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May 2020, Week 4

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Subject:
From:
Wesley Alan Wright <[log in to unmask]>
Reply To:
Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>
Date:
Sat, 23 May 2020 06:50:02 -0400
Content-Type:
text/plain
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Expires:202005232000;;608274
FPUS51 KBTV 230744
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
341 AM EDT Sat May 23 2020


VTZ006-232000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
341 AM EDT Sat May 23 2020

.TODAY...Sunny. Isolated showers this afternoon. Highs in the mid
70s. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Clear. Lows in the lower 40s. South winds around
10 mph. 
.SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. South winds around
10 mph. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. South winds
around 10 mph. 
.MEMORIAL DAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the lower 70s. South winds around 10 mph. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the mid 50s. 
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny. Warmer with highs in the lower 80s. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 60s. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the
mid 80s. Chance of rain 40 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the mid 60s. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the
lower 80s. Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the lower 60s. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs
around 80. 

$$


Expires:202005231100;;615552
ASUS41 KBTV 231030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2020

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-231100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     FAIR      54  48  80 CALM      30.03R                  
MONTPELIER     FAIR      48  45  89 CALM      30.07S                  
MORRISVILLE    FAIR      46  43  89 SW3       30.05R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     48  45  89 MISG      30.03R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      55  43  64 CALM      30.07R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      56  55  96 N3        30.02S                  
RUTLAND*       FAIR      56  54  93 SE6       30.03R                  
SPRINGFIELD    FAIR      53  51  93 CALM      30.02R                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      60  38  44 N6        30.05R                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      55  41  59 N8        30.09R                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    60  58  92 CALM      30.00S FOG              
ISLAND POND*     N/A     43 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     45 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     59 N/A N/A E5          N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     61 N/A N/A N9          N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     57  48  72 NW1         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     57  43  58 NW12        N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     57  54  88 N7          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;612591
FXUS61 KBTV 230905
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
505 AM EDT Sat May 23 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal boundary will drift across our area today. Will 
see an increase in cloud cover and perhaps an isolated shower in
central Vermont today. The warm weather pattern will continue 
into much of next week as high pressure builds back atop the 
region along with warm to locally hot weather. Scattered 
rainfall chances increase toward the end of next week as a more 
significant cold front approaches the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 459 AM EDT Saturday...A weak surface boundary will move
across our area today, will notice increase in cloud cover and
dewpoints to an extent. An isolated rain shower is possible this
afternoon in central Vermont, though airmass currently in place
is quite dry. Temperatures today will be a bit cooler than
yesterday due to the front and clouds, though still quite warm
for late May. Otherwise quiet weather continues headed into
tonight and Sunday as well with an upper level ridging briefly 
building over our area. A surface warm front will approach from 
our west late in the day Sunday, will see increase in clouds 
Sunday afternoon across Northern New York. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 445 AM EDT Saturday...A weak warm front feature along
with an embedded 5h vort in the westerly flow aloft will lift
acrs our cwa. This combined with a narrow axis of enhanced mid
lvl moisture will increase the threat for isolated to scattered
showers acrs northern NY into VT. Overall, instability is
minimal during this time frame and associated 30 to 40 knots
southwesterly flow at 850mb, may limit chances of measurable
precip acrs the cpv. Temps are comfortably cool on Sunday night
in the lower 40s eastern VT to l/m 50s CPV/SLV, where southerly
winds develop aft midnight. Temps warm into the 70s on breezy
south/southwest winds on Monday, before cooling back into the
lower 50s to near 60 for Monday Night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 445 AM EDT Saturday...Overall the pattern will become
increasingly more active for midweek, as a building mid/upper
lvl ridge acrs the se conus places our cwa in the fast westerly
flow aloft. Timing of individual s/w energy and associated
boundary becomes increasingly more difficult by midweek, but the
general idea of building heat/humidity will produce conditions
favorable for aftn/evening showers/storms. Still some
uncertainty on the degree of instability, along with timing of
s/w energy and associated height falls and if ingredients all
come together to produce a threat for strong/severe storms.
Currently guidance shows best potential for showers/storms on 
Weds aftn into Thurs associated with a cold front and sfc based 
cape values increasing to 1000 to 1500 j/kg, while favorable 
deep layer shear is available, associated with 700mb flow of 40 
to 50 knots from the west. The other story will be warming 
temps, especially Tues/Weds, as progged 850mb temps jump btwn 
14-16c, supporting highs well into the 80s with maybe a few 
spots approaching 90 in the central CPV. Cooler and drier 
weather arrives toward the end of the week, with highs back into
the 70s and lows generally in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...VFR conditions continue with winds mainly 
5 knots or less through the overnight. Winds remain under 10 
knots during the daytime, except at MSS where 10 to 12 knot 
northeasterly winds are expected after 12Z due to channeling 
effects, and at PBG where a lake breeze developing by 19Z will 
produce northeast wind gusts in the 15 to 20 knot range.

Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Memorial Day: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Neiles

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