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May 2005, Week 5

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From:
Wesley's Ski Hut <[log in to unmask]>
Reply To:
Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>
Date:
Tue, 31 May 2005 06:50:02 -0400
Content-Type:
text/plain
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Expires:200505312100;;462078
FPUS51 KBTV 310753
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
353 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2005


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>018-312100-
CALEDONIA-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN FRANKLIN-ESSEX-
LAMOILLE-ORANGE-ORLEANS-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRISTOL...ISLAND POND...MONTPELIER...
NEWPORT...RANDOLPH...RICHFORD...ST. JOHNSBURY...STOWE...UNDERHILL
353 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2005

.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE
60S. LIGHT WINDS.  CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS UNTIL MIDNIGHT. PATCHY
FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. LIGHT WINDS. CHANCE OF
RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 70. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 50. SOUTHWEST WINDS
5 TO 10 MPH UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING LIGHT.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO
15 MPH.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 50.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY.
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOWS IN THE MID 50S. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE
MID 70S. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 310724
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
324 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2005

.SYNOPSIS...
SFC HI PRESS TO AFFECT THE FA TODAY THRU THU. FA TO BE UNDER SOME UPR
TROUGHINESS TODAY. HOPEFULLY WE CAN GET RID OF THIS SHOWERY PATTERN
AFTER TODAY OR TOMORROW.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
00-01Z 13KM "DEVELOPMENT" RUC SHOWS TEMPS TO GET UP INTO THE 60S-M70S
TODAY WITH MOSTLY LT SFC WINDS. T1MAX TEMPS ARE 70-75F TODAY. FEW
TWEAKS TO FIRST PERIOD TEMPS/WINDS BASED ON THIS DATA. NAM/RUC CAPES
ACRS THE FA TODAY LOOK TO BE AOB 500-1000 J/KG. RUC SHOWS PTSUNNY
SKIES ACRS THE FA TODAY WITH SCT CONVECTION INTO EARLY TONITE.

WK H85 WAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA THROUGHOUT THE SHORT-TERM
PERIOD. LOW-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT THE FA TODAY THRU TONITE...WITH SOME
LOW-LVL MSTR LINGERING ACRS THE FA INTO THU. LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES TO
BE HI ACRS THE FA OVER THE NEXT THREE AFTERNOONS. MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
TO BE HI ACRS THE FA ON WED THRU THU. SOME MID-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT THE
FA TODAY. PW VALUES ACRS THE FA LOOK TO BE 0.6-1" ACRS THE FA
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. NAM CAPES ACRS THE FA LOOK TO BE
BLW 300 J/KG TONITE...BLW 1500 J/KG ON WED...AOB 500 J/KG ON
WED NITE...AND BLW 1000 J/KG ON THU.

BUFCAN/88D MOSAIC SHOWS A FEW LT RETURNS ACRS THE FA ATTM.
ENVIRONMENT ACRS THE FA TODAY APPEARS TO BE EVEN MORE WEAKLY SHEARED
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...WITH WET-BULB ZERO HTS OF 7-7.5 KFT. SOME
SMALL HAIL IS AGAIN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACRS THE FA IN ANY MORE
INTENSE CONVECTION. FEEL THAT THE EXPECTED COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTION
ACRS THE FA TODAY PLUS THE UPR TROF STARTING TO MOVE OUT OF THE FA
SHOULD PRECLUDE INCLUDING THIS IN THE GRIDS/ZFP THOUGH.

HAVE TAPERED POPS FROM EAST (HIGHER CHC) TO WEST (LOWER CHC) TODAY.
ANYTHING THAT POPS UP ACRS THE FA SHOULD LAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HRS...THEN THERE APPEARS TO BE LESS OF A CHC OF CONVECTION ACRS THE
FA ON WED WITH A LACK OF ANY DECENT TRIGGER THEN. THE REST OF THE
SHORT-TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY ATTM. T1MAX TEMPS ARE IN THE
U70S-L80S ON WED. T1MIN TEMPS ARE MOSTLY IN THE 40S-M50S TONITE AND
ON WED NITE. WILL OPT TO HANDLE ANY LINGERING FG ISSUES EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH THE STF. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION SOME PATCHY FG ACRS
THE FA FOR LATER TONITE.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FCST FOR NOW EXCEPT TO TRY AND BETTER MESH
WITH SURROUNDING WFOS.

WRK ZONES AND PRELIM ISC GRIDS AVAILABLE. ALL FINAL PRODUCTS BY
4 AM.

.AVIATION...
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS...REMNANTS FROM THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CONTINUE TO LINGER
OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.  HOWEVER...ANY CEILINGS ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE CLOUDS ARE IN THE VFR CATEGORY.  AREAS OF FOG WILL EXIST
THROUGH ABOUT 14Z WITH LIFR AND VLIFR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED.  AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE THE PAST TWO AFTERNOONS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND 18Z AND PERSIST THROUGH
ABOUT 00Z.  FOR THE MOST PART...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN
IN THE VFR CATEGORY DURING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT
COULD BRIEFLY FALL INTO THE IFR CATEGORY.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AFTER 00Z.  WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER
10 KNOTS.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...MURRAY
AVIATION...EVENSON





FXUS61 KBTV 310146
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
945 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST 2 DAYS...TSRA ACTIVITY HAS
DIMINISHED WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. NUMEROUS SHWRS ACRS VT
ATTM...WITH ONLY WIDELY SCT ACTIVITY ACRS NRN NY. EXPECT A
FURTHER DECREASE IN PCPN COVERAGE OVER NEXT SEVERAL HRS...WITH
PATCHY FOG FORMING OVERNIGHT AS SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER
DEVELOP. UPDATED ZONES/GRIDS ALREADY SENT...MAINLY JUST TO KEEP
FCST CURRENT BY REMOVING CHC OF TSRA OVERNIGHT...AND TO ADJUST
POPS A BIT TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS TONITE
EXPECTED TO BE IN MID 40S TO AROUND 50.

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND DURING
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME EXCEPTIONS. EXPECT
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL OCNLY LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS INTO MVFR AND PSBLY IFR RANGE BTWN 06Z-12Z. EXPECT
SCT SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP TUESDAY PM...WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 343 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2005)

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TS ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...A SIMILAR
SCENARIO TO YESTERDAY WHICH SAW PRECIP START UP AROUND NOONTIME.
LIGHT WINDS OVER CWA PUSHING TS SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH AS THEY DEVELOP.
BASED ON MDL INFO...EXPECTING TS ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE W/ SUN
SETTING...THEN TO LIGHT RW AND FOG TOWARDS MORNING. INFLUENCE OF
UPPER LOW STILL PREVALENT TUES WITH INCR POPS AGAIN IN LATEST MDL
RUNS. WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP CH POPS FOR RW AND AFTERNOON TRW...AND
AGAIN TAPERING OFF NEAR SUNSET. TUES NGT THRU WED AS STRONG SFC
RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...AREA WILL BE LOOKING AT INCR TEMPS
BUT LL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER AND W/ REMNANTS OF UPPER LOW TO OUR
EAST....WILL KEEP SL CHANCE FOR RW WED AND THURS DURING THE DAY.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE OVERALL PATTERN WL BE GNRL ULVL RIDGING BUILDING INTO FA WITH
SFC HIGH DEPARTING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD BUT SOME SFC
RIDGING WORKING BACK INTO FA. A COUPLE OF WEAK ULVL VORT MAXES AND
ELONGATED VORT CHANNEL CUD BRG ABT SOME INSTABILITY -SHRA AND HAVE
PLACED SLGT CHC AT TIMES. THE MAIN WX MAKER WL BE A SFC WAVE AND FNT
APPRCHG/MVG THRU FA MON WITH SHRA/TSRA. TMPS WL CONT TO INCREASE THRU
PERIOD ALG WITH HUMIDITY WITH ABV NORMAL TMPS BUT XPCTD CONTS FOR
FIRST WEEK OF JUNE.

AVIATION...
PRETTY MUCH SMLR TO YDY...DFRNTL HEATING WITH ELONGATED VORT
CHANNELS AND TOPOGRAPHY PLAYING ROLE IN SHRA/TSRA ACTVTY AS LAPSE
RATES ARE QUITE LARGE. ACTVTY NOT QUITE AS EXTENSIVE AS YDY AND A
VORT CHANNEL/WEAK TROF ACRS ST LWRNC VLY OF CANADA THE FOCUS OF SOMW
ACTVTY. VFR CONDS WL DOMINATE THRU PERIOD WITH SOME XCPTNS...THRU 22Z
ISOLD/SCT -SHRA/-TSRA WL MAINLY BRG MVFR BUT VRY ISOLD IFR PSBL IN
LCLZD TSRA DOWNPOUR AS WE SAW AT KSLK YDY. AFT 00Z...MAINLY VFR
WITH SOME MVF DUE TO RDTNL COOLING FOG IN MTN VLYS...ESP WHERE PCPN
HAS FALLEN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$







FXUS61 KBTV 301943
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
343 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TS ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...A SIMILAR
SCENARIO TO YESTERDAY WHICH SAW PRECIP START UP AROUND NOONTIME.
LIGHT WINDS OVER CWA PUSHING TS SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH AS THEY DEVELOP.
BASED ON MDL INFO...EXPECTING TS ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE W/ SUN
SETTING...THEN TO LIGHT RW AND FOG TOWARDS MORNING. INFLUENCE OF
UPPER LOW STILL PREVALENT TUES WITH INCR POPS AGAIN IN LATEST MDL
RUNS. WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP CH POPS FOR RW AND AFTERNOON TRW...AND
AGAIN TAPERING OFF NEAR SUNSET. TUES NGT THRU WED AS STRONG SFC
RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...AREA WILL BE LOOKING AT INCR TEMPS
BUT LL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER AND W/ REMNANTS OF UPPER LOW TO OUR
EAST....WILL KEEP SL CHANCE FOR RW WED AND THURS DURING THE DAY.
&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE OVERALL PATTERN WL BE GNRL ULVL RIDGING BUILDING INTO FA WITH
SFC HIGH DEPARTING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD BUT SOME SFC
RIDGING WORKING BACK INTO FA. A COUPLE OF WEAK ULVL VORT MAXES AND
ELONGATED VORT CHANNEL CUD BRG ABT SOME INSTABILITY -SHRA AND HAVE
PLACED SLGT CHC AT TIMES. THE MAIN WX MAKER WL BE A SFC WAVE AND FNT
APPRCHG/MVG THRU FA MON WITH SHRA/TSRA. TMPS WL CONT TO INCREASE THRU
PERIOD ALG WITH HUMIDITY WITH ABV NORMAL TMPS BUT XPCTD CONTS FOR
FIRST WEEK OF JUNE.
&&

.AVIATION...
PRETTY MUCH SMLR TO YDY...DFRNTL HEATING WITH ELONGATED VORT
CHANNELS AND TOPOGRAPHY PLAYING ROLE IN SHRA/TSRA ACTVTY AS LAPSE
RATES ARE QUITE LARGE. ACTVTY NOT QUITE AS EXTENSIVE AS YDY AND A
VORT CHANNEL/WEAK TROF ACRS ST LWRNC VLY OF CANADA THE FOCUS OF SOMW
ACTVTY. VFR CONDS WL DOMINATE THRU PERIOD WITH SOME XCPTNS...THRU 22Z
ISOLD/SCT -SHRA/-TSRA WL MAINLY BRG MVFR BUT VRY ISOLD IFR PSBL IN
LCLZD TSRA DOWNPOUR AS WE SAW AT KSLK YDY. AFT 00Z...MAINLY VFR
WITH SOME MVF DUE TO RDTNL COOLING FOG IN MTN VLYS...ESP WHERE PCPN
HAS FALLEN.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW










FXUS61 KBTV 301941
AFDBTV

FXUS61 KBTV 301922
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
341 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TS ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...A SIMILAR
SCENARIO TO YESTERDAY WHICH SAW PRECIP START UP AROUND NOONTIME.
LIGHT WINDS OVER CWA PUSHING TS SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH AS THEY DEVELOP.
BASED ON MDL INFO...EXPECTING TS ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE W/ SUN
SETTING...THEN TO LIGHT RW AND FOG TOWARDS MORNING. INFLUENCE OF
UPPER LOW STILL PREVALENT TUES WITH INCR POPS AGAIN IN LATEST MDL
RUNS. WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP CH POPS FOR RW AND AFTERNOON TRW...AND
AGAIN TAPERING OFF NEAR SUNSET. TUES NGT THRU WED AS STRONG SFC
RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...AREA WILL BE LOOKING AT INCR TEMPS
BUT LL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER AND W/ REMNANTS OF UPPER LOW TO OUR
EAST....WILL KEEP SL CHANCE FOR RW WED AND THURS DURING THE DAY.
&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE OVERALL PATTERN WL BE GNRL ULVL RIDGING BUILDING INTO FA WITH
SFC HIGH DEPARTING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD BUT SOME SFC
RIDGING WORKING BACK INTO FA. A COUPLE OF WEAK ULVL VORT MAXES AND
ELONGATED VORT CHANNEL CUD BRG ABT SOME INSTABILITY -SHRA AND HAVE
PLACED SLGT CHC AT TIMES. THE MAIN WX MAKER WL BE A SFC WAVE AND FNT
APPRCHG/MVG THRU FA MON WITH SHRA/TSRA. TMPS WL CONT TO INCREASE THRU
PERIOD ALG WITH HUMIDITY WITH ABV NORMAL TMPS BUT XPCTD CONTS FOR
FIRST WEEK OF JUNE.
&&

.AVIATION...
PRETTY MUCH SMLR TO YDY...DFRNTL HEATING WITH ELONGATED VORT
CHANNELS AND TOPOGRAPHY PLAYING ROLE IN SHRA/TSRA ACTVTY AS LAPSE
RATES ARE QUITE LARGE. ACTVTY NOT QUITE AS EXTENSIVE AS YDY AND A
VORT CHANNEL/WEAK TROF ACRS ST LWRNC VLY OF CANADA THE FOCUS OF SOMW
ACTVTY. VFR CONDS WL DOMINATE THRU PERIOD WITH SOME XCPTNS...THRU 22Z
ISOLD/SCT -SHRA/-TSRA WL MAINLY BRG MVFR BUT VRY ISOLD IFR PSBL IN
LCLZD TSRA DOWNPOUR AS WE SAW AT KSLK YDY. AFT 00Z...MAINLY VFR
WITH SOME MVF DUE TO RDTNL COOLING FOG IN MTN VLYS...ESP WHERE PCPN
HAS FALLEN.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW







   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

699
ASUS51 KBTV 281918
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
300 PM EDT MON JUN 28 2004

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-282000-
_____VERMONT_____


CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     PTSUNNY   68  43  40 W10G16    30.00S
MONTPELIER     PTSUNNY   67  44  43 SW9       30.05S
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    67  46  47 VRB6      30.01F
ST. JOHNSBURY    N/A     70  46  42 VRB7      29.98F
RUTLAND        CLOUDY    64  45  48 SW9       30.05S
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    71  47  42 W9        30.04F
BENNINGTON     PTSUNNY   68  48  48 VRB7      30.05F

______KEY______
VSB  - VISIBILITY IN MILES
WCI  - WIND CHILL INDEX
HX   - HEAT INDEX
$$
NNNN

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