Expires:201805202000;;239626
FPUS51 KBTV 200755
ZFPBTV
Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
352 AM EDT Sun May 20 2018
VTZ006-202000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
352 AM EDT Sun May 20 2018
.TODAY...Cloudy with showers likely this morning, then partly sunny
with a slight chance of showers this afternoon. Highs in the upper
60s. West winds 10 to 15 mph, becoming northwest this afternoon.
Chance of rain 70 percent.
.TONIGHT...Clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Northwest winds 10 to
15 mph.
.MONDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. West winds 10 to 15 mph.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Southwest winds
around 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the lower
70s. South winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the lower 50s.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs around 70.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s.
.THURSDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s.
.FRIDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 50.
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s.
$$
Expires:201805201100;;246424
ASUS41 KBTV 201030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2018
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.
VTZ001>019-201100-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON MOCLDY 60 57 89 S17G24 29.79S
MONTPELIER CLOUDY 62 60 93 SW9G17 29.84F
MORRISVILLE MOCLDY 61 59 93 S8 29.79F
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 54 54 100 MISG 29.81F
LYNDONVILLE* CLOUDY 52 51 98 SE7 29.84S FOG
MIDDLEBURY* CLOUDY 60 58 92 S6 29.83F
RUTLAND* CLOUDY 65 61 87 VRB6 29.86F
SPRINGFIELD CLOUDY 53 53 100 CALM 29.88F
HIGHGATE* DRIZZLE 59 57 93 SW6 29.78R
NEWPORT* DRIZZLE 56 56 100 CALM 29.79S
BENNINGTON CLOUDY 66 60 81 SW7 29.88S
ISLAND POND* N/A 54 N/A N/A NE2 N/A
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 52 N/A N/A MISG N/A
UNION VILLAGE* N/A 54 N/A N/A MISG N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 54 N/A N/A SW36 N/A
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND* N/A 55 54 94 SW17G25 N/A
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 54 52 94 S26 N/A
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 59 59 100 SE17 N/A
$$
Expires:No;;240013
FXUS61 KBTV 200802
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
402 AM EDT Sun May 20 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push through the region on this morning,
bringing showers to an end with clearing in the afternoon. High
pressure quickly builds back in tonight and Monday with clear
skies and warm temperatures. Other than a chance of showers
Tuesday and Wednesday, most of the week ahead looks dry with
temperatures on the warm side of normal.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 210 AM EDT Sunday...An upper level trof and associated
cold front will move through the region between 12 and 18z
today. It will be preceded with showers most numerous over
northern New York and northern VT. There is some very limited
elevated instability and a few pulses of lightning detected in
Ontario last hour but not enough to be concerned with. Some
light to moderate rainfall has been seen on MRMS QPE in the
showers, so another few tenths of an inch of precipitation is
possible.
Drier air will follow the frontal passage, bringing the showers
to an end this morning and eventually allowing for some sunshine
Sunday afternoon, perhaps a bit more stratocu in the mountains
with developing NW flow. 925mb temps get up to around 12C at BTV
which should bring high temps from the mid 60s in the higher
elevations to lower 70s in the wider valleys.
Clear skies will dominate Sunday night and Monday with high
pressure building into the region. Low temps will range from the
mid 30s in parts of the Adirondacks and extreme NEK to mid 40s
near Lake Champlain. 925 temps on Monday get back up to 14-15C
so it will be a little warmer with highs in the 70s, perhaps
upper 70s in a few warm spots.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 340 AM EDT Sunday...no big changes from the 00z guidance,
so the forecast remains fairly similar to the previous version.
Quiet and dry weather Monday night. Still looking at a weak
upper level trough to swing across the region during the day. As
it approaches, it will pull clouds and moisture toward the
region from the south. Latest model trends indicate that the
thicker clouds will likely be across southern areas closer to
the deepest moisture. Those clouds will also keep it a smidge
cooler (upper 60s-lower 70s) in our southern areas. 00z NAM and
BTV 4km WRF indicate that with the slightly more sunshine and
warmer temperatures (mid-upper 70s) closer to the Canadian
border, minimal surface based instability will develop and
result in a few showers, perhaps an isolated t-storm, forming
along the thermal gradient resulting from the more sun vs more
clouds region. All in all, still appears most of the day will be
dry for most folks. PoPs remain in the 30-40% range for mid
afternoon thru early evening. Any showers dissipate by late
Tuesday evening, resulting in clearing skies.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 340 AM EDT Sunday...00z guidance all seem to be pretty
similar to one another, and in line with prior runs. Should be a
fairly dry period, with likely summer-like conditions at the
end of the week. A few notes concerning the forecast for each
day follows...
Wednesday: A mostly dry cool front should push southward during
the day. Temperatures aloft south of the front will be quite
warm (16-19C @ 925mb), so southern valley areas should make a
run at 80F before the front arrives. Northern areas will still
top out in the lower-mid 70s. Given pretty dry airmass in place
prior to the front, don't think there will be much in the way of
shower activity. Have painted in generally 20-30% PoPs. Clear
with seasonable temperatures Wednesday night.
Thursday: 925mb temperatures will be down to 9-11C, but this
will still result in near normal temperatures, with highs in the
upper 60s to lower 70s. Ridging at lower levels will result in a
sunny, dry day.
Friday: Looks like upper level ridging builds to our west.
Although flow aloft will still be northwest, there will be
anomalously warm air in place across central Canada which will
begin advecting into our region. The GFS, Canadian and ECMWF
models are all consistent with 925mb temperatures in the 17-20C
range. Typical rule of thumb for the warm season under sunny
skies is to add 10C to those temperatures to get a rough
estimate of high temperatures at lower elevations. That rule
gives 27-30C, which equates to low/mid 80s. At this point, most
statistical MOS guidance is still much lower than that, so I
did go higher than those models, and trended about 5 degrees
warmer than previous forecast. Painted in highs around 80F for
valley regions and mid/upper 70s elsewhere. This may still end
up being a conservative forecast if the recent model trends are
correct.
Saturday: Upper ridging moves nearer to the region, though
low/mid level flow turns more southwest and starts to advect in
moisture. A bit more uncertainty as to how warm it may get.
925mb temperatures range 14-17C per ECMWF, 19-22C per Canadian
and 20-23C in the GFS, which cover a range supportive of
potential highs in the upper 70s to upper 80s (which is all
above normal). Again, statistical guidance is all closer to the
low end of that temperature range. I did opt to go a few
degrees above, but only to around the 80F mark. Also some
indications that with some extra moisture around, we could get
daytime heating showers or t-storm and that would act to keep
things a bit "cooler". Have 20-30% PoPs for the shower
potential. However, it's still possible the temperature forecast
is again conservative and it could feel much more like mid-
summer to kick off the holiday weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z MONDAY...Mainly MVFR in showers through about 15z
then becoming VFR behind a cold front through the rest of the
period. LLWS continues in the forecast with 35-40 kt SW winds in
the lower 2000 ft AGL. South winds at BTV will be gusty up to
30 kt until after sunrise before diminishing. There is some
elevated instability, with some potential for convective like
showers, thus can't rule out brief period of IFR visibilities
and rumble of thunder between 06-10z. Confidence is marginal on
exact location therefore have not mentioned in TAF. Otherwise,
winds will gradually shift to NW as front moves through between
12-18z. Expecting winds to be between 10-15 kt with gusts up to
20 kt possible. With advection of drier air, ceilings will lift
with some SCT-BKN low and middle clouds this afternoon.
Outlook...
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 210 AM EDT Sunday...A Lake Wind Advisory for south winds
of 15 to 25 kts remains in effect early this morning. South
winds will shift to northwest late this morning and decrease to
10 to 15 knots.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Sisson
NEAR TERM...Sisson
SHORT TERM...Nash
LONG TERM...Nash
AVIATION...Sisson
MARINE...Sisson
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
SkiVt-L is brought to you by the University of Vermont.
To unsubscribe, visit http://list.uvm.edu/archives/skivt-l.html
|
