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October 2002, Week 2

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Subject:
From:
Wesley's Ski Hut <[log in to unmask]>
Reply To:
Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>
Date:
Thu, 10 Oct 2002 06:50:03 -0400
Content-Type:
text/plain
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Expires:200210102000;;576165
FPUS51 KBTV 100730
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
330 AM EDT THU OCT 10 2002


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-102000-
CALEDONIA VT-ESSEX VT-LAMOILLE VT-ORANGE VT-ORLEANS VT-WASHINGTON VT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ISLAND POND VT...MONTPELIER VT...
NEWPORT VT...RANDOLPH VT...ST. JOHNSBURY VT...STOWE VT
330 AM EDT THU OCT 10 2002

.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGH 55 TO 60. SOUTH WIND 5 TO 15 MPH.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE.
LOW IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. LIGHT SOUTH WIND. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGH AROUND 60. SOUTH WIND 5 TO 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGH IN THE LOWER 60S.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE MID 40S.
.SUNDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH IN THE
LOWER 60S.
.COLUMBUS DAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE UPPER 30S AND HIGH IN THE
LOWER 50S.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE LOWER 30S AND HIGH IN THE LOWER
50S.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE MID 30S AND HIGH IN THE LOWER
50S.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 100556
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
156 AM EDT WED OCT 10 2002

CURRENTLY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES COVERING MOST OF FORECAST
AREA. SOME DECENT BREAKS ACROSS SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES THERE TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN REST OF
AREA...WHERE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MORE LOW TO MID-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS HAS KEPT TEMPS UP.  IN FACT KBTV RUNNING SOME 20 DEGREES
WARMER THAN AT THIS TIME LAST NIGHT. LIGHT BAND OF SHOWERS/SPRINKLES
FROM KART TO KMPV ALONG WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE ZONE REFLECTS WHAT'S
LEFT OF WASHED OUT SFC BOUNDARY FROM YESTERDAY.

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...TROUBLESOME FORECAST AT BEST...AS GUIDANCE
GIVING DISPARATE SOLUTIONS. AS ANCHORED MARITIME ANTICYCLONE HOLDS
FIRM...MOIST SE FLOW ENCROACHES INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES...KEEPING TEMPS DOWN...WITH SPOTTY -SHRA/DZ FORMING LATER THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE TAPERED POPS FROM SE TO NW
ACCORDINGLY. HAVE KEPT FRIDAY MOSTLY UNCHANGED...AS GFS ENSEMBLES
APPEAR TO HAVE A BETTER IDEA WITH LOW PRESSURE EVOLVING OUT OF
INVERTED MID-ATLANTIC SFC TROUGH...AND QUICKLY SKIRTING OUT TO SEA
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. ETA SOLUTION OF PROLONGED OVERRUNNING AT
305-310K ON FRIDAY LOOKS OVERDONE.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DECENT DAY ON SATURDAY ALBEIT ON THE
BREEZY SIDE AS SOUTH FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF SHARP AND STRONG 500
HPA TROF APPROACHING FROM THE NW. WILL KEEP IDEA OF INCREASING
CLOUDS ON SUNDAY WITH AREAWIDE POPS. WILL NOT INTRODUCE THUNDER AT
THIS TIME...THOUGH EXTREMELY SHARP NATURE OF TROUGH...AND 850 HPA
TEMPS GOING FROM +10 TO -8 IN LESS THAN 12 HRS BEARS WATCHING.

AFTERWARDS...REMAINDER OF EXTENDED UNCHANGED WITH SEASONABLY COOL
AND DRY CONDITIONS...AND LARGE CENTRAL U.S. ANTICYCLONE IN CONTROL.
AS HIGH DRIFTS TO THE EAST BY LATER IN THE WEEK...RETURN FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME MODERATION...WITH NEXT CHANCES OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION NOT UNTIL FRIDAY.

.BTV...NONE.

JMG








FXUS61 KBTV 100128
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
928 PM EDT WED OCT 9 2002

SAT LOOP AND SFC OBS SHOWING CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FCST AREA AT
TIME...AND EXPECTING THIS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.  WILL REMOVE
MENTION OF FOG IN THE ZONES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...
AS CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA SHOULD PREVENT ANY WIDEPREAD
RADIATION FOG FROM FORMING OVERNIGHT.

SAT LOOP AND LATEST MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTING MORE CLOUDS AROUND AREA
ON THURSDAY...SO WILL CHANGE THURSDAY FCST FROM MOSTLY SUNNY TO
BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY.

COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MOVING EAST FROM
LAKE ONTARIO AT TIME...SO WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES
OVERNIGHT IN OUR SOUTHERN VT ZONES. KMSS AND KPLB HAD SOME SPRINKLES
EARLIER THIS EVENING...BUT NO MEASURABLE PRECIP. RADAR LOOP SHOWING
THE LAST BAND OF SPRINKLES OVER NE VT MOVG INTO NORTHERN NH AT
TIME...SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY SPRINKLES IN NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT.

MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE WIND FORECAST IN SOME OF THE ZONES
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST.

.BTV...NONE.

WGH






FXUS61 KBTV 091818
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
217 PM EDT WED OCT 9 2002

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ONTARIO/SOUTHWEST ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.  DYNAMIC SUPPORT
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE BORDER.  LIGHT PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ONTARIO/SOUTHWEST QUEBEC ALL MORNING...BUT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP KEEP IT JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  THUS WILL BE ABLE TO
GO BACK TO THE TRADITIONAL ZONE GROUPINGS FOR THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST.  STARTING TO SEE CLEARING SKIES AROUND THE TORONTO AREA
AND THIS BACK EDGE TO THE THICKER MID CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT.  THUS WILL MENTION CLEARING
SKIES FOR LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.  SOUTHERN AREAS...WHICH HAVE BEEN MOSTLY SUNNY ALL DAY...WILL
ONLY SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT.  RISING DEW POINTS AND A
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT OVERNIGHT WILL MAKE FOR A MILDER NIGHT THAN LAST
NIGHT.  ALONG AND EAST OF THE GREENS...WHERE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER...WOULD EXPECT SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT
AND WILL ADD TO THE FORECAST.

WEAK COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WILL ESSENTIALLY WASH OUT OVER THE AREA ON
THURSDAY.  FEEL LACK OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT/LIFTING MECHANISMS WILL
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY PRECIPITATION AND WILL NOT MENTION ANY
PRECIPITATION FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
TRENDS SUGGEST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 4 TO 6 DEGREES WARMER THAN
TODAY...THUS 55 TO 65 LOOKS REAL GOOD.

WILL KEEP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DRY FOR NOW AS DATA SUGGEST
PRECIPITATION WILL EXIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION DURING THIS
PERIOD.  FEEL PRECIPITATION FORECASTS BY THE ETA ARE PUTTING TOO
MUCH PRECIPITATION NORTHWARD ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH AND THE AVN
IS PROBABLY OVERDONE WITH ITS DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TO THE SOUTH.
LARGE HIGH CENTERED OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL BE ABLE TO CREATE A SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  DESPITE A DRY
FORECAST AT THIS TIME...THIS TYPE OF PATTERN CAN BRING MOISTURE IN
OFF THE ATLANTIC...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE GREENS.  THIS PATTERN
WOULD THEN BRING LOW CLOUDS/DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA...BUT
GIVEN THE INCONSISTENCY WILL NOT JUMP ON IT JUST YET.  WILL HOWEVER
TREND TO SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY GIVEN THE
STRENGTHENING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW.

ENSEMBLE DATA FROM LAST NIGHT IS CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING LARGE
UPPER TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT TO THE REGION SOMETIME ON SUNDAY.
SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE FASTER AND WILL UP THE TIMING OF THE
PRECIPITATION TO THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT TIME PERIOD AND KEEP
COLUMBUS DAY DRY AS THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ALREADY PASSED THE
AREA.  STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WILL TAKE
PLACE.  850 MB TEMPERATURES LESS THAN ZERO ARE JUXTAPOSED WITH THE
TAIL END OF THE PRECIPITATION.  THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AT THE TAIL END OF THE EVENT
OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  BECAUSE THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY SEEMS RATHER
SHORT FOR THIS CHANGEOVER OF PRECIPITATION...WILL NOT MENTION IT AT
THIS TIME.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY...TUESDAY...AND
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WORK ZONES IN ALBWRKCWF BY 300 PM.

EVENSON

.BTV...NONE.






   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

445
ASUS51 KBTV 100905
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
500 AM EDT THU OCT 10 2002

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-101000-
_____VERMONT_____

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    54  47  77 S9        30.26S
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    46  43  89 VRB5      30.34R
MORRISVILLE    MOCLDY    47  44  90 SE3       30.31R
ST. JOHNSBURY    N/A     47  42  83 CALM      30.31S
RUTLAND        CLOUDY    52  43  71 SE10      30.31R
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    49  45  86 CALM      30.35S
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    53  47  79 N5        30.31R
$$

______KEY______
VSB  - VISIBILITY IN MILES
WCI  - WIND CHILL INDEX
HX   - HEAT INDEX



                        LSC WEATHER CENTER FORECAST
               [1]Lyndon State College Meteorology Home Page
                    12:00 PM, Wednesday October 9, 2002
                     STUDENT METEOROLOGIST: Adam Gautie
       ** The latest forecast for Northeast & North Central Vermont**
       ** The area bounded by Waterbury, St. Johnsbury, and Newport**

   This afternoon: Becoming mostly cloudy with a chance of a sprinkle or
   two. It will remain cool with highs near 55. Winds will be light and
   variable.

   Tonight: Remaining cloudy but temperatures should not be as cold as
   last night. Lows should only dip to the lower 40s. Winds will increase
   from the SSE at 5-10 mph.

   Thursday: It should turn out to be a pretty nice day with partial
   sunshine and highs moderating back to near 60. Southerly winds at 5-10
   mph.

   Thursday night: Partly cloudy and cool with lows dropping into the mid
   40s. Winds will be light out of the south.

                             Extended Forecast

   Friday: Scattered clouds and sunshine with area highs expected to be
   in the lower 60s.

   Saturday: A beautiful fall day is expected with sunshine and warming
   temperatures reaching into the upper 60s.

   Sunday: Remaining sunny and warmer with highs in the upper 60s.

                            Forecast Discussion

   Last nights official low temperature reached 28 degrees in St.
   Johnsbury. This pool of colder air associated with a high-pressure
   system located just north of the region will push of to the northeast
   as a warm front approaches from the southwest. Little precipitation is
   related to this front so we should remain mostly dry with perhaps a
   few sprinkles. Low pressure over the Great Lakes region will move a
   cold front through the North East Kingdom later tonight into tomorrow
   morning but not much cold air is followed behind helping to moderate
   our temperatures for later this week. This weekend should turn out to
   be perfect for leaf-peepers with sunshine and warmer temperatures
   reaching into the upper 60s.

References

   1. http://apollo.lsc.vsc.edu/

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