Expires:202210142000;;405233
FPUS51 KBTV 140828
ZFPBTV
Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
424 AM EDT Fri Oct 14 2022
VTZ018-142000-
Eastern Addison-
Including the cities of Bristol and Ripton
424 AM EDT Fri Oct 14 2022
.TODAY...Cloudy with showers this morning, then partly sunny with
a chance of showers this afternoon. Highs in the mid 50s. Light
and variable winds. Chance of rain 90 percent.
.TONIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Light and
variable winds.
.SATURDAY...Sunny. Highs around 60. Light and variable winds,
becoming south around 10 mph in the afternoon.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 40. South winds
around 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 50s. Light and variable
winds.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s.
.MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...Showers. Highs around 50. Lows around
40. Chance of rain 80 percent.
.TUESDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the upper 40s. Chance of rain
70 percent.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of rain showers.
Lows in the lower 30s. Chance of rain 50 percent.
.WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. A chance of rain
showers. Highs in the lower 40s. Lows in the lower 30s. Chance of
rain 40 percent.
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny and breezy. Highs in the lower 40s.
$$
Expires:202210141100;;410390
ASUS41 KBTV 141030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT FRI OCT 14 2022
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.
VTZ001>019-141100-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON RAIN 51 49 92 SE5 29.90S
MONTPELIER LGT RAIN 50 46 86 NW7 29.92R FOG
MORRISVILLE LGT RAIN 50 48 93 CALM 29.91R FOG
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 51 49 92 MISG 29.87R
LYNDONVILLE* RAIN 48 47 93 W8 29.91R
MIDDLEBURY* RAIN 49 49 100 CALM 29.87F
RUTLAND* LGT RAIN 50 50 100 N5 29.90F FOG
SPRINGFIELD LGT RAIN 52 49 89 CALM 29.88R
HIGHGATE* LGT RAIN 51 50 96 SE6 29.89S
NEWPORT* RAIN 49 46 92 CALM 29.91R
BENNINGTON CLOUDY 49 43 80 E3 29.85F
ISLAND POND* N/A 48 N/A N/A W9 N/A
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 48 N/A N/A MISG N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 41 N/A N/A W24 N/A WCI 31
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 52 50 93 E9 N/A
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 52 50 93 E8 N/A
$$
Expires:No;;405201
FXUS61 KBTV 140827
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
427 AM EDT Fri Oct 14 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving cold front will continue to produce localized heavy
rainfall Friday morning across Vermont, with remaining rainfall
amounts ranging from 0.25 to 1.00 inch by the end of the day Friday.
Sharp rises on streams and rivers are expected with some minor
flooding possible. Cooler temperatures are anticipated on Friday
before they return to the 60s on Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 402 AM EDT Friday...Rain continues to fall across the
forecast area this morning as we monitor potential for any
flooding. Portions of central Vermont and the Northeast Kingdom
have received 1.25 to 2.25 inches of rain, and an additional
0.75 to 1.50 inches is expected. Showers on radar are currently
moving from south to north as moisture from the Atlantic streams
into the region ahead of a slowly moving boundary. Water vapor
shows a deep/closed and negatively tilted mid/upper level trough
across the Great Lakes influencing the area. Pwat values around
1.00-1.15 inches and expected to gradually decrease. We are
monitoring the potential for ponding or localized flooding in
urban and poor drainage areas.
As Friday continues, a mid/upper level dry slot at the 700mb level
indicates decreasing chances of precip and even some clearing,
mainly northern New York. PoPs that start in the 80-90% range for
the Northeast Kingdom early Friday become 30-40% by the end of the
day and 0-20% elsewhere across the forecast area. Temperatures will
rise into the upper 50s to lower 60s, just below average for most.
Friday night will likely be even more dry and chilly post-front
with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s with calm winds.
On Saturday, unsettled weather continues in association with the
upper low as another boundary and shortwave move through the
area, mainly northern New York as it clips west and northwest of
Vermont. There will be a return of moisture and fgen forcing
with this boundary, so we have some PoPs 30-40% in southwestern
St. Lawrence County for the afternoon-evening hours on Saturday.
Highs returning to a mild low to mid-60s as southerly and
southwesterly winds return.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 402 AM EDT Friday...Next shortwave rotating around cold, closed
upper low in northern Great Lakes/south-central Canada is still
moving across VT or exiting during this timeframe with a secondary
cold front. There's not much moisture/fanfare with this but a chance
of a few showers Sat evening-early Sat ngt.
Rather quiet on Sunday between departing shortwave and front and the
next digging shortwave with a surface low that will likely impact
the region late Sunday night-Monday.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 402 AM EDT Friday...As mentioned above...closed low deepens and
drops across Great Lakes Monday and spins across Grealt Lakes-NY-
western New England through Wednesday before gradually lifting N-NNW
late Wednesday-Thursday.
The bigger impactful event will be precipitation with the surface
low Sunday night-Monday then typical cold, unstable cyclonic flow
with clouds and chance of showers, especially the mountains through
Wednesday.
Again...Thursday will be less impacted by the closed low and beyond
Thursday we become further removed from the center of the closed low
but still somewhat influenced by continued cyclonic flow.
In summary...cool, cloudy somewhat unstable fallish pattern this
upcoming week. We hope you enjoyed this past week until the rains
Thursday night.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...Rain, some heavy, continues to fall
across the region this morning. Heaviest rain is expected at
Vermont sites, particularly KEFK, KBTV, and KMPV through 12Z
Friday, then lessening gradually through 06Z Saturday as the
rain is expected to shift eastward and out of the area.
Visibilities will likely be reduced in heaviest rain showers,
about 1-3SM.
Ceilings are anticipated to be MVFR for most of the sites this
morning with chances for IFR ceilings at the Vermont sites as
flow shifts northerly, which can cause some lower ceilings from
upslope. Generally, ceilings will lift late morning and become
widespread VFR after 18Z. Winds will remain variable to calm with
perhaps a bit of westerly to northwesterly winds Friday
afternoon. The threat for wind shear has diminished enough that
it is not needed in the TAFs, but some wind shear could linger
close to KEFK this morning, so that's something to keep an eye
on.
Outlook...
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Tuesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
As of 1205 PM EDT Thursday...A flood watch remains in effect for
central Vermont and the Northeast Kingdom through Friday
afternoon. A slowing cold front will continue to bring heavy
rainfall across Vermont this morning. Portions of central
Vermont and the Northeast Kingdom have received 1.25 to 2.25
inches of rain, and totals are forecast to be 1.00 to 2.75
inches for the forecast area. The potential for flash flooding
will likely be localized due to recent dryness, though leaf
fall could clog drainage and lead to ponding over streets. Sharp
rises are expected to rivers and streams across the area,
primarily in central Vermont and the Northeast Kingdom. The
Northeast River Forecast Center has the Ausable River reaching
action stage today. Another river to watch closely includes the
Lamoille River at Jeffersonville, which has experienced a sharp
rise in water level overnight. Overall, rivers in central
Vermont and the Northeast Kingdom are anticipated to have the
sharpest rises today.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The ROC and associated KTYX techs plan to take the radar down
again by 730 AM on Friday for additional maintenance.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Flood Watch through this afternoon for VTZ003-004-006>008-010-
016-017.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Storm
NEAR TERM...Storm
SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...Storm
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV
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