Expires:202207202000;;567507
FPUS51 KBTV 200905
ZFPBTV
Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
502 AM EDT Wed Jul 20 2022
VTZ018-202000-
Eastern Addison-
Including the cities of Bristol and Ripton
502 AM EDT Wed Jul 20 2022
.TODAY...Partly sunny. A slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon. Highs in the mid 80s. Light and
variable winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
.TONIGHT...Mostly clear until midnight, then becoming partly
cloudy. Humid with lows around 70. South winds around 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny in the morning, then becoming mostly
cloudy. A chance of thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the
morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Some thunderstorms
may produce gusty winds and small hail. Humid with highs in the
mid 80s. South winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance
of rain 70 percent.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms.
Some thunderstorms may produce gusty winds and small hail. Humid
with lows in the lower 60s. Southwest winds around 10 mph. Chance
of rain 60 percent.
.FRIDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. Southwest winds
around 10 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the lower 60s.
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 80s.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the upper 60s.
.SUNDAY...Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms. Highs in
the lower 80s. Chance of rain 60 percent.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Lows in
the lower 60s. Chance of rain 50 percent.
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the mid 70s.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s.
.TUESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s.
$$
Expires:202207201100;;570748
ASUS41 KBTV 201030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2022
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.
VTZ001>019-201100-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON PTCLDY 69 66 90 CALM 29.72R
MONTPELIER CLEAR 65 61 87 CALM 29.78S
MORRISVILLE PTCLDY 63 61 93 CALM 29.74R FOG
LYNDONVILLE* FAIR 62 62 97 CALM 29.76F FOG
MIDDLEBURY* FAIR 68 68 99 CALM 29.74R
RUTLAND* CLEAR 69 68 96 SE5 29.75S
SPRINGFIELD PTCLDY 67 64 90 CALM 29.75R
HIGHGATE* FAIR 67 66 96 CALM 29.71S FOG
NEWPORT* FAIR 63 61 91 CALM 29.74F
BENNINGTON MOCLDY 68 68 100 CALM 29.79R FOG
ISLAND POND* N/A 55 N/A N/A CALM N/A
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 57 N/A N/A MISG N/A
LAKE EDEN* N/A 63 N/A N/A CALM N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 66 N/A N/A CALM N/A
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 73 68 83 MISG N/A
$$
Expires:No;;565264
FXUS61 KBTV 200811
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
411 AM EDT Wed Jul 20 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A Heat Advisory is in effect for the Champlain and Saint Lawrence
valleys from noon to 8 pm today with heat index values in the low to
mid 90s this afternoon. As heat builds late in the afternoon, some
isolated thunderstorms may form over the Adirondacks and track
eastward. Widespread showers and potentially severe thunderstorms
will be possible Thursday as a strong frontal system pushes through
the region. More chances of showers and thunderstorms are expected
over the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 410 AM EDT Wednesday...* Heat Advisory in effect today for the
Champlain and Saint Lawrence valleys.
* Potential for severe thunderstorms on Thursday, especially for
Vermont.
Heat: Weak ridging crests today as the day starts with warm low
temperatures and elevated dew points. Temperatures will quickly rise
today after sunrise with model guidance favoring afternoon highs in
the upper 80s to low 90s. Given dew points in the upper 60s and low
70s, heat indices will generally be in the low to upper 90s across
the North Country. Additionally, lighter surface winds will allow
for WBGTs to climb well into uncomfortable ranges of the upper 80s
to almost 90. This means biophysical cooling mechanisms will be less
effective increasing risk for heat illness especially in the
Champlain and Saint Lawrence valleys. The lower Connecticut River
Valley will approach thresholds, but will be more conditional on
cloud cover. Speaking of clouds, the shallow amplitude ridge is
allowing more mid/high clouds to spill across this morning. This
could be a bit of a foil for maximum temperatures. However, any
breaks in clouds will promote rapid warming and aforementioned
uncomfortable conditions. Cloud cover and rain will provide some
relief for Thursday, but not before apparent temperatures climb back
into the low/briefly mid 90s for main valleys. Those outdoors should
exercise caution today and tomorrow given the expected temperature
conditions; this heat is potentially dangerous.
Thunderstorms: Areal coverage of slight chances for thunderstorms
was increased this afternoon with terrain acting as elevated heat
sources as the heat dome builds CAPE 500-2000J/kg. Some isolated
cells may form along higher terrain of the Adirondacks and/or lake
breeze. Shear is more limited today, so stronger cells aren't
necessarily expected, but a rare one could occur if boundary
interactions occur.
Higher concerns for more widespread and stronger thunderstorm
activity continues to be the focus for Thursday. A potent low
pressure will push a frontal boundary through the region with
stronger than usual supporting dynamics for this time of year. 30-
50kt mid level flow will increase bulk shear values into the 30-40kt
range allowing for tilted and sustained updrafts. Cells will likely
initiate late Thursday morning across northern New York before
moving into Vermont during peak heating hours. As cells move into
1000-2500J/kg CAPE environment, rapid growth and
multicellular/supercell structures will be possible. 0-1km SRH
values of 100-200m2/s2 are supportive of rotating columns with some
potential for tornadoes. Other threats will be gusty winds and some
hail. As storms evolve, it's likely that bows will form with
increasing threat for gusty winds later in the afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 410 AM EDT Wednesday...Thunderstorm activity will wane from
west to east Thursday night in the wake of the cold front. However,
before coming to an end, lingering potential for rain and
thunderstorms will exist Thursday night east of the Green Mountains
in Vermont. Increasing westerly flow aloft will usher in a drier
airmass overnight proving a mostly dry day for Friday. Overnight
lows will be in the 60s with daytime highs on Friday in the 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 410 AM EDT Wednesday...As we head into the weekend,
temperatures will increase aloft as we enter into a regime of
southwest flow and warm air advection. For such reasons, there
exists a slight chance of terrain driven showers and thunderstorms
on Saturday afternoon despite the lack of forcing. Highs are
expected in the 80s to near 90. Temperatures will remain mild
overnight Saturday into Sunday with development of low-level
southwest jet; lows will be in the mid 60s to near 70. A vertically
stacked low pressure system will slowly arrive late Sunday, bringing
increasing chances for heavy rain and thunderstorms from west to
east. This will produce a significant temperature gradient across
the forecast area with highs across northern New York in the upper
70s to low 80s while reaching into the upper 80s to low 90s across
southeastern Vermont. The main frontal boundary associated with this
system looks to arrive Sunday evening; at which time, there exists
the potential for strong thunderstorms as the GFS indicates plenty
of moisture (PWATS up to 2 inches) and instability (CAPE in excess
of 1000 J/kg) paired with the presence of a low-level jet and thus
low-level wind shear. Stay tuned for more information.
As this system departs on Monday, a relatively cooler and drier
pattern will take hold for early/mid week. During this time, upper
level ridging is expected across the Northeast with northwest aloft.
High temperatures Monday through Wednesday will be in the mid 70s to
mid 80s with overnight lows in the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...Some elevated instability remains tonight
with upslope conditions forcing a shower or two across the North
Country. So far, TS has been limit outside of terminal
locations, but a stray cell cannot be completely ruled out
tonight. Overall, the threat of thunderstorms is less than 10%
for any given location, but remains non-zero. Current
conditions are VFR with CIGs generally 100-150 as clouds spill
over the ridge. These clouds may limit fog formation overnight,
but kept mention of fog at MSS/SLK/MPV given the abundant recent
rainfall and saturated soils with dewpoints in the upper 60s/low
70s. RUT may see some intermittent mist/fog as well, but will be
more conditional on cloud cover.
Chances for TS increase again 17-22Z but will likely be more
limited to initiation points mainly along terrain. Terminal
chances will be 10-15% mainly for locations adjacent to the
Adirondacks and the Green Mtns. BTV should remain TS-free, but a
rare cell remains possible.
Outlook...
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Thursday: VFR. Likely SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
VTZ001-002-005-009-011.
NY...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
NYZ026>028-035-087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Boyd
NEAR TERM...Boyd
SHORT TERM...Hammond
LONG TERM...Hammond
AVIATION...Boyd
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