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November 2022, Week 1

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Subject:
From:
Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>
Reply To:
Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>
Date:
Wed, 2 Nov 2022 06:50:03 -0400
Content-Type:
text/plain
Parts/Attachments:
text/plain (236 lines)
Expires:202211021800;;490024
FPUS51 KBTV 021047
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
644 AM EDT Wed Nov 2 2022


VTZ018-021800-
Eastern Addison-
Including the cities of Bristol and Ripton
644 AM EDT Wed Nov 2 2022

.TODAY...Patchy dense fog this morning. Mostly sunny. Highs in
the mid 50s. North winds around 10 mph. 
.TONIGHT...Clear. Lows in the mid 30s. Light and variable winds. 
.THURSDAY...Sunny. Highs in the upper 50s. South winds around
10 mph. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Southwest
winds 10 to 15 mph. 
.FRIDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 60s. Southwest winds
around 10 mph. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows around 50. Highs
around 70. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy and breezy. Lows in the upper
50s. 
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Breezy with highs in the upper 60s. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows around 50. Highs
in the lower 60s. 
.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s.
Highs in the lower 50s. 

$$


Expires:202211021100;;489203
ASUS41 KBTV 021030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT WED NOV 02 2022

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-021100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     PTCLDY    44  43  96 E3        30.24R FOG              
MONTPELIER     CLEAR     46  41  82 W3        30.25R                  
MORRISVILLE    FOG       38  35  89 CALM      30.25R VSB 1/4          
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     41  39  93 MISG      30.20R                  
LYNDONVILLE*     N/A     43  41  95 CALM      30.23R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      41  41 100 CALM      30.25R FOG              
RUTLAND*       CLEAR     43  43 100 SE5       30.24R                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLEAR     44  42  93 CALM      30.22R                  
HIGHGATE*      FOG       47  46  97 CALM      30.26R VSB 1/2          
NEWPORT*       FAIR      47  45  91 NW3       30.24R                  
BENNINGTON     CLEAR     45  38  76 S5        30.24R                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     43 N/A N/A W6          N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     34 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     43 N/A N/A N1          N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     43 N/A N/A N23         N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     50  50 100 CALM        N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     50  48  93 E2          N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     48  48 100 SE1         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;486267
FXUS61 KBTV 020908
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
508 AM EDT Wed Nov 2 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the region from the northwest 
tonight with skies gradually clearing. Very warm and dry 
conditions are then expected for the remainder of the week with 
temperatures in the upper 50s to mid 60s through mid week, 
before warming into the mid to upper 60s and possibly lower 70s 
next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 427 AM EDT Wednesday...High pressure will be over our 
region for at least the first 36 hours of the forecast. Continue
to have some fog over the region overnight that should persist 
into the daylight hours at some locations. Most areas will see 
fog lift a little after sunrise this morning, but likely to 
redevelop overnight with ideal radiational cooling conditions 
again across the region. By this afternoon, sunny skies are 
expected areawide. Mild temps are expected through the period, 
with lows in the 30s tonight, and highs today in the mid 50s to
low 60s, then a few degrees warmer on Thursday. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 427 AM EDT Wednesday...Another extended round of very 
warm days and nights begins during this period as high pressure 
sets up over the western Atlantic, promoting southerly flow as 
ridging aloft remains in place over our region. Thursday night 
should have variable temperatures with dry air and mainly clear 
skies setting up good radiational cooling aside from flow 
picking up around the aforementioned high pressure area. 
Therefore, have used biased corrected guidance for low 
temperatures to better capture the colder hollows where 
temperatures should fall into the mid and upper 30s; winds 
elsewhere should keep temperatures more substantially milder 
than the prior night with mid 40s common.

During the day, very warm air for early November will be in 
place with mid and low level temperatures above the 90th 
climatological percentile. High temperatures, however, are a 
little tricky. Expect models will continue to show a cool bias 
with too shallow of boundary layer. With bare, relatively dry 
soil/ground to help maximize heating towards our high 
temperature, we have been overachieving recently with sunshine 
on the tune of 5 or more degrees. On the other hand, in 
comparison to the record temperatures achieved last week, flow 
aloft tends to become westerly rather than southerly, which 
leads to less efficient mixing. Altogether, it still looks warm 
areawide and have indicated low 70s in our warmest spots. Dry 
conditions through this period with a trend towards increasing 
high clouds mainly in northern New York. Enough of a westerly 
component to the wind will limit moist advection and help keep 
dew points relatively low in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 427 AM EDT Wednesday...Record temperatures likely during 
the first part of the long term as anomalously warm conditions 
build Friday night through Sunday ahead of a cold front. Looking
dry through Saturday night, then scattered showers should 
overspread the region Sunday along a weakening cold front. 
suggesting the front will wash out over the region, keeping 
temperatures above normal for one more day before a return to 
seasonable conditions on Tuesday as low level cold air 
advection/north winds move into the area Monday night.

The only storm during this period will pass across the western 
Great Lakes over the weekend and generate an impressive pressure
gradient with our high pressure system gradually shifting 
eastward over the western Atlantic Ocean. Expect breezy 
conditions Friday night through Sunday, at times rather gusty, 
especially Saturday night/early Sunday. Potential for some 40+ 
MPH gusts exists based on the pattern and available model 
guidance. The main story will be the very warm conditions, 
reinforced by the breezy conditions, such that nighttime 
temperatures will be particularly mild Friday and Saturday 
nights. As with Friday, Saturday will still have some mixing 
concerns, and generally breezier and cloudier conditions suggest
less potential with regards to overachieving on temperature 
based on 850 millibar temperatures. However, the air mass will 
be even warmer aloft than on Friday with percentiles nearing the
maximum in the climatology. Have increased temperatures towards
the NBMBC to match the model correction from recent warm 
spells, suggesting mid to upper 70s are again possible in the 
Champlain and St. Lawrence Valley on Saturday.

Given the storm track being way to our northwest, it will take 
time for a surface cold front with a northerly wind shift to 
make it through our area. Model agreement is above normal 
through this period, so although some details may change, the 
big picture items look secure with regards to the temperature 
trends. Slight chances of showers do continue Sunday night into 
Monday, with questions as to how the initial boundary that 
lingers over our region interacts with any potential upper level
forcing for additional showers ahead of the true cold front 
poised to move through Monday night. As such, sharply cooler 
temperatures, featuring highs in the 50s, is expected for 
Tuesday, ending a ten day string of warm days.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...Challenging aviation forecast continues 
this morning with some sites being impacted by dense fog while 
others remain VFR. Still think that more widespread fog will 
develop towards sunrise. Some models are indicating the fog 
could hang around through most of the day at MSS and SLK, then 
finally lift on Thu. Areas that have fog lift today will likely 
not see that happen until about 14z or 15z. Winds should remain 
variable or calm throughout the 24 hour period, at times 
northerly.

Outlook...

Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...Kutikoff
LONG TERM...Kutikoff
AVIATION...Neiles

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