Expires:202101262100;;515881
FPUS51 KBTV 261117
ZFPBTV
Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
614 AM EST Tue Jan 26 2021
VTZ018-262100-
Eastern Addison-
Including the cities of Bristol and Ripton
614 AM EST Tue Jan 26 2021
.TODAY...Partly sunny this morning, then mostly cloudy with a
chance of light snow this afternoon. Little or no snow
accumulation. Highs in the mid 20s. Light and variable winds,
becoming east around 10 mph this afternoon. Chance of snow
50 percent.
.TONIGHT...Snow. Snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches. Near steady
temperature around 20. Southeast winds around 10 mph. Gusts up to
25 mph until midnight. Chance of snow near 100 percent.
.WEDNESDAY...Snow. Total snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches.
Highs in the upper 20s. Light and variable winds. Chance of snow
near 100 percent.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Snow showers likely. Little or no additional
snow accumulation. Lows around 16. North winds around 10 mph.
Chance of snow 60 percent.
.THURSDAY...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers.
Little or no snow accumulation. Highs around 19. Northwest winds
15 to 20 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow
showers. Much colder with lows 5 below to zero.
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs around 5 above.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Cold with lows 5 below to zero.
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Highs around 10 above.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Cold with lows around zero.
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs around 20.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows 5 to 10 above.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow. Highs
in the mid 20s.
$$
Expires:202101261200;;516263
ASUS41 KBTV 261131
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2021
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.
VTZ001>019-261200-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON CLOUDY 20 14 77 E3 30.09F
MONTPELIER CLOUDY 11 9 92 CALM 30.08F
MORRISVILLE CLOUDY 15 12 88 CALM 30.09S
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 12 7 80 MISG 30.08S
LYNDONVILLE* CLOUDY 12 9 89 CALM 30.07S
MIDDLEBURY* CLOUDY 15 12 86 CALM 30.07F
RUTLAND* CLEAR 6 4 91 SE10 30.06F WCI -9
SPRINGFIELD MOCLDY 6 2 83 CALM 30.09F
HIGHGATE* CLOUDY 21 14 76 SE3 30.10S
NEWPORT* CLOUDY 12 10 90 CALM 30.07F
BENNINGTON CLEAR 9 4 80 CALM 30.02F
ISLAND POND* N/A 10 N/A N/A CALM N/A
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 7 N/A N/A MISG N/A
LAKE EDEN* N/A 16 N/A N/A CALM N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 14 N/A N/A CALM N/A
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
$$
Expires:No;;515985
FXUS61 KBTV 261122
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
622 AM EST Tue Jan 26 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
A mix of clouds and sun this morning will give way to overcast
skies and accumulating light to moderate snows tonight into
Wednesday morning. Light snows or snow showers wane in coverage,
but continue on and off Wednesday afternoon into Thursday
before drier and colder air arrives for the end of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 622 AM EST Tuesday...Other than a few tweaks to trends in
hourly temperatures and cloud cover through 15Z, no forecast
changes were needed as of the 600 am hour. Have a great day!
Prior discussion...
The forecast remains largely on track for the next 36 hours.
Low pressure will track through the Ohio Valley today and into
New York/western New England this evening while weakening and
transferring energy well offshore. Broad moisture and warm
thermal advection through the mid-levels associated with this
feature will arrive from the southwest in the late
afternoon/early evening time frame with a light accumulating
snowfall expected tonight into Wednesday morning. Somewhat
better isentropic lift still looks on track to affect the
southern portions of our Adirondacks and into southern VT before
weakening further north and east. As such, Winter Weather
Advisories will remain in effect for Essex County, NY and
Rutland/Windsor counties in VT for a general 2-5 inch event and
a few 6 inch spot totals near summit level. Elsewhere, totals
will be a tad lighter - mainly from 1-3 inches in lower,
habitable elevations below 2,500 feet.
By Wednesday afternoon the areal coverage of light snows will tend
to lessen as warm thermal advection processes gradually fade away.
Moisture does linger across the area however, so solid chances of on
and off light snows/snow showers will continue for most areas into
the early evening hours. Additional accumulations will be very
minor.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 256 AM EST Tuesday...Looking for an additional dusting to
1" of snow (15:1 snow-to-liquid ratios) during Wednesday night,
from a combination of continued saturation in deep dendrite
growth zone and a modest 700-500mb shortwave trough moving
slowly ewd across the North Country in field low-mid level flow.
Forcing is quite modest, but favorable microphysical regime
should allow for minor/light snow accumulation in most areas.
Cloud cover will keep temperatures from falling significantly
with lows mainly in the teens. Some breaks in the OVC
potentially develop toward daybreak across northern NY, in which
case, lows in the upper single digits will be possible.
Weak flow regime Wednesday night becomes more uniformly
northwesterly during the day Thursday with an approaching arctic
front from the Ottawa Valley. Should see some additional snow
showers, especially across the Northern Adirondacks and
central/nrn Green Mtns with increasingly favorable orographic
lift. That said, PW values are only expected 0.1-0.2", and
limited moisture content will limit any additional snow
accumulation to an inch or less, and not expecting much travel
impact with temperatures well below freezing. Low-level CAA is
quite strong during the daylight hours Thursday following
frontal passage. Should see early highs in the lower 20s, before
falling thru the teens and possibly single digits across the
Adirondacks/St. Lawrence Valley by mid-late afternoon. Likewise,
wind chills values will fall to zero to 10 below across nrn NY
and into the single digits across VT for Thursday afternoon with
NW winds 10-15 mph and gusts 20-25 mph during the late
afternoon hours.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 256 AM EST Tuesday...Polar vortex tracks rapidly sewd
from sern Ontario and swrn Quebec and translates across the
North Country Thursday night with impressively low 1000-500mb
thickness values (495dm) and 850mb temperatures (-23C to -24C).
Moisture will be decreasing, so not expecting anything more than
a few lingering mountain snow flurries Thursday night into
Friday. Main story will be the arctic air, with lows +5F to -10F
for Thursday night, and highs only climbing into the single
digits and low teens for both Friday and Saturday. Will need
for monitor for possible wind chill advisories late Thursday
night into Friday with core of arctic air and NW winds 10-15 mph
resulting in potential 20 to 25 below wind chill readings
across nrn NY and portions of central/nern VT. High pressure
starts to build in from the west on Saturday morning, and with
potential clearing skies, Saturday morning looks to be our best
radiational cooling night. We are yet to observe a low
temperature of zero or less at BTV this winter, but appears
we'll have a 50/50 chance on Saturday morning provided skies
clear out sufficiently.
Watching next potential low pressure system tracking ewd from
the Ohio Valley Sunday night into Monday. Latest indications
from 00Z NWP guidance suite is that this system may stay to our
south, but did carry 30% PoPs for stratiform snowfall based on
some of the previous 12/18Z deterministic and ensemble guidance
from Monday. Should see high temperatures moderate back into the
upper teens and lower 20s for Sunday, and then mid- upper 20s
for Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 12Z Wednesday...Mix of MVFR/VFR through 14-15Z,
trending mainly VFR for a period of time from 14-22Z, then
IFR/MVFR area wide in light snows into the evening/overnight
hours as low pressure moves into the region. Highest
probabilities of MVFR through 14-15Z to occur at KSLK, KMSS and
KBTV. Winds variable depending on terminal, but generally light
and less than 10 kts through the forecast period.
Outlook...
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Wednesday Night: MVFR. Chance SHSN.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST
Wednesday for VTZ011-012-019.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST
Wednesday for NYZ034.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...Banacos
LONG TERM...Banacos
AVIATION...JMG
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