Expires:201707312000;;094479
FPUS51 KBTV 310754
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
352 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017


VTZ006-312000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
352 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017

.TODAY...Partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon. Some thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall this
afternoon. Highs in the lower 80s. Light and variable winds,
becoming west around 10 mph this afternoon. Chance of rain
20 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms until
midnight, then a slight chance of showers after midnight. Some
thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall until midnight. Lows in the
upper 50s. Light and variable winds. Chance of rain 20 percent. 
.TUESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. Light and variable
winds. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the mid 50s. Light and variable
winds. 
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the mid 80s. Light and variable winds. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 60s. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the lower 80s. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the lower 60s. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the lower
80s. Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the lower 60s. 
.SATURDAY...Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms. Highs in
the mid 70s. Chance of rain 70 percent. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the mid 50s. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. 

$$


Expires:201707311100;;101286
ASUS41 KBTV 311030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT MON JUL 31 2017

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-311100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     MOCLDY    59  55  87 SE5       30.03S                  
MONTPELIER     PTCLDY    51  51 100 CALM      30.10S FOG              
MORRISVILLE    MOCLDY    49  49 100 CALM      30.08R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     52  52 100 MISG      30.06R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      51  50  97 CALM      30.10R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      54  52  94 CALM      30.05S                  
RUTLAND*       CLEAR     54  50  86 SE8       30.09R                  
SPRINGFIELD    PTCLDY    49  46  90 CALM      30.09R                  
HIGHGATE*      MOCLDY    62  55  77 CALM      30.03R                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    55  53  92 SW6       30.06R                  
BENNINGTON     CLEAR     50  48  93 CALM      30.08F                  
SUTTON*          N/A     52 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     57 N/A N/A W17         N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     66  57  72 S13         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     64  61  88 S20         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     63  55  77 S7          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;097667
FXUS61 KBTV 310849
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
449 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather this morning will see isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening. The threat for 
additional showers and storms will exist on Tuesday...but the 
areal coverage of this activity will be less than Monday. Above 
normal temperatures are expected on Monday and Tuesday. 
Unsettled weather is expected for the remainder of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 445 AM EDT Monday...Areas of patchy fog this morning will
erode as most of the North Country starts the day in sunshine. 
As a mid-level trough moves from western NY eastward today, 
expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to 
develop ahead of approaching surface front. Models continue to 
show CAPE values over 1kJ/kg near the international border, but 
marginal lifted indices as the Theta E ridge pushes east of the 
North Country late in the day. A lack of wind shear will keep 
convection disorganized. This light flow may also lead to slow 
moving convection with heavy downpours resulting in potential 
for flooding. PWATs generally expected to range from 1.1-1.5 
inches. 

Another round of showers/thunderstorms may develop and move NW 
to SE across the forecast area as the surface front moves 
through late this afternoon/evening. Forecast soundings continue
to show dry air in the sub cloud layer which could lead to some
gusty winds. Convection is expected to subside late this 
evening/overnight. 

Highs on Monday will range from the upper 70s to mid 80s. 
Monday night lows expected to be in the 50s to around 60.

Ridge of high pressure at the surface, keeping the area
primarily dry. Cannot rule out some clouds and an isolated
shower during the afternoon as models continue to show a weak
mid-level shortwave. Slightly cooler temperatures expected on
Tuesday as 925mb temperatures are lower by about 2 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 449 AM EDT Monday...Forecast concern will be chances for 
afternoon convection on Weds...followed by warming temps. Large 
scale pattern shows developing south/southwest low to mid level 
flow...which will help to advect warm temps and higher humidity 
values into our region...especially by the end of the week. For 
Weds...the lack of upstairs forcing and no boundary...expecting 
isolated to scattered trrn driven/lake breezy convection to 
develop between Noon and 6 PM. NAM/GFS show pockets of surface 
based cape around 1000 j/kg over the slv/western dacks and 
portions of the CPV on Weds Aftn with 0 to 6 km shear < 20 
knots. Thinking airmass convection is possible...with limited 
coverage. Progged 850mb temps warm btwn 14-16c...supporting 
highs upper 70s mountains to mid/upper 80s warmest valley 
locations. A mild night anticipated with southerly winds and 
some convective debris clouds. A decaying mcs may clip slv with 
isolated activity late evening...but overall expecting a dry 
night with temps mid 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 449 AM EDT Monday...Convective chances increase Thursday 
into the weekend...associated with shearing mid/upper level 
trof and associated embedded short wave energy. Deep 
south/southwesterly flow of 35 to 45 knots ahead of trof will 
help to advect pw values between 1.60 and 1.80 inches late Thurs
into Friday with increasing low level humidity values. This 
moisture will interact with a series of 5h vorts in the flow 
ahead to produce a threat for showers and storms Thursday into 
the upcoming weekend. Still some uncertainty on timing of best 
upper level forcing with approaching trof and associated surface
boundary. Latest guidance shows pre-frontal 5h vort and weak 
sfc trof interacting with surface based cape values between 700 
to 1000 j/kg on Thursday to produce isolated/scattered 
convection. Developing 850 to 500mb flow of 30 to 45 knots will 
help to increase deep layer shear parameters with cape values 
approaching 1500 j/kg to support some stronger convective 
elements with some organization on Friday aftn. However...timing
of actual cold front with strongest dynamics is progged to 
occur late Friday night into Saturday...supporting showers with 
embedded storms overnight...and threat for some localized heavy 
rainfall. Progged storm motions of 30 to 35 knots should 
minimize any hydro related issues. Better detail on areal 
coverage/intensity of convection will become clearer once 
captured by higher resolution models in the upcoming days. 

Expecting a period of above normal temps for Thursday into the 
upcoming weekend....with progged 850mb temps between 15-17c and 
925mb from 22c to 24c. The core of the warmest 925mb to 850mb 
profiles occur Thursday/Friday...before cooling occurs behind 
boundary for Saturday/Sunday. Expecting highs well into the 80s with 
maybe values near 90F for Thurs/Friday in the warmer urban areas of 
the CPV...with lows mainly mid/upper 50s to mid/upper 60s. In 
addition...humidity levels will be increasing...especially by Friday 
with dewpoints well into the 60s anticipated. Depending upon fropa 
timing...a gradual cool down with drier conditions expected by next 
weekend with highs mid 70s to lower 80s and lows mainly 50s to l/m 
60s. 

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...VFR conditions will persist with only 
TEMPO at KSLK and KMPV as winds aloft keep things mixed into 
Monday morning. With conditions very much like previous nights, 
expect KSLK to see 2-3 hours of intermittent LIFR cigs and KMPV 
with about 3 hours of intermittent LIFR/VLIFR vsbys and cigs.

By 11Z/12Z, expect VFR conditions to prevail at all terminals 
throughout the early afternoon hours. Instability increases this
afternoon, likely triggering some pop-up showers/thunderstorms 
ahead of frontal boundary. More showers/thunderstorms could 
develop as the boundary moves WNW to ESE across the North 
Country late this afternoon into evening. Within 
showers/thunderstorms, conditions could deteriorate to MVFR/IFR 
briefly in moderate to heavy rain. Winds ahead of the front will
generally be out of the south, shifting NW behind the front. 

Heading into Monday evening, chance for fog development will be
dependent on exactly where rain has fallen during the day.

Outlook...

Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson/KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...KGM

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