Expires:202306231400;;600305
FPUS51 KBTV 230638
ZFPBTV
Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
235 AM EDT Fri Jun 23 2023
VTZ018-231400-
Eastern Addison-
Including the cities of Bristol and Ripton
235 AM EDT Fri Jun 23 2023
.TODAY...Partly sunny. A slight chance of showers this afternoon.
Highs in the upper 70s. Light and variable winds. Chance of rain
20 percent.
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy until midnight, then becoming mostly
cloudy. A 50 percent chance of showers. Lows in the mid 60s.
South winds around 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Showers likely in the morning, then showers in the
afternoon. Humid with highs in the lower 70s. South winds around
10 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Humid with lows in the lower
60s. South winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
.SUNDAY...Showers with highs in the upper 70s. Light and variable
winds. Chance of rain 80 percent.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the lower 60s. Chance of
rain 70 percent.
.MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...Showers with a chance of
thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 70s. Lows in the lower 60s.
Chance of rain 90 percent.
.TUESDAY...Showers. Highs in the lower 70s. Chance of rain
90 percent.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Showers. Lows in the lower 60s. Chance of rain
90 percent.
.WEDNESDAY...Showers. Highs around 70. Chance of rain 90 percent.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Showers with a chance of thunderstorms. Lows
in the upper 50s. Chance of rain 90 percent.
.THURSDAY...Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms. Highs
in the upper 60s. Chance of rain 70 percent.
$$
Expires:202306231100;;611061
ASUS41 KBTV 231030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT FRI JUN 23 2023
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.
VTZ001>019-231100-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON PTCLDY 59 53 80 E3 30.04F TC 15
MONTPELIER CLEAR 50 48 93 CALM 30.13S TC 10
MORRISVILLE CLEAR 49 46 90 CALM 30.09F TC 9
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 51 48 89 MISG 30.09S TC 11
LYNDONVILLE* FAIR 52 51 95 CALM 30.12S TC 11
MIDDLEBURY* FAIR 57 56 97 CALM 30.05F TC 14
RUTLAND* PTCLDY 55 54 96 SE7 30.08F TC 13
SPRINGFIELD FOG 52 51 97 CALM 30.10F VSB 1/4 TC 11
HIGHGATE* N/A N/A N/A N/A MISG N/A
NEWPORT* FAIR 55 52 91 CALM 30.09S TC 13
BENNINGTON PTCLDY 58 53 84 CALM 30.07S TC 14
LAKE EDEN* N/A 48 N/A N/A CALM N/A TC 9
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 59 N/A N/A CALM N/A TC 15
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND* N/A 64 55 72 SE9 N/A TC 18
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 63 57 82 SE10 N/A TC 17
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 64 59 82 S5 N/A TC 18
$$
Expires:No;;600567
FXUS61 KBTV 230655
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
255 AM EDT Fri Jun 23 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Filtered morning sunshine with an increase in clouds today and a few
showers mainly in northern New York and possibly western Vermont
this evening. This will be followed by an unsettled weather pattern
late Friday evening into early next week with showers and embedded
thunderstorms likely. Some locally heavy rainfall will be possible
in stronger showers and thunderstorms. The airmass will be
increasingly muggy during this stretch.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 253 AM EDT Friday...Departing upper ridge is stubborn, tilting
negatively back toward our forecast area thus the slower increase in
clouds and moisture. Much of the day, especially in northern VT will
see filtered sunshine with increasing and lowering clouds from SW to
NE this afternoon/evening.
Meanwhile, stubborn upper low is a shadow of itself as it continues
to fill across OH Rvr Vly as it slowly lifts northeast into northern
NY/VT Saturday and exits Sunday. Southerly flow around upper low
providing good moisture advection to those on the backside of the
upper ridge (NY) today and VT evening/overnight. Some energy
rotating cyclonicly into NY in conjunction with deeper moisture and
some daytime instability will bring scattered showers into northern
NY by this evening. The loss of daytime heating will dissipate some
of this activity overnight but still some scattered showers sliding
into VT as the upper ridge axis exits allowing all of the
aforementioned to shift east.
On Saturday...filling system with weak boundaries and plenty of
moisture as PWATS 1.5-2 inches and some daytime heating accounting
for surface instability will mean any isolated/sct -shra activity to
become more widespread in the afternoon with some thunderstorms.
This activity should be more focused across VT being on the
favorable side of the rotating upper trof axis. Wind field is light
with rich, moist soundings thus some heavy rainmakers. Attm...not
anticipating any flooding as this is Day 1 and ground levels have
had time to dry since last weekends rainfall.
It will feel like summer during this stretch as dewpoints will climb
into the 60s, possibly approaching 70 degrees.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 253 AM EDT Friday...We will see some lingering showers and
thunderstorms from the convection seen during the day on Saturday
linger into the first part of the overnight hours before rain
chances dwindle significantly during the pre-dawn hours on Sunday.
This lull in precip chances will be short-lived as a filament of
shortwave energy will stall out across the North Country. As
temperatures warm during the late morning/early afternoon hours on
Sunday, a combination of increasingly low level lapse rates and
instability will interact with this shortwave energy to reinvigorate
shower and thunderstorms across the region. Flow aloft will remain
light with PWAT values once again close to 1.75". This will create
some showers and thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rain. We
will need to monitor for training thunderstorms for flood potential
but right now that seems unlikely but will be something we will
monitor throughout the weekend and into next week. Rain chances will
again dwindle Sunday night but decreasing mid-level heights and a
shallow pocket of elevated instability could keep a few showers and
thunderstorms around through the overnight hours heading into
Monday.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 253 AM EDT Friday...A wet week looks on tap across the North
Country with the latest models slowing down a frontal boundary and
thus keeping rain chances likely through at least Thursday and
possibly even Friday. Monday and Tuesday both look like interesting
days for potentially strong to possibly even a stray severe
thunderstorm as a mid-latitude cyclone matures across the Great
Lakes. Decreasing mid-level heights, increasing shear due to the
proximity of the low, upper level diffluence and increasing
instability attributed to moisture advection will set the stage for
widespread showers and thunderstorms. Taking a look at theta-e lapse
rates on an isentropic surface, it appears we will have a favorable
set-up for wet microbursts on each day which could produce some wind
damage. There is still a lot of information that won't become
available for a few days to look at to really dive into the possible
severe potential but it's something worth being aware of. In
addition to the strong synoptic forcing and thermodynamic profiles,
we will continue to see a very moist air mass overhead. Based on the
latest NAEFS anomalies, our PWATS are expected to be 2-3 standard
deviations above normal. With the increasing shear, storms will be
more transient than those seen over the weekend but they will still
be capable of heavy rain. We will need to monitor heavy rain
footprints each day for the potential for very localized flooding
but widespread flooding seems very unlikely at this time.
As mentioned earlier, the period of wet weather looks like it's
going to linger through much of the week. Last night, models showed
a cold front pushing through and scouring out our moisture with high
pressure building into the region. Well, that's not the case
tonight. All deterministic global guidance is in good agreement that
blocking across the North Atlantic will slow the progression of the
front with a stacked low pressure feature entrenched across the
North Country. By now, we should all know what this could mean. More
rain! Rain showers are now expected to be likely on Thursday and
again on Saturday with an uptick in areal coverage during the
afternoon hours as we see instability peak with diurnal heating.
Have your rain jackets and umbrellas at the ready. No single day
will be a washout but it looks like most places will see measurable
rainfall each day starting this Saturday and continue into next
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...VFR conditions are expected for most
locations throughout the period with light SSE winds less than 6
kts during the day and less than 3 knots overnight. Some patchy
fog and low stratus possible at KSLK like yesterday around
08-10z and to lesser extent at KMPV. Lower clouds < 5K slowly
advance from south to north this afternoon with chance of
showers ard/aft 21z in northern NY becoming scattered aft 00z
while only a chance in VT after 00z through the end of the
period.
Outlook...
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Definite SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Definite SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SLW
NEAR TERM...SLW
SHORT TERM...Clay
LONG TERM...Clay
AVIATION...SLW
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