Expires:201511132100;;284983
FPUS51 KBTV 131123
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
620 AM EST FRI NOV 13 2015


VTZ006-132100-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
620 AM EST FRI NOV 13 2015

.TODAY...SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO
15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT. 
.TONIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW
ACCUMULATION A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 30. WEST WINDS 15 TO
20 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTHWEST
WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND
10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. 
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 50S. 

$$


Expires:201511131200;;285059
ASUS41 KBTV 131130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST FRI NOV 13 2015

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-131200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     LGT RAIN  50  42  74 S9        29.31R                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    49  38  65 MISG      29.34R                  
MORRISVILLE    LGT RAIN  48  43  82 SW7       29.31R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     48  41  76 MISG      29.29S                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    45  42  88 SE10      29.31S                  
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    50  42  72 S9        29.36R                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    50  37  62 SW7       29.40R                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    51  38  60 S5        29.40R                  
HIGHGATE*      RAIN      47  45  91 SW6       29.28R                  
NEWPORT*       RAIN      44  43  96 SW9       29.28S                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    51  38  60 VRB3      29.45R                  
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     41 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     36 N/A N/A W39         N/A  WCI  21          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     52  46  82 S18         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     52  45  76 S17         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;285501
FXUS61 KBTV 131142
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
642 AM EST FRI NOV 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH ACROSS ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC TODAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING BREEZY AND WET CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN...WE CAN
EXPECT A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. AFTER A SEASONABLY CHILLY WEEKEND...DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 634 AM EST FRIDAY...MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY
TEMPS AND POPS THROUGH MID MORNING TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
DATA AND TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. BLUSTERY AND SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND POTENT
SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND NORTHERN VERMONT...WITH MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY SOUTH.
PRECIPITATION BECOMING MORE OROGRAPHIC IN NATURE AS LOW LEVEL
WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWS FOR CONTINUED MOISTURE FEED OFF OF
GREAT LAKES AND FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS OVER ADIRONDACKS AND
EVENTUALLY THE NORTHERN GREENS. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
MODERATELY STRONG GRADIENT FLOW WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED GUSTY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. EXPECT WEST-SOUTHWEST
WINDS 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. TEMPS GRADUALLY COOLING WITH
850 MB TEMPS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING...SO RAIN WILL MIX WITH OR
CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE SUMMITS. VALLEY TEMPS STILL RATHER MILD
TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 332 PM EST THURSDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES
NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AS SURFACE LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION. FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS DEVELOP AS FLOW BECOMES
NORTHWEST AND BLOCKED OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR SHOWERS TO TURN OVER TO
A PERIOD OF SNOW IN MANY AREAS BEFORE ENDING LATER TONIGHT OR
EARLY SATURDAY AS SNOW LEVELS LOWER FROM 2500-3000FT THIS EVENING
TO 500FT OR LESS BY SATURDAY MORNING. SUMMIT SNOW ACCUMULATION OF
2-5" POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY MT. MANSFIELD TO JAY PEAK...WITH A
COATING TO 2" OR SO AT ELEVATIONS 500 FT AND UPWARD BY AROUND 15Z
SATURDAY. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
30S...BUT SOME UPPER 20S OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.

UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE FLOW DISSIPATES BY
AROUND 18Z SATURDAY WITH SOME IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW.
PROGGED 850MB TEMPS BETWEEN -5C AND -8C SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE
30S MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 40S IN THE VALLEYS.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PULLS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WHILE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY EAST FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY. COULD BE A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES IN NORTHEAST VERMONT SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SEASONABLY
CHILLY TEMPS. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO THE
LOWER 30S...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 323 AM EST FRIDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS MEDIUM RANGE GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO FEATURE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS WITH A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WEST AND A BUILDING
RIDGE OVER THE EAST. THE RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH MODELS
DIVERGING THEREAFTER. WITH SUCH AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE
ACROSS THE EAST WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RUN A GOOD 5- 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-NOVEMBER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S MONDAY, WARMING A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY TO A PEAK IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S BY THURSDAY. LOWS FOLLOW SUIT IN THE 30S
SUNDAY NIGHT, WARMING INTO THE 40S BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY NIGHTS.

IN REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEYOND TUESDAY NIGHT, LATEST
GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING OUT OF THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY, AND HOW IT
AFFECTS THE UPPER RIDGE DOWNSTREAM. GFS CONTINUES TO OFFER A
SLOWER, MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA HIGH AND
DRY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND A GOOD 24 HOURS FASTER WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
PASSAGE. IT APPEARS THAT WITH EITHER SOLUTION WEDNESDAY WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT WARM AIR
ADVECTION SHOWERS, BUT PRECIP CHANCES ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FOR THE
THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME-FRAME RIGHT NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR WILL START THE TAF
PERIOD, WITH ALL SITES TRENDING TO MVFR BY MID-DAY EXCEPT FOR KRUT
WHERE VFR WILL PREVAIL. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA GOING TOWARDS MID-DAY, CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. PRECIP WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN, THOUGH A
TRANSITION TO RAIN/SNOW AND EVENTUALLY SNOW IS EXPECTED AT KSLK
AFTER 02Z. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH- SOUTHWEST AROUND
8-12KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS, BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
12Z SAT - 21Z SAT...PRIMARILY MVFR IN AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
STRATUS, THOUGH LOCALLY IFR AT KSLK AND POSSIBLY KMPV IN SNOW
SHOWERS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING.
21Z SAT - 00Z WED...TRENDING BACK TO VFR UNDER BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 15
TO 25 KNOTS TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC. WINDS WILL TURN INTO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT
15 TO 25 KNOTS ON SATURDAY...BEFORE DIMINISHING A BIT LATER IN THE
DAY. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE 1 TO 3 FEET ON THE BROAD LAKE
TODAY...AND 2 TO 4 FEET TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS/DEAL
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
MARINE...MV/RJS

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