Expires:202009132000;;749104
FPUS51 KBTV 130830
ZFPBTV
Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
427 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2020
VTZ006-132000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
427 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2020
.TODAY...Partly sunny this morning, then mostly cloudy with
showers likely this afternoon. Highs in the upper 60s. South
winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of rain
70 percent.
.TONIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Showers likely, mainly until midnight.
Lows in the lower 50s. South winds 15 to 20 mph, becoming west
10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 60 percent.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of showers in the
morning, then partly sunny in the afternoon. Highs in the upper
50s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Northwest
winds 10 to 15 mph.
.TUESDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 60s. Light and variable
winds.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the mid 40s.
.WEDNESDAY...Sunny, warmer with highs in the lower 70s.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s.
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the lower 70s.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the mid 40s.
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs
around 60.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the upper 30s.
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 50s.
$$
Expires:202009131100;;754107
ASUS41 KBTV 131030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2020
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.
VTZ001>019-131100-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON PTCLDY 60 48 64 S16G24 30.10F
MONTPELIER CLEAR 51 47 86 CALM 30.21F
MORRISVILLE PTCLDY 47 45 93 CALM 30.16F
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 52 46 80 MISG 30.18S
LYNDONVILLE* FAIR 48 45 87 CALM 30.20F
RUTLAND* CLEAR 52 49 89 SE9 30.19F
SPRINGFIELD MOCLDY 46 44 93 W5 30.22F
HIGHGATE* MOCLDY 62 47 58 S15G23 30.07F
NEWPORT* FAIR 50 48 93 S10 30.15F
BENNINGTON PTCLDY 57 49 74 SE7 30.19F
ISLAND POND* N/A 50 N/A N/A NW1 N/A
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 39 N/A N/A MISG N/A
LAKE EDEN* N/A 52 N/A N/A SW5 N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 52 N/A N/A SW28G44 N/A
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND* N/A 63 54 72 SE26G40 N/A
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 61 52 72 S36 N/A
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 59 52 77 SE23 N/A
$$
Expires:No;;745652
FXUS61 KBTV 130721
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
321 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
Rain showers ahead of a warm front will overspread the North Country
this morning and move into Vermont during the afternoon hours. At
the same time, we will see winds across the region increase with the
strongest winds expected across the northern Champlain Valley. Lake
Champlain will see the strongest winds with southerly gusts up to 40
mph while Burlington and Plattsburgh will see wind gusts around 30
mph. Winds will weaken this evening and rainfall will taper off as a
cold front pushes through overnight. Cooler and drier weather will
return to the region for Monday and Tuesday as cold high pressure
descends down from Canada. A warming trend will be observed on
Wednesday and Thursday before the next cold front pushes through
late next week with a return to below normal temperatures.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 321 AM EDT Sunday...All is quiet across the North Country thus
far this morning with precipitation ahead of an approaching warm
front still well south and west of our forecast area. As has been
the trend, the onset of rain showers this morning has been delayed
another one to two hours as the closed upper low (currently over
Wisconsin) continues to weaken into an open wave. The more
interesting thing to note this morning is winds are surprisingly
stronger than expected. Looking at both the Mount Mansfield and
Whiteface mountaintop observations have been showing winds between
35 and 40 knots. This is noticeably stronger than what the guidance
was showing this time yesterday with both the NAM3 and BTV4
capturing the stronger low level jet well with the 00Z synoptic run.
The marine boundary layer over Lake Champlain has been well mixed
overnight with winds of 25 to 30 knots already making it down over
to the surface over the lake.
Rain showers will move into the St. Lawrence Valley between 8 and 10
AM and continue to slowly track eastward through the morning and
afternoon hours. The overall forcing is looking less impressive with
the best jet dynamics now passing to our northwest while a shortwave
ahead of the main cold front remains fragmented. Without strong
synoptic lift, it'll be hard to get high rainfall rates with the
lack of instability even though our PWATS should increase to 1.5" to
1.6". Storm total rainfall amounts have been cut slightly across the
entire forecast area due to waning upper level support but we are
still looking at a general 0.35" to 0.5" across northern New York.
Over Vermont, the rainfall total forecast is quite tricky as the
stronger low level jet is likely to carve out a huge decrease in
rain amounts over the Champlain and Connecticut River Valleys. As it
stands now, both of these locations will likely see less than a
tenth of an inch of rainfall with 0.1" to 0.25" expected across the
western slopes of the Green Mountains and across the international
border. Rainfall for the most part will taper off prior to midnight
but we will likely see a few rain showers upslope over the western
Green Mountains through the overnight period.
Going back to the winds, the stronger low level jet will likely
support stronger winds mixing down to the surface this afternoon.
When looking at the NAM3 and BTV4 soundings, it looks like some of
the stronger winds could easily make it into Burlington and
Plattsburgh and we have increased wind gusts this afternoon
accordingly. While we should only mix to about 2000 ft or so, the
top of the mixed layer is around 45 knots with a mean wind of 38-40
knots through the mixed layer. These stronger winds will likely be
realized over Lake Champlain where 35-40 knot gusts will be likely
but inland wind gusts will likely be limited to around 30 knots.
Winds will diminish this evening as mixing ceases as behind the cold
front and the low level jet weakens. However, gusty winds to 25
knots will continue through midnight or so across the northern
Champlain Valley before weakening to 10 knots closer to Monday
morning.
Monday will be a sunny albeit chilly day across the North Country as
cold surface high pressure descends out of Canada. Highs will
struggle to climb into the mid 50s to lower 60s under the abundant
sunshine but winds will be 10 knots or less.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 321 AM EDT Sunday...Quiet weather expected through this period
as surface high pressure slowly crosses the region. Clearing skies
and light winds will allow for good radiational cooling Monday night
into early Tuesday, resulting in chilly conditions by daybreak.
Patchy frost will be possible across much of the Adirondacks in NY
and Northeast Kingdom in VT. Tuesday will see ample sunshine and
highs in the 60s areawide. The ridge axis will move offshore Tuesday
night, allowing south to southwest flow to begin to set up. Hence
expect temperatures will not be as chilly as the previous night;
lows will generally be in the upper 30s to mid 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 321 AM EDT Sunday...High pressure will continue to dominate
through mid week, though the flow will become more south to
southwest ahead of an upper trough/frontal boundary approaching from
the west. Wednesday will be breezy and mild as a result with highs
in the mid to upper 70s. Things become less clear thereafter as much
hinges on the evolution of the aforementioned upper trough/front and
how they interact with the remnants of Tropical Storm Sally, which
will lift east-northeast after making landfall in the vicinity of
LA/MS. The GFS/CMC/ECMWF have come into better agreement on timing
of the frontal passage, though the GFS is still a fast outlier by
6-12 hours. A slower progression of the front and trough would allow
the remnants of Sally to draw closer to the Northeast, and
increasing tropical moisture combined with dynamics of the front and
trough would result in heavier and more widespread rainfall.
Meanwhile, a faster solution such as the GFS would just bring
showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms with the frontal passage,
keeping the bulk of the tropical moisture shunted to our south and
east. Regardless, the best chances for precipitation look to be
sometime in the Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon
timeframe. High pressure returns after that, along with cooler
temperatures. Have stayed close to a model blend for the latter half
of the week owing to these model differences.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...VFR conditions will continue through 18Z
before conditions begin to deteriorate from west to east.
Ceilings will drop to 1500 ft across KMSS and KSLK between 18Z
and 21Z as a cold front approached the region. Further east in
Vermont, the lack of moisture and forcing will likely keep
ceilings VFR through the TAF period. Gusty south winds will
begin to develop between 15Z and 18Z as the pressure gradient
begins to tighten with the strongest winds occurring at KBTV
and KPBG where gusts to 30 knots will be possible this
afternoon. Winds will begin to weaken this evening with the loss
of mixing and a weakening pressure gradient. With a strong low
level jet moving overhead, we will see wind shear develop at all
terminals throughout the day except KBTV and KPBG where the
stronger winds will make it down to the surface. Rainfall
associated with the cold front will move through the region
throughout the day but visibilities will likely remain VFR with
expected light rainfall rates.
Outlook...
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Clay
NEAR TERM...Clay
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Clay
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