Expires:200510162115;;681551
FPUS51 KBTV 160732
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
330 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2005


VTZ006-008-016>018-162115-
LAMOILLE-WASHINGTON-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-
EASTERN ADDISON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE...MONTPELIER...
ENOSBURG FALLS...RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON
330 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2005

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT
EDT TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. VERY WINDY WITH HIGHS AROUND 50. WEST WINDS 
25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. 
.TONIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN RAIN OR SNOW 
SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH 
POSSIBLE ABOVE 1500 FEET. VERY WINDY WITH LOWS AROUND 40. WEST 
WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH...DECREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH 
WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 
PERCENT. 
.MONDAY...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. 
BREEZY WITH HIGHS AROUND 50. WEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF 
PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH...BECOMING
SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY...CLOUDY WITH RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY...MAINLY THROUGH EARLY 
AFTERNOON. BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 
20 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE 
OF RAIN 60 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL
MIDNIGHT...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.
CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. CHANCE OF
RAIN 40 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. 

$$




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FXUS61 KBTV 160630
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
230 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2005

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
MAIN WX HIGHLIGHTS DURING COURSE OF SHORT TERM WILL BE STRONG WINDS
TODAY ALONG W/UPSLOPE SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. LATEST
SYNOPTIC MAP INDICATING DEEP 979 HPA CYCLONE INVOF ME/NEW BRUNSWICK
BORDER MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD AT THIS TIME. UPPER LOW NOW NEAR CWMW
TO ROTATE SLOWLY EAST OVER COURSE OF NEXT 36 HOURS WITH SFC LOW
REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY BEFORE SLOWLY
LIFING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM REGION. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OHIO VALLEY
STATES WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE STRONG AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. DEEP BNDRY LYR MIXING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
ARE REALLY NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE PER MANY COLD SEASON EVENTS...AND
EXPECTING GENERAL SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF ONLY 25 TO 35 MPH WITH MEAN
GUSTS BTWN 40-50 MPH AND PERHAPS A  FEW TO NEAR 60 MPH ACROSS
ELEVATED TERRAIN. HOWEVER...FAIRLY CONFIDENT OF SCT/NUMEROUS POWER
OUTAGES DUE TO TREE FALL. ANTECEDENT WET GROUND CONDS COMBINED WITH
REMAINING FOLIAGE WILL ACT TO CREATE UNSTABLE FOOTING FOR MANY
TALLER TREES...AND EXPECT WINDS OF AFOREMENTIONED MAGNITUDE SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT TO TOPPLE QUITE A FEW. THUS WILL OPT TO ISSUE HIGH
WIND WARNING FOR ENTIRE FA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. OTHER HIGHLIGHTS OVER
NEXT 30 HOURS WILL BE DEVELOPING UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION ACROSS NRN
DACKS/GREENS AS LOWER TROPOSPHERIC SOUNDINGS REMAIN NEARLY
SATURATED TO 12K FT UNDER MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL NW FLOW TODAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THUS WIDESPREAD
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN SLOPES...OCCASIONALLY
CREEPING INTO NRN VALLEY LOCALES. DRIEST MOST FAVORABLE CONDS ACROSS
SRN VT WHERE ADIABATIC COMPRESSIONAL EFFECTS MORE PRONOUNCED. WILL
ALSO CONTINUE TO MENTION POSSIBILITY OF SOME MIXED PRECIP ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS NRN MTNS LATER TONIGHT AS LATEST 1000-850
HPA THICKNESS PROFILES FROM ETA12 FALLING TO BELOW 1300DM AFTER 06Z.

DEEP/OCCLUDED SFC LOW THEN LIFTS NE BY MONDAY LOSING INFLUENCE ON
AREA WX CONDS. THUS SKIES TO BECOME BRIEFLY PS/PC LATER
MONDAY/MONDAY NT UNDER ABATING WIND REGIME. DRY CONDS TO BE SHORT
LIVED HOWEVER...AS CLIPPER-TYPE SHORTWAVE IN PROCESS OF DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS CANADIAN HIGH PLAINS DIVES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO REGION
TOWARDS BASE OF UPPER LOW ACROSS MARITIMES. THIS WILL SPELL
INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHCS PRECIP LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
SYSTEM PASSES NEARLY OVERHEAD. WILL FAVORABLE TRACK OF
SYSTEM...WILL OPT TO NUDGE POPS UP TO LIKELY ACROSS NRN NY LATER
MONDAY NIGHT...AND ACROSS MUCH OF REMAINDER OF FA DURING FIRST
PORTIONS OF TUESDAY BEFORE DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO REGION FROM THE NW.
&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
NO CHGS TO EXTENDED PORTIONS OF FCST AT THIS TIME. LATEST MEDIUM
RANGE OP SOLNS OFF 00Z GFS NOW SUGGESTING SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TO NOW
AFFECT AREA DURING WED INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH MORE FAVORABLE
CONDS LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY/SAT. DUE TO LACK OF 00Z ENSEMBLE
DATA AND APPARENT RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY IN REGARDS TO EVOLUTION
OF SFC/MID LVL FEATURES WILL DEFER TO LATER SHIFTS FOR ANY CHGS
DURING THESE PERIODS.
&&

.AVIATION...
MAIN ISSUE WILL BE STRENGTHENING WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS LATER THIS
MORNING THROUGH ABOUT 04Z TONIGHT.  SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE IN THE
15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE...WITH GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 45 KNOT RANGE.
CEILINGS WILL PERSIST ALL DAY AND GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE MVFR
CATEGORY.  ANY PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL COMING THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
24 HOUR RAINFALL FROM ACROSS THE REGION HAS GENERALLY RANGED FROM
AROUND A QUARTER INCH ACROSS THE SLV TO AS HIGH AS 2 INCHES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. RISES HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY LIGHT
AND MANY RIVERS AND ASSOC TRIBUTARIES ARE IN THE PROCESS OF CRESTING
AT THIS TIME. ONLY MINOR CONCERNS ACROSS NE VT GAGES WHERE
PASSUMPSIC BASIN GAGES HAVE SEEN MORE NOTABLE RISES PER HEAVIER
RAINFALL. NO WIDEPSREAD FLOODING IS EXPECTED...BUT SOME MINOR FIELD
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF ESSEX/CALEDONIA/ORLEANS
COUNTIES THROUGH MIDDAY.
&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD DAILY RAINFALL AT KBTV YESTERDAY...SEE RERBTV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019 FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO
     MIDNIGHT MONDAY.
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087 FROM 8 AM SUNDAY
     TO MIDNIGHT MONDAY.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...EVENSON
HYDROLOGY/CLIMATE...JMG/EVENSON









FXUS61 KBTV 160124
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
923 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
QUICK UPDATE TO GOING FORECAST MAINLY TO TOUCH UP TIMING OF PRECIP
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE TODAYS RAINFALL HAS PUSHED
EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SATELLITE PICS EVEN SHOWING A
BIT OF CLEARING SKIES IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. HAVE LOWERED POPS ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT...AND HAVE KEPT IDEA OF SHOWERS LIKELY
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND SURFACE LOW OVERNIGHT.
QUICK LOOK INTO HIGH WIND WATCH ISSUED IN AFTERNOON PACKAGE...AND AT
THIS POINT AN ADVISORY SEEMS LIKE IT MIGHT BE THE RIGHT CALL...
THOUGH WILL WAIT FOR 00Z MODEL RUNS AND REASSESS THE SITUATION THEN.
OVERNIGHT TEMPS AND WINDS LOOK OKAY SO NO CHANGES THERE.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 310 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2005)

SYNOPSIS...
WATER VAPOR CONTS TO SHOW TWO DISTINCT S/W'S HELPING TO CURVE OUT A
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF OVER NE CONUS. FIRST WAVE NOW 300 MILES OFF
THE NJ COAST WITH ANOTHER APPROACHING CENTRAL NY. SECOND PIECE OF
ENERGY WL CAPTURE SFC LOW AND EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECT IN THE
GULF OF MAINE AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SUNDAY. LARGE AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR DEVELOPING BEHIND S/W ENERGY ACRS EASTERN NY/SNE
ATTM WL SLOWLY PROGRESS NE INTO SOUTHERN VT THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE NE KINGDOM BY LATE EVENING. WHICH SHOULD DECREASE THE
OVERALL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF RAIN ACRS OUR FA.

REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE CONTS
TO ADVECT INTO ALL OF VT THIS AFTN. ANOTHER BAND OF PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC COLD FRNT AND ULVL DISTURBANCE IS PUSHING ACRS
DACKS/CPV ATTM WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL NY. 24 HR STP SHOWS A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES ACRS
OUR FA WITH SOME ISOLATED SPOTS APPROACHING 3" IN THE FAVORABLE SE
UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE GREEN MTNS. QUICK REVIEW OF RIVER GAUGES
INDICATE ALL RIVERS WITHIN THEIR BANKS ATTM WITH SOME SHARP RISES
NOTED ON CHAZY...SARANAC...OTTER...AND WHITE RIVERS. WL CONT TO
MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL PROBLEMS.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
STRONG 5H VORT LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NY WL CONT TO DIVE SE AND
ENHANCE SFC CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE
TONIGHT. THIS SFC LOW WL TRACK NORTH INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE...EXPECT LARGE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND S/W ENERGY TO
MOVE FROM PA/NY THRU SNE INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT TONIGHT AND
DECREASE THE OVERNIGHT INTENSITY/COVERAGE OF PRECIP. FEEL WE WL HAVE
A 6 TO 8 HR BREAK IN PRECIP ACRS OUR FA AS SYSTEM TRANSLATES FROM A
SYNOPTIC EVENT INTO MORE OF A MESOSCALE UPSLOPE EVENT LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. ALSO...700-500MB RH PROGGES AND 7H OMEGA SHOWS BEST
MOISTURE/LIFT MOVING FROM CENTRAL VT INTO OUR NORTHERN ZNS AND MAINE
OVERNIGHT. WL MENTION CHC POPS SOUTHERN/WESTERN AREAS TO CAT POPS NE
KINGDOM.

SUNDAY...STRONG SFC LOW (973MB) SLOWLY MOVES INTO EASTERN CANADIAN
AS NW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ACRS OUR FA. THE PRES GRADIENT WL TIGHTEN
ON SUNDAY AS THE GRADIENT BTWN HIGH PRES OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
LOW PRES OVER EASTERN CANADA INCREASES. PROGGED 85H WINDS ARE 45 TO
55 KNTS ACRS OUR ENTIRE CWA WITH 925MB WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KNTS AND BL
WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KNTS WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE INTO WIND ADVISORY.
SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS BELOW INVERISON OF 40 TO 50 KNTS...WHICH SHOULD
MIX 90 TO 95 PERCENT DOWN TO THE SFC GIVEN LLVL THERMAL PROFILE.
THIS COMBINED WITH SATURATED SOIL FROM WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN THE
PAST 8 DAYS OR SO...FEEL WINDS WL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO UPROOT TREES
AND CAUSE WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES. THEREFORE WL ISSUE HIGH WIND
WATCH FOR ENTIRE FA FROM 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. STRONG
WINDOW FOR HIGHEST WINDS WL BE 15Z SUNDAY THROUGH 03Z MONDAY. NOT
EXPECTING TO REACH GUSTS TO 58 MPH OR SUSTAINED AT 40 MPH...BUT
FEEL IMPACT WL BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT WATCH ATTM. FEEL
HIGH RESOLUTION NAM AND LOCAL WS-ETA HAVE NICE DEPICTION OF UPSLOPE
EVENT. LLVL WINDS BECOME PERPENDICULAR TO MTNS BY 12Z AS PLENTY OF
LLVL MOISTURE IS WRAPPED AROUND THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...LLVL LAPSE
RATES ARE MARGINAL...BUT FLW IS STRONG ENOUGH TO ENHANCE LIFT OVER
MTNS. EXPECT UPSLOPE PRECIP TO CONT OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.

ETA SOUNDINGS SHOW COLUMN GETS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW AT JAY
PEAK BY 00Z MONDAY WITH JUST THE BL TEMP SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING.
THIS IS INTERESTING BECAUSE FROZEN QPF OFF ETA AT JAY PEAK SHOWS
0.90" BY MONDAY MORNING...HOWEVER WARM GROUND TEMPS AND VERY WET
NATURE OF SNOW...WL LIMIT ACCUMULATION. MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO AT MOST
ABOVE 2000 FT.

MONDAY...CYCLONIC NW UPSLOPE FLW CONTINUES WITH PRECIP STILL
EXPECTED ACRS THE MTNS ZNS. THERMAL PROFILE STILL SUPPORTS SOME
MORNING SNOW...BUT THIS WL QUICKLY CHANGE TO RAIN AND END BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS LLVLS DRY OUT. PROGGED 85H TEMPS ONLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 40S MTNS TO NEAR 50S VALLEYS.

TUESDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE AND WEAK SFC HIGH PRES FINALLY BUILDS
INTO OUR FA AND DRYS US OUT ACCORDING TO THE NAM. HOWEVER...LATEST
GFS SHOWS ANOTHER POTENT S/W AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TRACKING ACRS
OUR FA...THEREFORE WL KEEP WITH PREVIOUS FCST AND MENTION CLOUDY
SKIES AND CHC POPS.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
A PRETTY ACTIVE FLOW ACRS NRN BDR WITH SUMMER-WINTER TRANSITIONS
CONTG ALG BDR REASONS. THE BEGINNING OF THIS PD IS FEATURED BY THE
EXITING CNDN MARITIME VORTEX THAT DVLPS THIS WKND WITH A REINFORCING
S/W IN NW CYCLONIC FLOW TUES KEEPING FLOW HIGHLY AMPLITUDE. SOME
FLATTENING OF ULVL FLOW WL ALLOW SFC HIGH TO BRFLY SLIDE INTO FA
WED THEN ANTHR S/W WELL ACRS QUEBEC SLIDES BKDOOR FNT ACRS FA WITH
SLGT/CHC -SHRA ERLY THU.

A SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE AT H8 BY THU WITH ERN NEW ENGLAND
INFLUENCED BY QUEBEC S/W AND STG TROF WITH PLAINS UPR LOW ALLOWING
FOR ULVL RIDGING TO BUILD ACRS GRT LAKES INTO NY. PRETTY MUCH DRY
THU WITH THE XCPTN OF SLGT CHC ALG BKDOOR BNDRY AS MNTD ABV...THEN
AS ULVL RDG CRESTS AND MVS THRU FA FRI AS PLAINS MID-LVL S/W AND
SFC LOW LIFTS ACRS NRN GRT LAKES/ONTARIO WITH ASSOC FNTL BNDRYS MVG
ACRS FRI/SAT WITH SHRA.

AT THIS POINT...STG...COLD CNDN VORTEX IS ACRS NRN ONTARIO BUT SOME
QUESTION ON HOW MUCH OF THIS SYSTEM AND COLD AIR WE'LL SEE AT THE
END OF NXT WEEKEND.

AVIATION...
BLYR FLOW HAS BEEN RATHER WEAK AND ABUNDANT LLVL MOIST FOR LOW
CLDS/VSBY WITH MVFR-IFR CONDS. STEADIER PCPN HAS BROUGHT IFR CONDS
TO ALL LOCALES AT TIMES. STEADIEST-HVST PCPN THRU 00Z WL BE LOCATED
E OF KBTV WITH IFR CONDS DUE TO CIGS/VSBY. ELSEWHERE THRU 00Z...
MVFR-VFR CONDS DUE TO SPOTTY PCPN AND INCRSG WNDS. AFT 00Z...A SLGT
LULL IN WNDS WITH MVFR LCLZD IFR CONDS DUE TO CLDS/VSBY BUT WNDS WL
INCREASE FM W TO E OVRNGT WITH SFC WND 25G40KTS BY MIDDAY SUN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...HIGH WIND WATCH FOR VTZ001>012-016>019 FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 8
     AM MONDAY.
NY...HIGH WIND WATCH FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087 FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO
     8 AM MONDAY.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LAHIFF









FXUS61 KBTV 151909
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
310 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2005

NUMEROUS FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE THAT INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
FLOODING...HIGH WINDS...AND SOME WET SNOW FLAKES ACRS THE HIGHER
TRRN.

.SYNOPSIS...
WATER VAPOR CONTS TO SHOW TWO DISTINCT S/W'S HELPING TO CURVE OUT A
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF OVER NE CONUS. FIRST WAVE NOW 300 MILES OFF
THE NJ COAST WITH ANOTHER APPROACHING CENTRAL NY. SECOND PIECE OF
ENERGY WL CAPTURE SFC LOW AND EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECT IN THE
GULF OF MAINE AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SUNDAY. LARGE AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR DEVELOPING BEHIND S/W ENERGY ACRS EASTERN NY/SNE
ATTM WL SLOWLY PROGRESS NE INTO SOUTHERN VT THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE NE KINGDOM BY LATE EVENING. WHICH SHOULD DECREASE THE
OVERALL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF RAIN ACRS OUR FA.

REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE CONTS
TO ADVECT INTO ALL OF VT THIS AFTN. ANOTHER BAND OF PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC COLD FRNT AND ULVL DISTURBANCE IS PUSHING ACRS
DACKS/CPV ATTM WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL NY. 24 HR STP SHOWS A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES ACRS
OUR FA WITH SOME ISOLATED SPOTS APPROACHING 3" IN THE FAVORABLE SE
UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE GREEN MTNS. QUICK REVIEW OF RIVER GAUGES
INDICATE ALL RIVERS WITHIN THEIR BANKS ATTM WITH SOME SHARP RISES
NOTED ON CHAZY...SARANAC...OTTER...AND WHITE RIVERS. WL CONT TO
MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL PROBLEMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
STRONG 5H VORT LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NY WL CONT TO DIVE SE AND
ENHANCE SFC CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE
TONIGHT. THIS SFC LOW WL TRACK NORTH INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE...EXPECT LARGE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND S/W ENERGY TO
MOVE FROM PA/NY THRU SNE INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT TONIGHT AND
DECREASE THE OVERNIGHT INTENSITY/COVERAGE OF PRECIP. FEEL WE WL HAVE
A 6 TO 8 HR BREAK IN PRECIP ACRS OUR FA AS SYSTEM TRANSLATES FROM A
SYNOPTIC EVENT INTO MORE OF A MESOSCALE UPSLOPE EVENT LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. ALSO...700-500MB RH PROGGES AND 7H OMEGA SHOWS BEST
MOISTURE/LIFT MOVING FROM CENTRAL VT INTO OUR NORTHERN ZNS AND MAINE
OVERNIGHT. WL MENTION CHC POPS SOUTHERN/WESTERN AREAS TO CAT POPS NE
KINGDOM.

SUNDAY...STRONG SFC LOW (973MB) SLOWLY MOVES INTO EASTERN CANADIAN
AS NW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ACRS OUR FA. THE PRES GRADIENT WL TIGHTEN
ON SUNDAY AS THE GRADIENT BTWN HIGH PRES OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
LOW PRES OVER EASTERN CANADA INCREASES. PROGGED 85H WINDS ARE 45 TO
55 KNTS ACRS OUR ENTIRE CWA WITH 925MB WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KNTS AND BL
WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KNTS WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE INTO WIND ADVISORY.
SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS BELOW INVERISON OF 40 TO 50 KNTS...WHICH SHOULD
MIX 90 TO 95 PERCENT DOWN TO THE SFC GIVEN LLVL THERMAL PROFILE.
THIS COMBINED WITH SATURATED SOIL FROM WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN THE
PAST 8 DAYS OR SO...FEEL WINDS WL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO UPROOT TREES
AND CAUSE WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES. THEREFORE WL ISSUE HIGH WIND
WATCH FOR ENTIRE FA FROM 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. STRONG
WINDOW FOR HIGHEST WINDS WL BE 15Z SUNDAY THROUGH 03Z MONDAY. NOT
EXPECTING TO REACH GUSTS TO 58 MPH OR SUSTAINED AT 40 MPH...BUT
FEEL IMPACT WL BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT WATCH ATTM. FEEL
HIGH RESOLUTION NAM AND LOCAL WS-ETA HAVE NICE DEPICTION OF UPSLOPE
EVENT. LLVL WINDS BECOME PERPENDICULAR TO MTNS BY 12Z AS PLENTY OF
LLVL MOISTURE IS WRAPPED AROUND THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...LLVL LAPSE
RATES ARE MARGINAL...BUT FLW IS STRONG ENOUGH TO ENHANCE LIFT OVER
MTNS. EXPECT UPSLOPE PRECIP TO CONT OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.

ETA SOUNDINGS SHOW COLUMN GETS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW AT JAY
PEAK BY 00Z MONDAY WITH JUST THE BL TEMP SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING.
THIS IS INTERESTING BECAUSE FROZEN QPF OFF ETA AT JAY PEAK SHOWS
0.90" BY MONDAY MORNING...HOWEVER WARM GROUND TEMPS AND VERY WET
NATURE OF SNOW...WL LIMIT ACCUMULATION. MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO AT MOST
ABOVE 2000 FT.

MONDAY...CYCLONIC NW UPSLOPE FLW CONTINUES WITH PRECIP STILL
EXPECTED ACRS THE MTNS ZNS. THERMAL PROFILE STILL SUPPORTS SOME
MORNING SNOW...BUT THIS WL QUICKLY CHANGE TO RAIN AND END BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS LLVLS DRY OUT. PROGGED 85H TEMPS ONLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 40S MTNS TO NEAR 50S VALLEYS.

TUESDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE AND WEAK SFC HIGH PRES FINALLY BUILDS
INTO OUR FA AND DRYS US OUT ACCORDING TO THE NAM. HOWEVER...LATEST
GFS SHOWS ANOTHER POTENT S/W AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TRACKING ACRS
OUR FA...THEREFORE WL KEEP WITH PREVIOUS FCST AND MENTION CLOUDY
SKIES AND CHC POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
A PRETTY ACTIVE FLOW ACRS NRN BDR WITH SUMMER-WINTER TRANSITIONS
CONTG ALG BDR REASONS. THE BEGINNING OF THIS PD IS FEATURED BY THE
EXITING CNDN MARITIME VORTEX THAT DVLPS THIS WKND WITH A REINFORCING
S/W IN NW CYCLONIC FLOW TUES KEEPING FLOW HIGHLY AMPLITUDE. SOME
FLATTENING OF ULVL FLOW WL ALLOW SFC HIGH TO BRFLY SLIDE INTO FA
WED THEN ANTHR S/W WELL ACRS QUEBEC SLIDES BKDOOR FNT ACRS FA WITH
SLGT/CHC -SHRA ERLY THU.

A SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE AT H8 BY THU WITH ERN NEW ENGLAND
INFLUENCED BY QUEBEC S/W AND STG TROF WITH PLAINS UPR LOW ALLOWING
FOR ULVL RIDGING TO BUILD ACRS GRT LAKES INTO NY. PRETTY MUCH DRY
THU WITH THE XCPTN OF SLGT CHC ALG BKDOOR BNDRY AS MNTD ABV...THEN
AS ULVL RDG CRESTS AND MVS THRU FA FRI AS PLAINS MID-LVL S/W AND
SFC LOW LIFTS ACRS NRN GRT LAKES/ONTARIO WITH ASSOC FNTL BNDRYS MVG
ACRS FRI/SAT WITH SHRA.

AT THIS POINT...STG...COLD CNDN VORTEX IS ACRS NRN ONTARIO BUT SOME
QUESTION ON HOW MUCH OF THIS SYSTEM AND COLD AIR WE'LL SEE AT THE
END OF NXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
BLYR FLOW HAS BEEN RATHER WEAK AND ABUNDANT LLVL MOIST FOR LOW
CLDS/VSBY WITH MVFR-IFR CONDS. STEADIER PCPN HAS BROUGHT IFR CONDS
TO ALL LOCALES AT TIMES. STEADIEST-HVST PCPN THRU 00Z WL BE LOCATED
E OF KBTV WITH IFR CONDS DUE TO CIGS/VSBY. ELSEWHERE THRU 00Z...
MVFR-VFR CONDS DUE TO SPOTTY PCPN AND INCRSG WNDS. AFT 00Z...A SLGT
LULL IN WNDS WITH MVFR LCLZD IFR CONDS DUE TO CLDS/VSBY BUT WNDS WL
INCREASE FM W TO E OVRNGT WITH SFC WND 25G40KTS BY MIDDAY SUN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...HIGH WIND WATCH FOR VTZ001>012-016>019 FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 8
     AM MONDAY.
NY...HIGH WIND WATCH FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087 FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO
     8 AM MONDAY.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW








   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

                                   Not Found

   The requested URL /text/obs/roundup/ASUS51.KBTV was not found on this
   server.
     _________________________________________________________________


    Apache/2.0.46 (Red Hat) Server at [1]twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu Port
    80

References

   1. mailto:root@localhost

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