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Expires:201507052000;;109662
FPUS51 KBTV 050721
ZFPBTV
ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
318 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
VTZ006-052000-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
318 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.TODAY...PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
.MONDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
.MONDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN
40 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. CHANCE OF RAIN
50 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN
THE MID 50S. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.
$$
Expires:201507051100;;117155
ASUS41 KBTV 051030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SUN JUL 05 2015
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.
VTZ001>019-051100-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON MOCLDY 62 58 86 S3 30.03R
MONTPELIER FOG 54 53 97 CALM 30.07R VSB<1/4
MORRISVILLE FOG 57 55 93 CALM 30.05R VSB 1/4
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 58 56 93 MISG 30.02R
LYNDONVILLE* FOG 56 55 97 CALM 30.06R VSB<1/4
MIDDLEBURY* FOG 59 59 100 CALM 30.05R VSB 3/4
RUTLAND* PTCLDY 55 52 88 CALM 30.07R
SPRINGFIELD CLOUDY 54 54 100 CALM 30.06R FOG
HIGHGATE* CLOUDY 61 59 92 S3 30.01R
NEWPORT* FAIR 55 55 99 SW6 30.04R FOG
BENNINGTON CLOUDY 56 54 93 CALM 30.07R FOG
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 54 N/A N/A MISG N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 54 N/A N/A NW16 N/A
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND* N/A 64 61 88 S13 N/A
COLCHESTER RF* N/A N/A N/A N/A S15 N/A
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 61 61 100 S9 N/A
$$
Expires:No;;110843
FXUS61 KBTV 050801
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
401 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEARING
SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. A SPOT
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT TODAY...HOWEVER THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL TROF
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WITH FINAL 5H VORT AND WEAK RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID
LVL MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN NY ATTM. THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL
MOVE EAST INTO NORTHERN VT TODAY...RESULTING IN SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER THE NEK. OTHERWISE...GIVEN PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE AND TEMPS REACHING CONVECTIVE VALUES EXPECT DIURNALLY
DRIVEN FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. THESE CLOUDS WILL
HAVE LIMITED VERTICAL GROWTH DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AND BUILDING
HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGE. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 12-14C
TODAY AND WILL SUPPORT HIGHS MID/UPPER 70S NEK/MTN TOWNS TO LOWER
80S CPV/SLV WITH A FEW WARMER READINGS IN THE MID 80S POSSIBLE NEAR
BTV AND MSS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
EXPECTED. THIS DEEP DRY LAYER AND WARMING THICKNESS VALUES WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SOUTH WINDS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO WITH
VALUES BTWN 14-16C...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MOISTURE NOW LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY AND
ASSOCIATED 5H CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TWD THE NE CONUS AHEAD
OF NEXT TROF. BOTH GFS/NAM AGREE ON QUICKLY ADVECTING 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION ON MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40
KNOTS. MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS ON TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR CWA...AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF.
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON IT EXTREMELY CHALLENGING TO DETERMINE AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL PRE TROF MOISTURE
AND SHOWERS...COMBINED WITH DELAYED ARRIVAL OF ACTUAL SFC COLD FRONT
AND DYNAMICS ALOFT. AS IN MANY CASES ALREADY THIS SUMMER...BEST
DYNAMICS AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY LOOKS TO OCCUR AFT
00Z WEDS...WHEN INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL. IN ADDITION...BEST 0 TO 3 AND
0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES LAG BEHIND THE ACTUAL FRONT AND ARE CLOSELY
TIED TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER SOUTHERN CANADA LATE TUESDAY
AFTN. MY THINKING IS THAT WE WILL SOME SOME SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS
WITH INITIAL SURGE OF 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED VORT BTWN
15Z-20Z TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME CLEARING AS OUR CWA WILL BE BTWN
SYSTEMS. THIS WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE REGION WITH SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG BY 00Z...BUT BETTER FORCING/FRONT IS
STILL WEST OF THE SLV. AS FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION BTWN 03Z-
09Z SFC INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
LOCATED TO OUR NORTH...SUPPORTING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED STORMS. GIVEN SCENARIO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE...BUT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWN POURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HAVE NOTED PW VALUES SURGE AHEAD OF BOUNDARY BTWN 1.60 AND
1.80". TEMPS ON TUES WILL BE TRICKY WITH CLOUDS...BUT 925MB TEMPS
WARM TO NEAR 20C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH
INCREASED DWPTS...MAKING IF FEEL MUGGY/SUMMER-LIKE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
COMING AROUND TO A CONSENSUS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD THUS MAKING
AN INCREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE THAT HAS BEEN LACKING AS OF LATE.
THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE
NORTH AND ACROSS REGION TUE NGT/WED FOR SHRA/TSRA THREAT SLIDING
EAST AS WEDNESDAY PROGRESSES. THEREAFTER...MODELS HAVE MERGED TO A
SIMILAR SOLUTION OF PREDOMIANT ZONAL FLOW WITH ANY POTENTIAL SHORT
WAVES IN THE FLOW MINOR WITH A DISCONNECT TO ANY MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH. THEREFORE...DO I DARE SAY IT A DRY PERIOD FOR THU-FRI AND
POSSIBLY SAT BEFORE ANOTHER SHRA/TSRA THREAT SUNDAY.
AFTER A WARM TUE...SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE LONGER TERM WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S/80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR IN FOG/BR
EARLY THIS MORNING AS CLOUD DECK SCATTERS OUT AND RADIATIONAL
COOLING COMBINED WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO
YESTERDAYS RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/BR WITH IFR/LIFR
STILL LIKELY AT LEAST FOR A TIME AT MPV/SLK.
ANY FOG/BR LIFTS AND SCATTERS OUT AFTER 12Z WITH ONLY SCATTERED
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF TODAY. WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE EARLY (EXCEPT SE 4-5KT AT RUT) TURN WESTERLY ON
SUNDAY...BUT REMAINING LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
06Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR. IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 08-12Z MON.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: VFR W/SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV
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