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March 2016, Week 3

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Subject:
From:
"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>
Reply To:
Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>
Date:
Thu, 17 Mar 2016 06:50:01 -0400
Content-Type:
text/plain
Parts/Attachments:
text/plain (230 lines)
Expires:201603172000;;199010
FPUS51 KBTV 170826
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
424 AM EDT THU MAR 17 2016


VTZ006-172000-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
424 AM EDT THU MAR 17 2016

.TODAY...PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. MOSTLY SUNNY THIS MORNING...THEN
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS
UP TO 35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT. 
.TONIGHT...CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY...CLOUDY. SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...MAINLY IN THE MORNING. TOTAL
SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.
NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
LOWS AROUND 10 ABOVE. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
30 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 15 MPH. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 10 ABOVE. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS
AROUND 20. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 30S. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS
15 TO 20. 
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 30. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS 15 TO 20. 
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF SNOW 40 PERCENT. 

$$


Expires:201603171100;;203843
ASUS41 KBTV 171030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT THU MAR 17 2016

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-171100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     FAIR      44  41  89 S8        29.75S                  
MONTPELIER     FAIR      40  39  97 CALM      29.78S                  
MORRISVILLE    FOG       35  35 100 S5        29.75F VSB 3/4 WCI  31  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     39  37  92 MISG      29.74F                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FOG       39  39  98 CALM      29.76S VSB 1/4          
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    40  40 100 CALM      29.77R                  
RUTLAND*       FAIR      36  34  93 SE7       29.78S WCI  30          
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    42  41  96 W3        29.79F                  
HIGHGATE*      MOCLDY    40  39  97 SW3       29.74F FOG              
NEWPORT*         N/A    N/A N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
BENNINGTON     FOG       36  35  96 CALM      29.79F VSB 1/2          
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     36 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     41 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     34 N/A N/A NW26G38     N/A  WCI  21          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     39  39 100 S9          N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     43  43 100 W5          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;199700
FXUS61 KBTV 170836
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
436 AM EDT THU MAR 17 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WIDE VARIETY OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
INCREASING WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40 MP RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL ALSO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY WINDS AND
VERY SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE SHOWERS OR
STORMS. THE SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE TONIGHT...BUT
THEN A COLD FRONT WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA LATE TONIGHT AND A BURST
OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
MORNING COMMUTE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT THURSDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED FOR
TODAY AND TONIGHT. ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH EXISTS JUST TO OUR WEST
AND NORTH. COLDER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH...COMBINED
WITH ABOVE NORMAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S...WILL CREATE DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES THAT ARE STEEP
THROUGH A RATHER DEEP LAYER. THIS SUGGESTS A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT
THINGS WILL HAPPEN. FIRST SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL EXIST DUE TO
THE STEEP LAPSE RATES FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME THUNDER AS
WELL. THE DEEP MIXING THAT WILL TAKE PLACE DUE TO THE STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL ALLOW FOR LOW LEVEL DRYING AND THE CREATION OF AN
INVERTED-V SOUNDING. THUS THE SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE HIGH
BASED IN NATURE AND THE POTENTIAL WOULD EXIST FOR SOME GUSTY
DOWNDRAFT WINDS. THE COLDER AIR ALOFT COULD ALSO LEAD TO SOME VERY
SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL. THIS THREAT IS SMALL BUT CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. THE DEEP MIXING WILL ALSO ALLOW STRONGER FLOW ALOFT TO MIX
DOWN AND IN GENERAL WE SHOULD SEE WIND GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE FORECAST AS WELL. LASTLY...THE DEEP
MIXING WILL PRODUCE RATHER DRY AIR AND HAVE ADJUSTED DEW POINTS
NOTICEABLY DOWNWARD THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT...LAPSE RATES BEGIN TO STABILIZE AND AREAL COVERAGE
OF THE SHOWERS WILL DECREASE SHARPLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND WIND
GUSTS WILL BE LIMITED AS WELL. HOWEVER...AFTER MIDNIGHT UPSTREAM
UPPER TROUGH MOVES DOWN INTO OUR AREA ALONG WITH A SURFACE COLD
FRONT. COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES AND INCREASING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT TO GO ALONG WITH
DYNAMIC SUPPORT FROM UPPER TROUGH TO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING
COMMUTE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF VERMONT. WITH SO MANY ELEMENTS IMPACTING THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT TO BRING A BIT MORE ATTENTION TO THE CHANGING WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT THURSDAY...SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY
MORNING AS COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA CONTINUES TO
DROP SOUTH AND AWAY FROM OUR AREA. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL
BE DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS 850 TEMPS DROP INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT THURSDAY...SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL
CONTINUE ALONG WITH DRIER WEATHER AND COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. ON SUNDAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AND BEGINS TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD. MODELS HAVE
CONTINUED WITH TREND TO BRING LOW CLOSER TO BENCHMARK AND WITH
THIS PATH OUR REGION MAY HAVE SOME IMPACTS. GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT
COMPLETELY IN AGREEMENT ON THIS SYSTEM...BUT BOTH HAVE TRENDED
CLOSER TO THE BENCHMARK MUCH LIKE THE 16/12Z RUNS. GFS IS A BIT
FASTER AND JUST OUTSIDE THE BENCHMARK...WHILE ECMWF BRINGS THE
CENTER OF THE LOW JUST INSIDE THE BENCHMARK AND ABOUT 12 HOURS
SLOWER. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL RUNS TO HOPE
FOR CONTINUED RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL CONSISTENCY TO
INCREASE CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. AT THIS TIME BEST
CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
VERMONT. EXTENDED RANGE MODELS FROM TUESDAY ONWARD SHOW A
CONTINUED UNSETTLED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NY
WITH VFR CIGS AND VIS IN RAIN SHOWERS AT KSLK AND KMSS. RAIN TO
SPREAD ON EASTWARD, BEGINNING AT KBTV/KRUT/KPBG AT BEGINNING OF
00Z TAF PERIOD AND CLOSE ENOUGH AT KMPV TO OPEN WITH SHOWERS AS
WELL. BASED ON OBSERVATION TRENDS WENT WITH MVFR VIS AND VFR CIGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAIN. PRECIPITATION ENDS WEST TO EAST 02-08Z
IMPROVING TO VFR WITH LINGERING VCSH IN PREDAWN HOURS. VFR NO
PRECIP THURSDAY MORNING, THEN FROM ABOUT 18Z ON RENEWED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AGAIN WITH MVFR VIS AND VFR AS ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES. POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER...HOWEVER PROBABILITY TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE THIS FAR OUT IN TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

COULD BE SOME LOCAL BR/FG TONIGHT BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS BECOME SW 5 TO 10 KTS THURSDAY MORNING START INCREASING BY
NOON WITH SOME GUSTS 25 TO 30KT BY 18Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 
THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ANY RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS
WITH LOCAL IFR THURSDAY NIGHT, ENDING FRIDAY MORNING BECOMING VFR.

SAT/SUN...VFR HIGH PRESSURE.

MON...MAINLY VFR AS COASTAL LOW MOVES UP THE COAST EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...EVENSON/HANSON

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