Expires:200509062215;;772713
FPUS51 KBTV 060730
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
330 AM EDT TUE SEP 6 2005


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>018-062215-
ORLEANS-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-ORANGE-EASTERN FRANKLIN-
EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...ISLAND POND...JOHNSON...STOWE...
ST. JOHNSBURY...MONTPELIER...BRADFORD...RANDOLPH...ENOSBURG FALLS...
RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON
330 AM EDT TUE SEP 6 2005

.TODAY...SUNNY. PATCHY DENSE FOG UNTIL MID MORNING. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 
.TONIGHT...CLEAR. PATCHY DENSE FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY...SUNNY. PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE MORNING. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY. A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 70S. 

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
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FXUS61 KBTV 060748
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
348 AM EDT TUE SEP 6 2005

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY SLIPS OFF TO THE SOUTH ON
WEDNESDAY. SO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND ARE EXPECTED WITH
NIGHTIME VALLEY FOG. CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE LATE WED NIGHT OVER NY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR ISOLD TSRA ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS DIFFER ON AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WITH UP
TO 1500 J/KG SBCAPE ON THE NAM AND ONLY 250 ON THE GFS. BOTH SHOW
SOME QG FORCING AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FOR ASCENT AND UP TO
1.40" OF PRECIPITABLE WATER. ALSO MODELS QPF DOMINATED BY
CONVECTIVE PRECIPIATION. QPF SEEMS A BIT HEAVY ESP ON NAM WITH 1+"
NEAR KMSS AND 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS. IF
CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP, THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.
&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
FRONT MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH THURDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE SFC
AND RIDGE ALOFT DOMINATE THE WEATHER FRI-SUN WITH WEATHER SIMILAR
TO THAT OF THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS WITH
PATCHY FOG. SOME CHANCE OF PRECIP MONDAY AS HIGH MOVES OFF AND
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES.
&&

.AVIATION...
FORECAST PROBLEM IS INITIAL 6 HOURS OF TAF WITH RADIATION FOG
FORMING. KSLK OBS DOWN TO 1/4SM FG AND SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH 12Z.
KMSS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE BETWEEN P6SM AND IFR VIS. AT KBTV...
EXPECT FOG BANK ALONG THE RIVER TO MOVE IN AND OUT OF THE AIRPORT
VCNTY 10-12Z. AFT 12Z...LOW HUMIDITY...AND SUBSIDENCE FROM HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PRODUCE VFR CLR CONDITIONS TODAY. WITH
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTING TO THE EAST...LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

KMPV EQUIPMENT OUTAGE CONTINUES WITH ASOS REPORTING ONLY ALTIMETER.
ISSUED KMPV TAF BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURROUNDING OBS. NO
AMENDMENTS DUE TO LACK OF CIG/VIS/WX/TEMP DATA.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...HANSON








FXUS61 KBTV 060135
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
934 PM EDT MON SEP 5 2005

.SHORT TERM (OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE REGION AT THIS TIME. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING JUST A SMALL
SPREAD BETWEEN THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT AT THIS TIME...SO
EXPECTING FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY IN
THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. WILL ADD A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG TO THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ZONES OVERNIGHT. HAVE ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF
PATCHY DENSE FOG EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN VERMONT ZONES...AS WELL AS THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY. EXPECT FOG TO BURN OFF BY MID MORNING ON TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 318 PM EDT MON SEP 5 2005)

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...PATCHY DENSE FOG
WILL FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT IN FAVORED AREAS IN THE MOUNTAINS
AS WELL AS IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.

GUIDANCE HAS A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LOWERED MAV MOS HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN VERMONT BASED ON 850 TEMPS. WINDS WILL
PICK UP A TAD OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
HI PRESS TO REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WX FROM TUE NITE THRU WED NITE.
CF TO MOVE ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION AND SRN CANADA ON WED/WED NITE.
LATEST NAM LOOKS TOO QUICK WITH THE TIMING OF THIS NEXT CF...SO HAVE
LEANED MORE ON THE LATEST GFS.

WK H85 CAA TO TAKE PLACE FROM TUE NITE THRU WED NITE ACRS THE FA.
SOME LOW-LVL MSTR TO START TO AFFECT THE MUCH OF THE NRN TIER ZONES
BY LATER ON WED NITE. SOME MID-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT THE FA LATER ON
WED AND INTO WED NITE. PW VALUES ACRS THE FA LOOK TO INCREASE TO
AROUND AN INCH ON WED NITE.

WILL CONT WITH A DRY FCST ACRS THE FA ON TUE NITE THRU WED NITE AND
HOLD ANY PCPN UP TO THE W-NW OF THE FA. CLDS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE ACRS THIS TIME-FRAME WITH SFC WINDS OUT OF THE S-SW. T1MIN
TEMPS ARE IN THE 50S ON TUE NITE. A BLEND OF THE LATEST MAV/FWC DATA
LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR TUE NITE THRU WED NITE.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS PRETTY MUCH THE SAME AS IT DID
YESTERDAY. ONE CF TO AFFECT THE FA ON THU/THU NITE...THEN ANOTHER
ONE SCHEDULED FOR AROUND-ABOUT NEXT MON. IN BETWEEN...PLENTY OF DRY
WX EXPECTED ACRS THE FA WITH HI PRESS IN CONTROL. MAYBE A FEW EXTRA
CLDS ACRS THE FA ON FRI.

WILL CONT TO GO WITH SCHC POPS ON THU/THU NITE AND CHC POPS FOR NEXT
MON. NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE BETWEEN CURRENT MEX DATA AND OUR GOING TEMP
GRIDS...SO NOT MUCH CHANGE NEEDED THERE FOR NOW. LOADED IN THE
LATEST HPC DEWPT/WIND DATA OTRW.

AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WILL SEE VLIFR CONDITIONS 06-14Z AT SLK AND
MPV...WITH LIFR AT MSS AT TIMES 08-12Z. NO OBSTRUCTIONS TO
VISIBILITY OR LOW CEILINGS EXPECTED AT BTV.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WGH









FXUS61 KBTV 051925
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
318 PM EDT MON SEP 5 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...PATCHY DENSE FOG
WILL FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT IN FAVORED AREAS IN THE MOUNTAINS
AS WELL AS IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.

GUIDANCE HAS A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LOWERED MAV MOS HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN VERMONT BASED ON 850 TEMPS. WINDS WILL
PICK UP A TAD OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
HI PRESS TO REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WX FROM TUE NITE THRU WED NITE.
CF TO MOVE ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION AND SRN CANADA ON WED/WED NITE.
LATEST NAM LOOKS TOO QUICK WITH THE TIMING OF THIS NEXT CF...SO HAVE
LEANED MORE ON THE LATEST GFS.

WK H85 CAA TO TAKE PLACE FROM TUE NITE THRU WED NITE ACRS THE FA.
SOME LOW-LVL MSTR TO START TO AFFECT THE MUCH OF THE NRN TIER ZONES
BY LATER ON WED NITE. SOME MID-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT THE FA LATER ON
WED AND INTO WED NITE. PW VALUES ACRS THE FA LOOK TO INCREASE TO
AROUND AN INCH ON WED NITE.

WILL CONT WITH A DRY FCST ACRS THE FA ON TUE NITE THRU WED NITE AND
HOLD ANY PCPN UP TO THE W-NW OF THE FA. CLDS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE ACRS THIS TIME-FRAME WITH SFC WINDS OUT OF THE S-SW. T1MIN
TEMPS ARE IN THE 50S ON TUE NITE. A BLEND OF THE LATEST MAV/FWC DATA
LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR TUE NITE THRU WED NITE.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS PRETTY MUCH THE SAME AS IT DID
YESTERDAY. ONE CF TO AFFECT THE FA ON THU/THU NITE...THEN ANOTHER
ONE SCHEDULED FOR AROUND-ABOUT NEXT MON. IN BETWEEN...PLENTY OF DRY
WX EXPECTED ACRS THE FA WITH HI PRESS IN CONTROL. MAYBE A FEW EXTRA
CLDS ACRS THE FA ON FRI.

WILL CONT TO GO WITH SCHC POPS ON THU/THU NITE AND CHC POPS FOR NEXT
MON. NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE BETWEEN CURRENT MEX DATA AND OUR GOING TEMP
GRIDS...SO NOT MUCH CHANGE NEEDED THERE FOR NOW. LOADED IN THE
LATEST HPC DEWPT/WIND DATA OTRW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WILL SEE VLIFR CONDITIONS 06-14Z AT SLK AND
MPV...WITH LIFR AT MSS AT TIMES 08-12Z. NO OBSTRUCTIONS TO
VISIBILITY OR LOW CEILINGS EXPECTED AT BTV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MB
LONG TERM...MURRAY
AVIATION...MB








   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

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