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May 2021, Week 2

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Thu, 13 May 2021 06:50:03 -0400
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Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>
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Expires:202105132000;;036852
FPUS51 KBTV 130721
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
317 AM EDT Thu May 13 2021


VTZ018-132000-
Eastern Addison-
Including the cities of Bristol and Ripton
317 AM EDT Thu May 13 2021

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 60s. Northwest winds
10 to 15 mph. 
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy. A chance of showers, mainly until
midnight. Lows in the lower 40s. West winds around 10 mph. Chance
of rain 40 percent. 
.FRIDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 60s. West winds around
10 mph, becoming northwest in the afternoon. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Southwest
winds around 10 mph. 
.SATURDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s. Southwest winds
around 10 mph. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the mid
60s. Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s. 
.MONDAY...Mostly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the upper 60s. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the upper 40s. 
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the lower 60s. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the mid 40s. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 60s. 

$$


Expires:202105131100;;044521
ASUS41 KBTV 131031
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT THU MAY 13 2021

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-131100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLEAR     42  38  85 CALM      30.18R                  
MONTPELIER     CLEAR     35  30  82 CALM      30.20R                  
MORRISVILLE    CLEAR     33  32  96 CALM      30.19R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     34  32  92 MISG      30.16R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      35  32  89 CALM      30.18R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      37  34  89 CALM      30.19R                  
RUTLAND*       CLEAR     38  36  92 SE6       30.20R                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLEAR     37  34  89 CALM      30.18S                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      38  35  90 CALM      30.19R                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      35  33  92 SW5       30.18R WCI  31          
BENNINGTON     CLEAR     33  32  96 CALM      30.20R                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     28 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     28 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     32 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     39 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     48  41  76 NE2         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     48  41  76 S5          N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     48  43  81 SE3         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;037947
FXUS61 KBTV 130758
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
358 AM EDT Thu May 13 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A stretch of seasonably warm days with scattered afternoon 
showers and an isolated rumble of thunder are expected for the 
North Country. A frontal boundary is expected to approach 
towards the middle of the next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 347 AM EDT Thursday...Weather conditions are currently 
quiet, with a weakening upper level trough producing scattered 
mid-level clouds over our forecast area. These clouds have been 
slowly thinning overnight. Based on cloud cover, raised low 
temperatures over much of Vermont, which shifted several areas 
above 36 F. However, just in case we see clouds completely 
scatter out and radiational cooling allow temperatures to 
quickly sink, the frost advisory remains untouched at this hour.

During the day, we should have mostly sunny skies. Temperatures
will quickly climb into the mid to upper 60s. Forecast 
soundings indicate a deeply mixed environment, yet with high 
pressure nosing in, the overall flow is weak. Thus, it could be 
breezy this afternoon, but nothing much stronger than 15 to 20 
mph. Relative humidities will fall below 30 percent, but with 
green-up well underway and recent rainfall, this should not pose
too much of an issue. Late in the day, a pocket of very dry air
will shift southwards creating a density boundary in Quebec 
Province. A few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two will 
develop along this feature and then push southwards into the 
North Country late this afternoon. These could produce brief, 
gusty winds owing the dry PBL conditions in place. Axis of 
deformation and even some FGEN pivots into Vermont, which may 
allow activity to continue for some time after sunset. After 
midnight, this small region of better dynamics shifts south and 
east, and activity should quickly wane. Overnight lows will be a
few degrees warmer, with upper 30s in the Dacks and Northeast 
Kingdom, and 40s for the rest of the region.

On Friday, despite the incoming ridge and relatively dry 
surface conditions, enough instability is in place to produce 
scattered showers during the afternoon. Initiation should begin 
across the high terrain of the Adirondacks and Greens, and then 
showers will shift southeastwards as they develop. Temperatures 
will warm in the mid 60s to lower 70s in the afternoon with 
light, but steady west to northwest winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 357 AM EDT Thursday...Friday night and Saturday will 
feature pretty quiet weather, and temperatures beginning to rise
above seasonal normals. Afternoon showers on Friday will 
dissipate and the overnight will be mainly dry with ridge of 
surface high pressure still over the region. Saturday will also 
start out dry and quiet, but temperatures will warm into the 
upper 60s to lower 70s Saturday afternoon, and some weak 
shortwave energy will pass through upper level flow. Therefore 
have mentioned just a chance for some afternoon showers, 
especially in the Northeast Kingdom of Vermont.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 357 AM EDT Thursday...Any showers will die down Saturday 
night with loss of daytime heating and little bit of surface 
instability that was available. Ridge of surface high pressure 
will finally slide eastward early next week. Models still not in
very good agreement with how things will play out next week, 
but it still appears that a surface cold front will cross the 
area on Tuesday. GFS wants to bring this feature through 
relatively dry, while the ECMWF wants to spit out some showers 
for us. Beyond Tue there's really not much agreement between the
models at all. Does look like temperatures will remain slightly
warmer than seasonal normals though with highs in the upper 60s
to lower 70s each day, and lows in the 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06Z Friday...Pockets of clouds around 10000ft agl and 
clearer skies towards KMSS at present. VFR conditions are 
expected the next 24 hours. Light, terrain driven winds will 
give way to northwesterly winds after 14Z around 6 to 10 knots. 
Scattered showers will develop over Quebec Province and 
propagate south across Vermont beyond 21Z. Have mentioned VCSH 
at KPBG, KBTV, and KMPV. A few rumbles of thunder and gusty 
winds will be possible in stronger showers, though this is not 
yet explicitly shown in the TAFs. Showers wane after 05Z Friday.

Outlook...

Friday: VFR. Isolated SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for VTZ006-008>012-
     016>019.
NY...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ026-027-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Haynes

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