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March 2016, Week 3

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Subject:
From:
"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>
Reply To:
Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>
Date:
Fri, 18 Mar 2016 06:50:02 -0400
Content-Type:
text/plain
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text/plain (213 lines)
Expires:201603182000;;251534
FPUS51 KBTV 181037
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
635 AM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016


VTZ006-182000-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
635 AM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016

.TODAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY THIS
MORNING...THEN PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION A DUSTING TO 1 INCH. HIGHS IN THE MID
30S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
70 PERCENT. 
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL
MIDNIGHT...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS AROUND 13.
NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW
20 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN THE MORNING. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 8 ABOVE. NORTH WINDS AROUND
10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS 10 TO 15. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 30. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS 15 TO 20. 
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT. 
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT. 

$$


Expires:201603181100;;251191
ASUS41 KBTV 181030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-181100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     LGT SNOW  34  31  88 NW10      29.64R FOG     WCI  26  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    36  33  89 CALM      29.61S                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    35  33  92 S6        29.59S WCI  30          
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     36  33  89 MISG      29.56S                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    35  33  92 SW3       29.57S                  
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    40  31  69 CALM      29.63R                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    39  28  65 W7        29.64R                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    41  29  62 VRB5      29.63S                  
HIGHGATE*      LGT SNOW  29  27  94 N15       29.67R WCI  18          
NEWPORT*         N/A    N/A N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    39  32  76 W8        29.69S                  
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     36 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     36 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     27 N/A N/A N14         N/A  WCI  15          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     37  34  87 N18         N/A  WCI  27          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     43  32  65 W6          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;246732
FXUS61 KBTV 180833
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
433 AM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. SOME MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS
AND THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT. COLDER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN MUCH OF THE AREA EXPERIENCE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE 30S. DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 433 AM EDT FRIDAY...COLD FRONT HAS JUST ABOUT REACHED THE
CANADIAN BORDER AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING.
BAND OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND WITH DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW IN
THE LOW LEVELS...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. FALLING TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL
CAUSE RAIN SHOWERS TO CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW EXPECTED...BUT
TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE
PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND THIS WILL RESULT IN
THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF INCHES. SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW
NOTICEABLE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN QUEBEC PROVINCE EARLY THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL PROGRESS
ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THUS HELPING TO BRING AN END TO
THE PRECIPITATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE EARLY
TODAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA FOR NOTICEABLY
DRIER AIR AND CLEARING SKIES. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO WEAKEN
AND TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM FALLING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS. READINGS THIS LOW HAVE NOT BEEN EXPERIENCED IN
ABOUT TWO WEEKS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 433 AM EDT FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY
AND COLDER THAN NORMAL WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE REGION. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. ON SUNDAY WILL SEE INCREASE OF CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH AS A
COASTAL SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD...AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF OUR
AREA. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BUT REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 433 AM EDT FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO LACK CONSISTENCY FOR
POTENTIAL COASTAL SYSTEM LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. 00Z RUNS NOW
SHOW MAJORITY OF MEMBERS WITH LOW CENTER PASSING OUTSIDE THE
BENCHMARK. GFS KEEPS PRECIPITATION OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA
ENTIRELY. THE NAM TRACK IS THE FURTHEST WESTWARD AND EVEN INSIDE
THE BENCHMARK...THIS SOLUTION SHOWS THE MOST SNOW FOR OUR AREA.
THE ECMWF HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD AND NOW PASSES OUTSIDE THE
BENCHMARK AS WELL...PRECIPITATION ONLY REACHING EASTERN VERMONT
WITH THIS SOLUTION. HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON POPS AND QPF DUE TO
GFS AND ECMWF KEEPING US A BIT ON THE FRINGES ACCORDING TO 00Z
RUNS. WEATHER REMAINS FAIRLY ACTIVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BUT NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS AT THIS TIME. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND BACK ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...COLD FRONT IS ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC
PROVINCE EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL BE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS INCREASING INTO THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. AT
THE SAME TIME...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL QUICKLY LOWER INTO
THE IFR AND LIFR CATEGORIES THROUGH ABOUT 15Z AS LOW CLOUDS AND
RAIN/SNOW DEVELOP. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 15Z
WITH VISIBILITIES GOING BACK TO VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD AS PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END. CEILINGS WILL GO BACK
INTO THE MVFR AND VFR CATEGORIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
AS WELL. THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z
BEFORE TAPERING OFF.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SAT - 18Z SUN...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z SUN - 12Z TUE...VFR/MVFR WITH CHANCE IFR AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
UP THE EAST COAST.

12Z TUE - 00Z WED...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...EVENSON/LAHIFF

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