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April 2014, Week 1

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Subject:
From:
"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>
Reply To:
Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>
Date:
Mon, 7 Apr 2014 06:50:02 -0400
Content-Type:
text/plain
Parts/Attachments:
text/plain (242 lines)
Expires:201404072000;;271311
FPUS51 KBTV 070730
ZFPBTV
ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
330 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014

VTZ006-072000-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
330 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014
.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...RAIN. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY...CLOUDY WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE. A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
MORNING...THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND
50. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH...BECOMING
SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS
IN THE LOWER 30S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
50 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. 
.SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
50S. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. 
$$

Expires:201404071100;;278356
ASUS41 KBTV 071030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT MON APR 07 2014
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.

VTZ001>019-071100-
_____VERMONT_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     SUNNY     31  24  75 CALM      30.17F                  
MONTPELIER     SUNNY     25  20  81 CALM      30.20S                  
MORRISVILLE    SUNNY     23  20  88 CALM      30.19S                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     25  22  88 MISG      30.19R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      28  21  76 CALM      30.20R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      31  28  85 CALM      30.15S                  
RUTLAND*       SUNNY     28  23  80 S6        30.18R                  
SPRINGFIELD    SUNNY     25  23  92 CALM      30.21R                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      33  24  69 SE5       30.16S                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      30  20  64 SW7       30.17S                  
BENNINGTON     SUNNY     28  22  78 CALM      30.16R                  
SUTTON*          N/A     28 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     32 N/A N/A SW7         N/A                   
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     34  27  75 S6          N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     32  28  86 S8          N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     32  27  80 SE1         N/A                   
$$

Expires:No;;271605
FXUS61 KBTV 070747
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
347 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL RACE INTO 
THE OHIO VALLEY BY THIS EVENING AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA BY TUESDAY. 
THIS WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS WITH RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVING BY SUNSET 
THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES. 
THE COMBINATION OF WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SNOW MELT...ALONG WITH 
THE EXPECTED RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE MAINLY WITHIN BANK RISES ON LOCAL 
WATERWAYS...WITH SOME MINOR ICE JAM RELATED FLOODING POSSIBLE BY 
TUESDAY. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL TROF
DIGGING ACRS THE MS VALLEY ATTM WITH DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE
ADVECTING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS
ENERGY WL HELP DEVELOP SFC LOW PRES...WHICH WL TRACK INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY TODAY AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA BY TUESDAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW
MID/UPPER LVL RH INCREASING FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR CWA
TODAY...WHICH WL RESULT IN CLOUDS THICKENING AND LWRING THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. BASED ON 1000 TO 500MB RH >80% THINKING RAIN WL ARRIVE
ACRS SOUTHERN VT ZNS AND DACKS BY 00Z TONIGHT AND RAPIDLY SPREAD
NORTHEAST THRU THE REST OF OUR CWA BY 06Z TUESDAY. TEMPS WL BE
TRICKY TODAY WITH LLVL WAA PUSHING 925MB TEMPS BTWN 4 AND 6C...BUT
CLOUDS INCREASING WL LIMIT MIXING POTENTIAL. WARMEST VALUES WL BE
ACRS OUR NORTHERN/CENTRAL CWA...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS OVER
WINDSOR/RUTLAND COUNTIES. WL MENTION HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S MTNS
TO L50S SOUTHERN VT/NEK TO M/U 50S CPV/SLV.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON TRACKING 
SFC LOW PRES TO OUR WEST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND TIMING OF
PRECIP DEVELOPMENT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACRS OUR REGION.
NAM/ECMWF/GFS ALL SHOW 850 TO 500MB RH FIELDS QUICKLY SPREADING  
ACRS OUR CWA BTWN 21Z MONDAY AND 03Z TUESDAY...ASSOCIATED 
WITH INITIAL 5H VORT AND LLVL WAA. IN ADDITION PWS SURGE BTWN 0.60 
AND 0.80 AHEAD OF SFC LOW PRES AND DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL TROF. 
LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE CONTS TO SHOW SE DOWNSLOPING 85H WINDS BTWN 65 
AND 75  KNOTS AROUND 06Z TONIGHT...AND TRRN RELATED FEATURES IN THE 
QPF FIELDS. STRONGEST WINDS ARE CLOSELY TIED WITH 
HEAVIEST PRECIP...WHICH WL LIMIT MIXING BUT STILL COULD SEE GUSTS 
TO 40 MPH OR SO ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES/CPV BTWN 03Z-09Z TONIGHT. 
THIS WL RESULT IN THE TYPICAL TRRN IMPACTED QPF FIELDS WITH
HIGHEST VALUES BTWN 0.50 AND 0.75" ACRS THE SE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREENS AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN DACKS.
ELSEWHERE...QPF ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES/CPV WL BE SIMILAR TO OUR
LAST EVENT...BTWN 0.10 AND 0.30". A FEW LOCATIONS ACRS THE SLV
COULD APPROACH AN INCH...BUT GIVEN QUICK MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM...THIS
SEEMS OVERDONE BY THE MODELS.
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TWO HEAVIEST QPF FIELDS 
SPLITTING OUR CWA...EITHER TO THE WEST CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER LVL 
DYNAMICS AND BETTER 25H JET OR TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...WHERE PWS ARE 
HIGHER AND NOSE OF LLVL JET ENHANCES THE MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE 
ATLANTIC. GIVEN THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO...NOT ANTICIPATING MANY HYDRO 
ISSUES ON TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WE SHOULD SEE SOME MODERATE RISES 
FROM SNOW MELT TODAY AND EXPECTED QPF THRU TUESDAY...AND MAYBE AN 
ISOLATED ICE JAM OR TWO...WHICH COULD CREATE SOME MINOR LOW LYING 
FLOODING. THE DURATION OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE BTWN 3 AND 6 HRS ON 
MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE MID/UPPER LVL DRY SLOT QUICKLY ADVECTS INTO 
THE REGION AND PRECIP BECMS SCATTERED. TEMPS WL HOLD IN THE M/U 30S 
NEK/CENTRAL VT/DACKS TO LOWER 40S CPV/SLV/SOUTHERN VT. 
TEMPS ON TUESDAY SHOULD WARM BACK INTO THE 50S AHEAD OF SFC COLD 
FRNT. EXPECTING ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH 
BOUNDARY BTWN 15Z AND 21Z TUESDAY...BUT OVERALL RIBBON OF MID LVL 
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND BEST DYNAMICS PASS TO OUR NORTH. LIKE THE 
IDEA OF PREVIOUS FCST WITH REGARDS TO MENTIONING 
DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN PLACEMENT OF DRY SLOT. WL TRY TO USE 
CHC/LIKELY SHOWER WORDING WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE IN THE GRIDS. 
ADDITIONAL QPF WL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY UNDER 0.15 ON TUESDAY. 
TEMPS WL CONT TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SNOW MELT...EVEN ACRS THE 
MID/UPPER ELEVATIONS...SO RIVERS WL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. COOLER 
WEATHER ARRIVES ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDS. 
WEDS WL BE MUCH COOLER WITH CYCLONIC NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLW AND LLVL 
CAA CONTINUING. THIS COMBINED WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING LOTS OF 
MOISTURE BTWN SFC AND 800MB WL RESULT IN PLENTY OF STRATO CUMULUS 
CLOUDS ACRS OUR CWA. WL MENTION CLOUDY SKIES WITH SOME FLURRIES/SNOW 
SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE DACKS/NORTHERN 
GREENS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS FALL BTWN -10C AND -12C ON 
WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE U20S TO M30S MTNS AND U30S TO 
L40S VALLEYS. WARMEST TEMPS WL BE AROUND MIDNIGHT ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 343 AM EDT MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS 
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
UPPER TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY EVENING. RIDGE AXIS THEN 
MOVES EAST ACROSS FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL CLEAR
AND THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 20S.
RIDGE SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST THURSDAY WITH BRISK RETURN SOUTH TO 
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. 
TEMPERATURES REBOUND NICELY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 
60...AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND +4C BY DAYS END. THERE WILL BE 
SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT IT WILL REMAIN DRY. 
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS 
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS FORECAST AREA. HAVE GONE 
WITH POPS ANYWHERE FROM 40-60 PERCENT WITH THIS EVENT...WHILE QPF 
WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT...LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH. LOOKING AT MIN 
TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY 
IN THE 50S.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT 
COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN 
LATEST RUNS OF GFS AND ECMWF REGARDING SATURDAY. GFS INDICATING HIGH 
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA WITH SUNSHINE...DRY CONDITIONS AND 
RAPIDLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. LATEST ECMWF HINTS AT MORE CLOUDS 
AND EVEN THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS DUE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. HAVE 
GONE WITH THE DRY GFS SOLUTION...MAINTAINING CONSISTENCY FROM
EARLIER FORECAST.
A MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS SUNDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT
IN BREEZY AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO
REACH +6 TO +10C WHICH SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 60S. CONTINUED WITH
LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS...THOUGH
ANY RAIN WITH NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT
OR MONDAY GIVEN AMPLIFICATION OF RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING CLOUDS DURING MONDAY...WITH A LOWERING TREND TO MID
LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. VFR CIGS CONTINUE TO LOWER
MONDAY EVENING AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. EXPECT
MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE BY 06Z
TUESDAY.
BY LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS AND 
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LLWS WILL BE OTHER AVIATION CONCERNS.
WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
10 TO 15 KTS MONDAY...WITH GUSTS 20-30 KTS POSSIBLE AFTER
20Z...ESPECIALLY RUT/BTV.
OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM OHIO
RIVER VALLEY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. IT WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN INTO TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE REST OF TUESDAY. MAINLY MVFR WITH PERIODS
OF IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.
00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH
SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS AT
MPV/SLK. INTERVALS OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR MPV/SLK.
18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR AS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE 
PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP THURSDAY.
00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS 
AS WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MODERATE IN BANK RIVER RISES WITH ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE 
POSSIBLE...WHICH MAY CREATE LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING TUESDAY INTO 
WEDS. THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES MELTING THE SNOW PACK AND 
EXPECTED QPF BTWN 0.25 AND 0.75 WL CAUSE MODERATE RISES ON LOCAL 
WATERWAYS. HOWEVER WE ARE NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD OR MAJOR FLOODING 
TO OCCUR...BUT SEVERAL ICE JAMS MAY DEVELOP AND CAUSE ISOLATED AND 
MINOR LOW LYING FLOODING ON TUESDAY INTO WEDS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS
HYDROLOGY...TABER

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