Expires:200603140015;;172411
FPUS51 KBTV 130936
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
435 AM EST MON MAR 13 2006


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>018-140015-
ORLEANS-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-ORANGE-EASTERN FRANKLIN-
EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...ISLAND POND...JOHNSON...STOWE...
ST. JOHNSBURY...MONTPELIER...BRADFORD...RANDOLPH...ENOSBURG FALLS...
RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON
435 AM EST MON MAR 13 2006

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...WIDESPREAD FOG THIS MORNING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY 
WITH RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE 
WINDS BECOMING EAST AROUND 5 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...RAIN WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 
MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE. LOWS AROUND 20. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
35 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
30 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 10 ABOVE. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 10 TO 15. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 30. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS 10 TO 15. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 30. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 10 TO 15. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. 

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

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FXUS61 KBTV 131019
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
519 AM EST MON MAR 13 2006

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME. EXPECT FOG
TO LIFT LATER THIS MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE AND AS RAIN MOVES INTO
THE REGION. WARM FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
PLENTY OF OVERRUNNING INDICATED WITH RAIN CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT AS
WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT.
COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW A LOW LEVEL INVERSION ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SHOWALTER INDICES
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION TONIGHT ABOVE
THE INVERSION...SO HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST. HAVE GONE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

COLD FRONT TO BE JUST EAST OF THE REGION BY 12Z ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD AS WINDS PICK UP BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW TO BE OVER QUEBEC TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES TO ROTATE AROUND IT ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE GONE WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS...EXCEPT LIKELY POPS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS.

ON WEDNESDAY...WILL KEEP IN A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATION OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AS AREA
WILL STILL BE UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. WILL
DROP MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT.

NO CHANGES MADE TO THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEYOND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION...
LIFR CIGS AND VIS FOR ALL BUT KSLK...WHERE VIS IFR AND CIGS MVFR.
PLENTY OF WARM LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOCKED IN OVER COLD/SNOWY GROUND
TO CREATE DENSE FOG. PREVIOUS FCST BASED ON 00Z MODEL RUNS HAD SFC
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING BY
11-12Z TO SCOUR OUT FOG/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER 06Z NAM KEEP
HIGH PRESSURE AND CALM WINDS OVER AT LEAST KBTV/KMPV AFTER 12Z WITH
SOUTH WINDS STARTING UP BY 15Z. AS A RESULT...JUST AMENDED KBTV/KMPV
TO REFLECT 2-3 MORE HOURS OF LIFR THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE 13-15Z KBTV...14-16Z KMPV. AT KMSS/KSLK...SLY WINDS WILL
START UP EARLIER WITH IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR BEGINNING BY 11-12Z STILL
INDICATED.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR VTZ001>012-016>019 UNTIL 11 AM MONDAY.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087 UNTIL 11 AM
     MONDAY.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...HANSON









FXUS61 KBTV 130047
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
747 PM EST SUN MAR 12 2006

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
HAVE POSTED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY ACROSS THE FA THROUGH 14Z MON.
HAVE ALREADY SEEN KMPV AND KMVL RECORD VSBY DOWN TO 1/4SM.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS
THE REGION AS SFC BUBBLE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD FROM THE WEST AND
SFC WINDS DIMINISH BELOW 5 MPH. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND AREAS NEAR LAKES/PONDS AND WITH SNOW COVER AS BEING MOST
FAVORABLE FOR DENSE FOG...AS ADDED MOISTURE CONTENT AND DIABATIC
COOLING EFFECTS WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED THERE.

OTHERWISE...WITH SKIES CLEARING MORE RAPIDLY THAN EARLIER
ANTICIPATED...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF ANY PRECIPITATION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. HAVE ALSO REDUCED CLOUD COVER TO PARTLY
CLOUDY...ALTHOUGH AREAS OF ALTERNATING FG/STATUS COMPLICATE THE
CLOUD FORECAST SOMEWHAT. WITH ADVISORY IN PLACE...HAVE EMPHASIZED
FOG POTENTIAL IN GRIDS...ZONES...AS WELL AS AREA TAF SITES.

NPW AND ZFP ALREADY SENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 350 PM EST SUN MAR 12 2006/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BE MOVG THRU FA BY AROUND 00Z. SHWRS CONFINED
MOSTLY TO NRN VT ATTM...WITH JUST WIDELY SCT SHWRS ELSEWHERE.
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AND EXPECT MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z. BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
FA OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN CLR TO P/C SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS
ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG.

LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK UP THRU CENTRAL GRTLKS DURING MONDAY
AND INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE TUESDAY...STRENGTHENING THRU THE PERIOD.
PCPN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST MONDAY PM WHEN FGEN AND MSTR
CONVERGENCE GREATEST AS WRMFRNT LIFTS NORTH INTO RGN. ANOTHER PERIOD
OF SHWRS MON NITE CENTERED AROUND 06Z AS COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES
ACRS FA. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY MENTION OF TSRA ATTM...BUT WILL NEED
TO MONITOR POSSIBILITY FOR MON NITE WITH FROPA WHEN INSTABILITY IS
GREATEST.

LOW WILL BE VERTICALLY STACKED TUES AS IT MAKES ITS WAY ACRS SRN
QUE. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EARLY IN DAY IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
FROPA...BUT INCREASING CHANCES OF PCPN DURING PM...ESPECIALLY DURING
PM OVER HIR TRRN...WITH CAA AND INCR LLVL MSTR. TEMP PROFILES
SUGGEST MSTLY RAIN SHWRS FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS OF VT...WITH A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SHWRS ACRS NRN NY AND HIR TRRN OF NRN VT.
WRAPAROUND SNOW SHWRS TUES NITE/WED ACRS ENTIRE FA. ACCUMULATING
SNOWS EXPECTED OVER ADRNDKS AND UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS OF NRN VT.
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH PSBL TUES...MAINLY ACRS NRN NY.


LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. LOW MIDWEEK CONTINUES INTO
EASTERN CANADA...WITH STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ESE FROM
CENTRAL CANADA. THIS SETS UP N NW FLOW OVER THE REGION...WITH
WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE FILTERING SOUTH ON BACKSIDE OF EXITING LOW THRU
THUR/FRI...W/ LGT QPF AMTS FOR CHANCE/SL CHANCE FOR -SW. LATEST MDL
RUNS NOW SUGGEST FRI/SAT STORM NOW WILL TRACK CLOSER TO CWA...ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHICH IF HOLDS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS
OF CWA...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN ZONES. DUE TO MDLS STILL FLIP-FLOPPING
SOMEWHAT WITH TRACK OF LOW...WILL LET CHANCE/SL CHANCE POPS FOR -SW
HOLD FOR NOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST DURING THE WEEKEND...SLOWLY
PUSHING AND LEFTOVER -SW OUT OF AREA. WILL KEEP SL CHANCE FOR -SW
WORKING INTO WEEKEND WITH FA UNDER N FLOW BUT BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TO
NE VT BY SUNDAY. HAVE KEPT TEMPS CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AS DO NOT SEE
MUCH UPWARD SHIFT IN SIGHT DUE TO N FLOW DURING THIS TIME.

AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR/MVFR COND EXPECTED THRU 00Z AS FRNT MVS THRU FA. -RW
ASSOCIATED WITH FRNT ALONG W/ FG MAY LWR VSBY DOWN TO 3-4SM W/ SPOTS
OF 2SM AT TIMES. MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 2KFT AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE
MVS OVER AREA BRIEFLY 00Z-12Z FOR MAINLY VFR COND. FG DEVELOPING AFT
00Z MAY LWR COND FROM IFR DOWN TO VLIFR AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT
KSLK/KMPV. WINDS BECM LGT/VAR AFT 00Z...BECM ESE BY 12Z-14Z THEN
SHIFTING MORE S AT KBTV/KMPV/KSLK AFT 14Z 10-20KT. LOW/MID LEVEL
CLDS BUILD NORTH 12Z-18Z W/ LGT RW AFT 16Z WHICH MAY BRING MVFR COND
DUE TO VSBY REDUCTION AND CLD DECK BETWEEN 010-030 AT TIMES..

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR VTZ001>012-016>019 UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087 UNTIL 8 AM
     MONDAY.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BANACOS








FXUS61 KBTV 122055
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
350 PM EST SUN MAR 12 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BE MOVG THRU FA BY AROUND 00Z. SHWRS CONFINED
MOSTLY TO NRN VT ATTM...WITH JUST WIDELY SCT SHWRS ELSEWHERE.
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AND EXPECT MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z. BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
FA OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN CLR TO P/C SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS
ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG.

LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO TRACK UP THRU CENTRAL GRTLKS DURING MONDAY
AND INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE TUESDAY...STRENGTHENING THRU THE PERIOD.
PCPN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST MONDAY PM WHEN FGEN AND MSTR
CONVERGENCE GREATEST AS WRMFRNT LIFTS NORTH INTO RGN. ANOTHER PERIOD
OF SHWRS MON NITE CENTERED AROUND 06Z AS COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES
ACRS FA. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY MENTION OF TSRA ATTM...BUT WILL NEED
TO MONITOR POSSIBILITY FOR MON NITE WITH FROPA WHEN INSTABILITY IS
GREATEST.

LOW WILL BE VERTICALLY STACKED TUES AS IT MAKES ITS WAY ACRS SRN
QUE. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EARLY IN DAY IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
FROPA...BUT INCREASING CHANCES OF PCPN DURING PM...ESPECIALLY DURING
PM OVER HIR TRRN...WITH CAA AND INCR LLVL MSTR. TEMP PROFILES
SUGGEST MSTLY RAIN SHWRS FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS OF VT...WITH A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SHWRS ACRS NRN NY AND HIR TRRN OF NRN VT.
WRAPAROUND SNOW SHWRS TUES NITE/WED ACRS ENTIRE FA. ACCUMULATING
SNOWS EXPECTED OVER ADRNDKS AND UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS OF NRN VT.
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH PSBL TUES...MAINLY ACRS NRN NY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. LOW MIDWEEK CONTINUES INTO
EASTERN CANADA...WITH STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ESE FROM
CENTRAL CANADA. THIS SETS UP N NW FLOW OVER THE REGION...WITH
WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE FILTERING SOUTH ON BACKSIDE OF EXITING LOW THRU
THUR/FRI...W/ LGT QPF AMTS FOR CHANCE/SL CHANCE FOR -SW. LATEST MDL
RUNS NOW SUGGEST FRI/SAT STORM NOW WILL TRACK CLOSER TO CWA...ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHICH IF HOLDS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS
OF CWA...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN ZONES. DUE TO MDLS STILL FLIP-FLOPPING
SOMEWHAT WITH TRACK OF LOW...WILL LET CHANCE/SL CHANCE POPS FOR -SW
HOLD FOR NOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST DURING THE WEEKEND...SLOWLY
PUSHING AND LEFTOVER -SW OUT OF AREA. WILL KEEP SL CHANCE FOR -SW
WORKING INTO WEEKEND WITH FA UNDER N FLOW BUT BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TO
NE VT BY SUNDAY. HAVE KEPT TEMPS CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AS DO NOT SEE
MUCH UPWARD SHIFT IN SIGHT DUE TO N FLOW DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR/MVFR COND EXPECTED THRU 00Z AS FRNT MVS THRU FA. -RW
ASSOCIATED WITH FRNT ALONG W/ FG MAY LWR VSBY DOWN TO 3-4SM W/ SPOTS
OF 2SM AT TIMES. MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 2KFT AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE
MVS OVER AREA BRIEFLY 00Z-12Z FOR MAINLY VFR COND. FG DEVELOPING AFT
00Z MAY LWR COND FROM IFR DOWN TO VLIFR AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT
KSLK/KMPV. WINDS BECM LGT/VAR AFT 00Z...BECM ESE BY 12Z-14Z THEN
SHIFTING MORE S AT KBTV/KMPV/KSLK AFT 14Z 10-20KT. LOW/MID LEVEL
CLDS BUILD NORTH 12Z-18Z W/ LGT RW AFT 16Z WHICH MAY BRING MVFR COND
DUE TO VSBY REDUCTION AND CLD DECK BETWEEN 010-030 AT TIMES..

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JN








   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://www.weather.gov/inlr.php
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

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