, generally 600 J/kg or less, but 30-40
kt of shear will exist. A few thunderstorms will therefore be
possible along/ahead of the front, and some of the stronger cores
may be capable of producing brief heavy downpours. Temperatures will
fall sharply behind the front, and daytime highs will occur early in
the day, especially in northern/western areas, where temperatures
will top out in the lower/mid 60s. Further south and east, highs
will have time prior to the arrival of the front to warm into the
70s. Regardless, temperatures will quickly fall through the 50s as
north/northwest gust to around 30 mph behind the front, and expect
most locations will be in the mid/upper 40s by early Wednesday
evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 312 AM EDT Tuesday...Behind the cold front, brisk north winds
will advect below normal temperatures. After a cool start with 30s
to lower 40s, don't expect a rebound. Despite the sun, we'll only
manage 50s to lower 60s Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 312 AM EDT Tuesday...The main feature we're monitoring in the
extended is a strengthening upper low. Though briefly stalling, it
appears drier in recent runs with slow warming into the weekend. A
weak cold front early next week will temper warming as well. Expect
a gradual ramp up to mid to upper 70s, even lower 80s. Deep high
pressure could prevent much, if any, rain through the end of May.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...VFR expected to prevail through the TAF
period, with perhaps some very brief MVFR/IFR at KSLK in fog
toward daybreak. Otherwise, skies will remain mostly clear,
trending more towards scattered after 14z as daytime cumulus
develop with heating. Isolated showers will be possible over the
higher terrain 14z-00z, and these could lower conditions briefly
to MVFR should one pass directly over a terminal site. Light,
terrain-driven winds overnight will pick up to 5-10 kt from the
south/southwest after 14z and remain so through the remainder of
the TAF period. 

Outlook...

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Frost Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for VTZ003-004-
     006>008.
NY...Frost Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for NYZ027-029>031-
     034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Haynes
AVIATION...Hastings

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