Expires:200509012115;;664269
FPUS51 KBTV 010719
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
319 AM EDT THU SEP 1 2005


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>018-012115-
ORLEANS-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-ORANGE-EASTERN FRANKLIN-
EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...ISLAND POND...JOHNSON...STOWE...
ST. JOHNSBURY...MONTPELIER...BRADFORD...RANDOLPH...ENOSBURG FALLS...
RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON
319 AM EDT THU SEP 1 2005

.TODAY...BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY. AREAS OF FOG UNTIL MID MORNING. 
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND
5 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 15 MPH. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS 5 TO
10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN PARTLY SUNNY WITH A
30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 
70S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS 
UNTIL MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. 
.LABOR DAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. 
.WEDNESDAY...BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. 

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
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FXUS61 KBTV 010716
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
315 AM EDT THU SEP 1 2005

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
SYSTEM THAT IS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE KATRINA HAS LIFTED
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND PRECIPITATION HAS
COME TO AN END.  STILL SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AROUND AND WITH ALL THE
PRECIPITATION THAT FELL YESTERDAY...SHOULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPING
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL IN
PLACE...ONCE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE STRATOCUMULUS FORMING AND THUS GOING FORECAST
OF PARTLY SUNNY LOOKS GOOD.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AS LITTLE CHANGE HAS OCCURRED IN THE 805 MB
TEMPERATURE FIELD.  DRYING OF THE LOW LEVELS TAKES PLACE TONIGHT AND
SO ONCE THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ON FRIDAY...ONLY SHALLOW
CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AND THUS WILL MENTION MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS.  WARMING AT 850 MB...UP TO +14C AIR...SUGGESTS
FRIDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.  SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC PROVINCE ON FRIDAY...BUT DYNAMIC
SUPPORT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE BORDER.  AS A
RESULT...FEEL POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION IS LOW AND WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY.  IT LOOKS TO BE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON SATURDAY THAT
WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR A
BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME SHOWERS.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS DUE TO COLDER 850
MB TEMPERATURES...AROUND +10C...AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.
&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
UPPER TROUGH TO BECOME ESTABLISHED IN THE GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.  THIS WILL KEEP FORECAST IN NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
ALLOW FOR COLD AIR ADVECTION TO BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.  GOING FORECAST HAS THIS
COVERED WELL.  EVENTUALLY RIDGING ALOFT RETURNS TO THE AREA AND THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS.  ONCE
AGAIN...GOING FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL AND NO CHANGES NEEDED
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR TO IFR COND ACROSS THE AREA THRU 12Z. KMSS COULD SEE 5SM IN FG
AS SKIES CLR. KSLK WILL HAVE LOW CLDS AT OR BLW OVC010. KMPV WILL
HAVE MVFR IN POTENTIAL FG AND -RW/--RW. KBTV WILL REMAIN VFR. SW/W
WINDS WILL INCR AFT 12Z-13Z TO 10-15KTS W/ DIR REMAINING SAME. CLD
COVER SCATT...W/ POSSIBLE BKN LAYER DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS. WINDS
DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 10KTS AFT 00Z...WITH SCAT LOW CLDS FOR VFR
COND. TEMP MVFR COND KMSS/KSLK/KMPV IN FG/BR. SOME TRRN MAY BE OBSCD
BY CLD COVER.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...JN






FXUS61 KBTV 010206 AAA
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1006 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...

FLOOD WATCHES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED. THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL ALONG
AND LEFT OF THE TRACK OF KATRINA. UP TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN WAS
REPORTED IN MALONE NY. ONLY ABOUT A HALF AN INCH FELL IN SOUTHERN
VT. REFER TO THE LATEST PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS FOR RAINFALL
INFORMATION.

SHOWERS WILL BE TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT AND CLOUDS CLEARING
OUT TOMORROW AS UPPER LEVEL TROF PASSES THROUGH THE AREA AND OFF
TO THE EAST TOMORROW. SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING
SCT CU BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS HAVE ALL BEEN RISING BUT NONE ARE FORECAST TO FLOOD OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 345 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2005)

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
BASICALLY...REMNANTS OF KATRINA INTERACTED WITH NRN STREAM TO FORM
TYPICAL MID-LAT SYSTEM WITH PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO FEED OFF
ALG WITH COUPLED H3 JET AND STRENGTHENING 50 KT H8 JET ALG PARALLEL
BNDRY.

SFC LOW TRACK BTWN KMSS-KSLK-KPLB THIS AFTN PLACED ST LWRNC VLY/
ADRNDKS IN FVRBL OVERRUNNING WITH 2-4" LCLLY HIGHER...STEADIEST RAIN
LIFTED INTO CANADA BY MID-LATE MRNG BUT NOR BFR NRN VT AND REST OF
NY HAS RCVD 1.5-3" AND SRN VT GENERALLY LESS THAN INCH. AN ADDTNL
5-1" LKLY FOR WATCH AREA. IN SRN VT...LCLZD TSRA CUD PRODUCE VRY
LCLZD HIGHER AMTS.  PLEASE SEE PNSBTV FOR RAINFALL AMTS AS OF 2 PM
EDT.

THE ACTUAL S/W AND MOISTURE REMNANTS FM KATRINA ARE STL ACRS SC NY
AND WL TVL ALG/BEHIND THIS FNTL BNDRY AS IT PASSES CHMPL VLY BY 00Z
AND CT RVR VLY BY 06Z. THEREFORE...FFA EXPIRATION TIMES WL REFLECT
A W-E ENDING WITH ST LWRNC VLY AT 9 PM/ADRNDKS-CHMPL VLY AT MIDNGT
AND NC-NE VT AT 5 AM. A CHECK OF FLD GUIDANCE AND MODELING OF
RAINFALL AND CRNT LVLS SHOW THAT THE "DELAYED" RISES IN LARGE STEM
RVRS WL STAY BLO FLD LVLS.

KCXX VWP SHOWED 50 KTS JUST OFF THE DECK BUT CLD CVR HELPED "CAP"
AND PREVENT MUCH MIXING. HWVR...BRF PERIODS OF BINOVC DID ALLOW FOR
SOME GUSTS OVR 30 KTS. HIER ELEVATIONS LKLY RVCD THE HIGHER WINDS
AND NOW THAT THE S GRADIENT IS SLIPPING E WL CXL WND ADVISORY FOR FA.

THEREAFTER...SOME BRF RIDGING BTWN KATRINA AND QUEBEC UPR LOW FOR
THU-ERLY FRI BFR ANTHR UPR LOW DIVES SE INTO ONTARIO WITH A CD FNT
AND MUCH COOLER AIR FOR THE HOLIDAY WKND.  ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS
SOMEWHAT LIMITED...DECENT DYNAMICS AND COLD AIR ALOFT WL BRG ABT
CHC/SCT INSTABILITY -SHRA LATE FRI-SAT ALG NRN BDR/MTNS.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
NO APPRECIABLE CHGS TO EXTENDED PORTIONS OF FCST AT THIS TIME...AS
LATEST OPERATIONAL/ENSEMBLE SOLNS MAINTAIN BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS REGION BEHIND DEPARTING SFC FRONT/TROUGH SATURDAY. OTHER
THAN DEPARTING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A WDLY SCT LIGHT -SHRA OR TWO
SATURDAY EVENING...MAINLY PC/PS AND DRY CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH
REMAINDER OF LONG TERM PERIODS. TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW EARLY SEPT
NORMS DURING SUN/MON...REBOUNDING TO NORMAL/SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL BY
TUE/WED TIME FRAME.

AVIATION...
WILL ADVERTISE PERIOD OF MODERATE/HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS REGION
DURING 20-02Z TIME FRAME AS SFC FRONT EDGES SLOWLY ACROSS AREA.
PRECIP TO END WEST TO EAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WILL MENTION SCT
SFC WND GUSTS TO 30-35KTS THROUGH 22Z OR SO...THEN SUBSIDE SPEEDS AS
PRECIP SHOULD TEMPER BNDRY LYR MIXING. CIGS TO REMAIN RATHER LOW
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVRNT PERIODS...ESP KMPV/KSLK AS FLOW
TRANSITIONS FROM S/SW TO W/NW BEHIND FROPA. HOWEVER DO NOT BELIEVE
LOW VIS CATEGORIES OFFERED BY CONSENSUS MOS WILL BE REALIZED DUE TO
AMPLE SFC GRAD/MIXING OVERNT. THEN VFR CONDS AREA WIDE AFTER 12Z THU
WITH AT LEAST SOME SUN BY AFTERNOON HOURS...ESP VLY LOCALES.

HYDROLOGY...

URBAN...FIELD AND LCLZD STREET FLOODING ARE PSBL IN WATCH AREA BUT
LARGER STEM FLDG NOT XPCTD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SISSON
HYDROLOGY...SISSON










FXUS61 KBTV 311945
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
BASICALLY...REMNANTS OF KATRINA INTERACTED WITH NRN STREAM TO FORM
TYPICAL MID-LAT SYSTEM WITH PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO FEED OFF
ALG WITH COUPLED H3 JET AND STRENGTHENING 50 KT H8 JET ALG PARALLEL
BNDRY.

SFC LOW TRACK BTWN KMSS-KSLK-KPLB THIS AFTN PLACED ST LWRNC VLY/
ADRNDKS IN FVRBL OVERRUNNING WITH 2-4" LCLLY HIGHER...STEADIEST RAIN
LIFTED INTO CANADA BY MID-LATE MRNG BUT NOR BFR NRN VT AND REST OF
NY HAS RCVD 1.5-3" AND SRN VT GENERALLY LESS THAN INCH. AN ADDTNL
.5-1" LKLY FOR WATCH AREA. IN SRN VT...LCLZD TSRA CUD PRODUCE VRY
LCLZD HIGHER AMTS.  PLEASE SEE PNSBTV FOR RAINFALL AMTS AS OF 2 PM
EDT.

THE ACTUAL S/W AND MOISTURE REMNANTS FM KATRINA ARE STL ACRS SC NY
AND WL TVL ALG/BEHIND THIS FNTL BNDRY AS IT PASSES CHMPL VLY BY 00Z
AND CT RVR VLY BY 06Z. THEREFORE...FFA EXPIRATION TIMES WL REFLECT
A W-E ENDING WITH ST LWRNC VLY AT 9 PM/ADRNDKS-CHMPL VLY AT MIDNGT
AND NC-NE VT AT 5 AM. A CHECK OF FLD GUIDANCE AND MODELING OF
RAINFALL AND CRNT LVLS SHOW THAT THE "DELAYED" RISES IN LARGE STEM
RVRS WL STAY BLO FLD LVLS.

KCXX VWP SHOWED 50 KTS JUST OFF THE DECK BUT CLD CVR HELPED "CAP"
AND PREVENT MUCH MIXING. HWVR...BRF PERIODS OF BINOVC DID ALLOW FOR
SOME GUSTS OVR 30 KTS. HIER ELEVATIONS LKLY RVCD THE HIGHER WINDS
AND NOW THAT THE S GRADIENT IS SLIPPING E WL CXL WND ADVISORY FOR FA.

THEREAFTER...SOME BRF RIDGING BTWN KATRINA AND QUEBEC UPR LOW FOR
THU-ERLY FRI BFR ANTHR UPR LOW DIVES SE INTO ONTARIO WITH A CD FNT
AND MUCH COOLER AIR FOR THE HOLIDAY WKND.  ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS
SOMEWHAT LIMITED...DECENT DYNAMICS AND COLD AIR ALOFT WL BRG ABT
CHC/SCT INSTABILITY -SHRA LATE FRI-SAT ALG NRN BDR/MTNS.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
NO APPRECIABLE CHGS TO EXTENDED PORTIONS OF FCST AT THIS TIME...AS
LATEST OPERATIONAL/ENSEMBLE SOLNS MAINTAIN BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS REGION BEHIND DEPARTING SFC FRONT/TROUGH SATURDAY. OTHER
THAN DEPARTING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A WDLY SCT LIGHT -SHRA OR TWO
SATURDAY EVENING...MAINLY PC/PS AND DRY CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH
REMAINDER OF LONG TERM PERIODS. TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW EARLY SEPT
NORMS DURING SUN/MON...REBOUNDING TO NORMAL/SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL BY
TUE/WED TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...
WILL ADVERTISE PERIOD OF MODERATE/HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS REGION
DURING 20-02Z TIME FRAME AS SFC FRONT EDGES SLOWLY ACROSS AREA.
PRECIP TO END WEST TO EAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WILL MENTION SCT
SFC WND GUSTS TO 30-35KTS THROUGH 22Z OR SO...THEN SUBSIDE SPEEDS AS
PRECIP SHOULD TEMPER BNDRY LYR MIXING. CIGS TO REMAIN RATHER LOW
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVRNT PERIODS...ESP KMPV/KSLK AS FLOW
TRANSITIONS FROM S/SW TO W/NW BEHIND FROPA. HOWEVER DO NOT BELIEVE
LOW VIS CATEGORIES OFFERED BY CONSENSUS MOS WILL BE REALIZED DUE TO
AMPLE SFC GRAD/MIXING OVERNT. THEN VFR CONDS AREA WIDE AFTER 12Z THU
WITH AT LEAST SOME SUN BY AFTERNOON HOURS...ESP VLY LOCALES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

URBAN...FIELD AND LCLZD STREET FLOODING ARE PSBL IN WATCH AREA BUT
LARGER STEM FLDG NOT XPCTD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH FOR VTZ001-002-005-009-016>018 UNTIL MIDNIGHT
     THURSDAY.
  ...FLOOD WATCH FOR VTZ003-004-006>008 UNTIL 5 AM THURSDAY.
NY...FLOOD WATCH FOR NYZ026-027-087 UNTIL 9 PM WEDNESDAY.
  ...FLOOD WATCH FOR NYZ028>031-034-035 UNTIL MIDNIGHT THURSDAY.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
HYDROLOGY...SLW







   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

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