Expires:202207032000;;603354
FPUS51 KBTV 031028
ZFPBTV
Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
624 AM EDT Sun Jul 3 2022
VTZ018-032000-
Eastern Addison-
Including the cities of Bristol and Ripton
624 AM EDT Sun Jul 3 2022
.TODAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. Northwest winds
10 to 15 mph.
.TONIGHT...Clear. Lows around 50. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph
until midnight, becoming light and variable.
.INDEPENDENCE DAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. West
winds around 10 mph.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s. Southwest
winds around 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the mid 70s. South winds
around 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the upper 50s. Chance of
rain 70 percent.
.WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Highs in the lower
70s. Lows in the lower 50s.
.THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Highs in the mid
70s. Lows in the upper 50s.
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the lower 70s.
.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 50s.
Highs around 70.
$$
Expires:202207031100;;603404
ASUS41 KBTV 031030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SUN JUL 03 2022
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.
VTZ001>019-031100-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON MOCLDY 66 45 46 SW6 29.95R
MONTPELIER MOCLDY 56 49 77 CALM 30.00R
MORRISVILLE MOCLDY 54 50 86 CALM 29.95S
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 53 52 96 MISG 29.95R
LYNDONVILLE* FAIR 52 51 96 NE3 29.98R
MIDDLEBURY* FAIR 60 52 76 CALM 29.97S
RUTLAND* MOCLDY 54 53 97 SE3 29.99R
SPRINGFIELD CLOUDY 56 52 86 CALM 29.97R
HIGHGATE* FAIR 62 52 70 CALM 29.95R
NEWPORT* FAIR 59 46 61 S3 29.96S
BENNINGTON CLOUDY 54 52 93 CALM 30.01R
ISLAND POND* N/A 48 N/A N/A SE1 N/A
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 50 N/A N/A MISG N/A
LAKE EDEN* N/A 50 N/A N/A CALM N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 54 N/A N/A W25 N/A
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 66 46 48 W18 N/A
$$
Expires:No;;603535
FXUS61 KBTV 031033
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
633 AM EDT Sun Jul 3 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring dry conditions and cool temperatures to the
region through Independence Day. Precipitation chances return Monday
night through late Tuesday evening as a frontal system moves through
the region. Temperatures remain below normal through Wednesday
before warming back to around average late week when conditions
become more unsettled and periods of precipitation become possible.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 633 AM EDT Sunday...Quick update to the morning forecast
to adjust for a bit more mid/high cloud cover across
central/southern VT for the next few hours. These clouds should
exit the region though by 9-10 AM with just a few fair weather
cumulus and wisps of cirrus developing through the day.
Previous Discussion...A quiet period of weather is expected for
the remainder of the holiday weekend as surface high pressure over
the Great Lakes this morning will slow drift over the Northeast.
Temperatures will run about 3-5 degrees below normal for early July
owing to west/northwest flow aloft with 925mb temps of +15-18C
supporting highs generally in the mid/upper 70s, except low 70s in
the Adirondacks and lows 60s on the summits. Overnight lows will
follow suit ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s. As far as sky
cover goes, just a few passing cirrus are expected today and a dry
secondary cold front north of the Canadian border will bring some
lower clouds across northern areas tonight. Otherwise, increasing
cloud cover is expected for July 4th ahead of our next system but
shouldn't impact any fireworks displays.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 333 AM EDT Sunday...A period of unsettled wx is likely on
Tues/Tue Night associated with our next system. Large scale pattern
continues to feature upper lvl ridge anchored over the Central
Plains with mid/upper lvl trof prevailing acrs the NE CONUS. The
combination of embedded s/w energy, pw values in the 1.5 to 1.7"
range, and 1008 mb low pres tracking acrs our cwa, wl produce a
period of showers with embedded thunder on Tues/Tues Night. Given
moisture profiles and warm cloud depths of 12-13kft, localized heavy
downpours wl be possible, similar to our last system on Friday
Night. Still some uncertainty on timing of system and eventual track
of sfc low pres, as latest guidance is trending slightly further
north toward the International Border. This would place our cwa in
the warmer sector with the potential for slightly better
instability, if some sun/sfc heating could occur on Tues. Soundings
indicating nearly moist adiabatic profiles with potential for
clouds, so have just schc for thunder in grids for now, but this
could change. In addition, soundings due show strengthening mid lvl
winds of 40 to 50 knots, helping to enhance deep layer shear in the
45 to 55 knot range associated with system on Tues. Given
dynamics/forcing and shear parameters, if we can get additional
heating/instability Tues would have the potential to be an active wx
day. Otherwise, did mention some low chc pops on Monday Night acrs
the SLV/northern NY associated with warm frnt feature and mid lvl
moisture/embedded s/w energy. NAM is slightly more robust with
feature than GFS, with some support from ECMWF. Given the slightly
northern shift in sfc low pres track, have trended temps warmer on
Tues, mainly l/m 70s near the International Border to l/m 80s
southern zns. Lows generally in the 50s to near 60F.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 333 AM EDT Sunday...Little overall change in synoptic scale
pattern is anticipated for the long term. This wl result in a
similar type pattern we have experienced much of this summer, with
comfortable temps/low humidity, near normal precip and minimal
impactful or hazardous wx. Next potential system arrives on Friday
into Sat, but given time frame, have noted a large spread in
guidance with regards to timing in fairly progressive west/northwest
flow aloft. For now have mention just schc/chc pops during this time
period, with the idea of fine tuning pops as agreement becomes
better in guide. Did knock 3 to 5 degrees off NBM for Thur morning
lows, as both ECMWF/GFS indicate 1020mb high pres overhead and
mostly clear skies, but with westerly flow aloft wl have to monitor
potential for some high clouds streaking acrs fa. Have placed temps
in the mid 40s to mid 50s for now. Otherwise, expecting highs mid
70s to lower 80s with comfortable overnight lows in the upper 40s to
upper 50s depending upon location/elevation, warmest in urban heat
islands of the CPV.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 12Z Monday...VFR conditions will prevail through the
period. SCT-BKN mid/high clouds over central/southern VT this
morning will exit by mid-morning with just some fair weather mid
clouds and wisps of cirrus developing through the day. Late
afternoon into the evening some additional mid clouds will
encroach upon the Canadian border as a weak boundary approaches
before trending back to SCT cirrus towards daybreak Monday.
Variable winds 5kts or less early this morning will trend west-
northwest at 8-12kts through the day with isolated gusts up
towards 18kts, then abate to nearly calm by 03Z.
Outlook...
Independence Day: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Lahiff
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