Expires:202306221800;;617634
FPUS51 KBTV 221035
ZFPBTV
Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
633 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2023
VTZ018-221800-
Eastern Addison-
Including the cities of Bristol and Ripton
633 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2023
.TODAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. Southeast winds
around 10 mph.
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s. Light and
variable winds.
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with a
chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 70s. South
winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Humid
with lows in the mid 60s. South winds around 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Showers with highs in the upper 70s. South winds
around 10 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the lower 60s. Chance
of rain 70 percent.
.SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...Showers with a chance of
thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 70s. Lows in the lower 60s.
Chance of rain 80 percent.
.MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...Showers. Highs in the mid 70s. Lows in
the lower 60s. Chance of rain 90 percent.
.TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...Showers. Highs in the lower 70s.
Lows in the upper 50s. Chance of rain 90 percent.
.WEDNESDAY...Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms. Highs
in the upper 60s. Chance of rain 70 percent.
$$
Expires:202306221100;;617394
ASUS41 KBTV 221030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT THU JUN 22 2023
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.
VTZ001>019-221100-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON CLEAR 59 53 80 SE5 30.24S TC 15
MONTPELIER FOG 51 50 96 CALM 30.31S VSB<1/4 TC 11
MORRISVILLE CLEAR 51 48 89 CALM 30.28R TC 11
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 52 50 93 MISG 30.27R TC 11
LYNDONVILLE* FAIR 51 50 97 CALM 30.30R TC 11
MIDDLEBURY* FAIR 57 53 86 SW3 30.25S TC 14
RUTLAND* CLEAR 52 51 97 SE8 30.27S TC 11
SPRINGFIELD FOG 50 49 96 CALM 30.29S VSB 1/4 TC 10
HIGHGATE* N/A N/A N/A N/A MISG N/A
NEWPORT* FAIR 54 52 95 SW3 30.29R TC 12
BENNINGTON CLEAR 50 47 89 NE3 30.25S TC 10
ISLAND POND* N/A 46 N/A N/A CALM N/A TC 8
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 46 N/A N/A MISG N/A TC 8
LAKE EDEN* N/A 48 N/A N/A CALM N/A TC 9
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 52 N/A N/A CALM N/A TC 11
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND* N/A 64 55 72 S7 N/A TC 18
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 63 55 77 S12 N/A TC 17
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 61 55 82 SE3 N/A TC 16
$$
Expires:No;;617533
FXUS61 KBTV 221034
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
634 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly sunny and dry today with increasing clouds from south to
north this afternoon with comfortable temperatures in the mid 70s to
low 80s. Thereafter, an unsettled weather pattern is expected for
late Friday through the weekend and into early next week with
showers and embedded thunderstorms likely. Some locally heavy
rainfall is possible with much higher dewpoints and normal
temperatures.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 633 AM EDT Thursday...As expected river valley fog east of
Green Mountains, some locally dense that should burn off between
8-9am. Otherwise, all is going well and no changes to forecast.
Previous discussion...Rex block upper level pattern will begin
to breakdown today as the upper ridge slides ESE offshore allowing
for closed low that has been problematic across the Southeast and
Applachians for much of this week to slowly lift, weaken and fill
Friday and maintain a trof across our forecast area through the
weekend.
Today will still feature abundant sunshine with increasing high and
mid clouds from the south beginning midday-early afternoon but not
reaching the northern border til evening. Temperatures warming again
a few more degrees from today into the upper 70s to lows 80s.
The pattern begins to change tonight as the aforementioned high
shifts offshore and a moist southerly flow develops as a closed
upper level circulation over the central Appalachians begins to
shift north. Mid/low clouds will increase through the night from the
south, along with a +1.5" PWAT axis which could produce some
isolated showers and/or sprinkles. Overall the night should be dry
for most locales, with lows milder than the previous nights in the
mid 50s to low 60s.
Friday...southerly flow continues with deeper moisture advecting
into the area and marginal instability. It looks like a better low
level jet and area being more influenced by the approaching upper
low versus the departing ridge with perhaps some lift as PWAT's
>1.75 inches moves in. Some mid-level energy rotating around upper
flow progresses and influences PA/SE NY but it looks like some
weaker leading edge vorticity combined with the PWAT surge could
trigger a scattered afternoon shower/two. Temperatures in the M70s-
L80s with dewpoints climbing into the 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 252 AM EDT Thursday...As a rex block continues to weaken Friday
night, we will continue to see deep moisture advect northward from
the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic. There is increasing
deterministic and ensemble guidance showing an anomalously moist air
mass moving overhead by Saturday morning that will be highlighted by
PWATs approaching an possibly exceeding 1.75" across the North
Country. A deepening mid- latitude cyclone across the Ohio
Valley/Great Lakes Region should provide ample upper level
diffluence and possibly some shortwave energy that should act as a
catalyst for widespread showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon
as instability peaks during the afternoon hours. Some organized
convection is possible given decent instability forecasted by the
NAM and GFS with marginal shear but the likelihood we see anything
strong to severe seems limited at this time. The bigger picture will
be the likelihood of some heavy rain in thunderstorms given the high
PWAT air mass that'll be overhead on Saturday. It looks like most
places will see decent rainfall on Saturday but some places could
easily top a half of three quarters of an inch of rain in
thunderstorms but trying to pinpoint more favorable locations this
far in advance is virtually impossible. We should see this shower
and thunderstorm activity begin to wane during the evening hours on
Saturday but weak elevated instability and broad lift across the
region should be enough to keep some scattered shower activity
possible through Saturday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 252 AM EDT Thursday...Rain, rain, and more rain is on the way
for Sunday and much of the upcoming week. A weak blocking pattern is
expected to keep the North Country under the influence of an upper
level trough that'll gradually decrease in amplitude through the
week. Sunday looks as though it'll be a repeat of Saturday with a
big uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity during the afternoon
hours with heavy rainers once again expected with high PWATs across
the region. The closed low across the Ohio Valley will open up and
weaken as it ejects across the North Country Sunday night but this
feature should act as a good source of lift and may keep more
widespread shower and thunderstorm activity through the evening and
overnight hours.
Monday is also shaping up to be a wet day (noticing a pattern here?)
as a mature mid-latitude cyclone begins to weaken as it pushes
across the Great Lakes. Monday should be the warmest day of the week
with highs in the low to mid 80s with dewpoints pushing the 70
degree threshold. With some mid-level height falls across the region
and a ensemble CAPE average of close to 1000 J/kg, it's feasible to
think we could have a few strong thunderstorms across the region.
However, it looks like Monday could see rainfall early in the
morning hours which may stabilize the surface layer just enough to
really preclude and strong to possibly severe storms. But guess
what? Heavy rain will be possible yet again. By this point we will
have to keep a close eye on hydro issues as multiple days of heavy
rainers could begin to prime the soils and slow the intrusion rate
of rainfall leading to increased runoff and flood potential.
And another round of rain is expected on Tuesday. The higher PWAT
airmass will remain in place but the longwave pattern is expected to
become more progressive as the aforementioned cyclone opens up and
allows for faster flow aloft. This should help push a cold front
through the region on Wednesday which will finally force this high
PWAT air mass out to see and replace it with noticeably drier air
with lower dewpoints. We cannot rule out showers of Thursday of
Friday unfortunately as some models are showing the boundary
stalling just to our east with Atlantic moisture potentially
wrapping back into the region. Stay tuned but make sure to have your
rain jackets or umbrellas ready this upcoming week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06Z Friday...VFR conditions will prevail through the
majority of the forecast period, with the exception of KMPV
where fog possible between 10Z and 12Z will bring reduced
visibilities and flight conditions. There is the potential for
fog tonight at KSLK/KEFK given clear skies and calm winds
however, based on last night's performance, the confidence is
too low to include in the forecast. Outside of the brief stint
of fog, skies will generally be clear overnight tonight with
some increasing high clouds moving in during the day tomorrow
with lower-mid clouds toward evening in the south moving north.
With the exception of light SE winds at KRUT, winds tonight
will be mostly calm, before becoming more southerly between
5-10kts tomorrow.
Outlook...
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SLW
NEAR TERM...SLW
SHORT TERM...Clay
LONG TERM...Clay
AVIATION...SLW
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