Expires:201612182100;;079227
FPUS51 KBTV 181128
ZFPBTV
ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
626 AM EST SUN DEC 18 2016
VTZ006-182100-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF JOHNSON AND STOWE
626 AM EST SUN DEC 18 2016
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...
.TODAY...RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY THIS
MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES. ICE ACCUMULATION OF UP TO A
TENTH OF AN INCH. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. TEMPERATURE FALLING INTO THE
LOWER 20S THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH...BECOMING
WEST 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL
MIDNIGHT...THEN MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. MUCH COLDER WITH LOWS
AROUND 4 BELOW. NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW
20 PERCENT. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 21 BELOW.
.MONDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 11. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 4 ABOVE. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND
10 MPH.
.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 20. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 20S.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S.
.THURSDAY...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF
SNOW 70 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S.
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF
SNOW 70 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 20.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.
$$
Expires:201612181200;;079266
ASUS41 KBTV 181130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST SUN DEC 18 2016
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.
VTZ001>019-181200-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON RAIN 40 38 93 S18G37 29.49F FOG WCI 31
MONTPELIER RAIN 37 36 96 SW10 29.55F FOG WCI 30
MORRISVILLE RAIN 33 31 92 CALM 29.51S FOG
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 33 33 100 MISG 29.57F
LYNDONVILLE* LGT RAIN 32 32 100 CALM 29.57F VSB 1
MIDDLEBURY* RAIN N/A N/A N/A S6 29.54S
RUTLAND* LGT RAIN 43 39 87 S8 29.54F
SPRINGFIELD MIX PCPN 33 31 92 CALM 29.66F FOG
HIGHGATE* N/A N/A N/A N/A MISG N/A
NEWPORT* MIX PCPN 33 33 97 S7 29.50F WCI 27
BENNINGTON LGT RAIN 49 44 83 SW9 29.58F
SUTTON* N/A 30 N/A N/A MISG N/A
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 32 N/A N/A MISG N/A
UNION VILLAGE* N/A 32 N/A N/A MISG N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 46 N/A N/A SW37G56 N/A
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND* N/A 37 36 93 SW7 N/A
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 37 37 100 S21 N/A WCI 27
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 37 36 93 S18 N/A WCI 27
$$
Expires:No;;079974
FXUS61 KBTV 181149
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
649 AM EST Sun Dec 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A wave of low pressure tracking northeastward through the St.
Lawrence Valley this morning will bring areas of freezing rain
to far northern and northeastern New York, and areas of Vermont
east of the Green Mountains. Plain rain is expected this morning
on the Vermont side of the Champlain Valley with locally warmer
temperatures. As the low departs, a trailing cold front will
move eastward across the North Country, ushering in rapidly
falling temperatures. Will see any areas of standing water or
slush on roadways quickly freeze, which may cause some icy
spots. Otherwise, clearing skies and brisk conditions will
prevail tonight, with wind chill readings dropping to 10 to 20
below across much of the area. High pressure brings lighter
winds and quieter weather conditions Monday through Wednesday.
Temperatures gradually moderate through mid-week, with our next
chance of rain or snow arriving Thursday into Thursday night.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 638 AM EST Sunday...No significant changes to the
forecast. Icy and dangerous road conditions due to freezing rain
continue across far nrn NY, including nrn St.
Lawrence/Franklin/Clinton counties. With the sfc frontal wave
passing east of this region thru the Champlain Valley currently,
do not anticipate that far nrn/nern NY will get above freezing,
and existing ice accumulation during the past 6-8 hrs will
continue to be a factor thru much of the day on roads/sidewalks.
In VT, east of the sfc low, warming continues to occur aloft,
with temps in the mid 40s above 2000ft. MPV jumped to 37F in the
last hour, but that followed about 6 hrs of steady freezing
rain. Anticipate continued issues on roads in central/ern VT
thru 15Z. Even as temps warm above freezing in spots, pavement
temps remain quite cold, with AOT sites reporting temps 29-31F
generally at 1130Z. With ice accumulation 0.20-0.40" in valley
locations, will likely see some additional power outages thru
the morning hrs, especially as winds become gusty with cold
frontal passage 15-18Z. Max temps occur this AM; Temps will
drop rapidly areawide late morning thru afternoon with FROPA.
Previous discussion...Freezing rain accumulations of 0.20 to
0.40" on track across e-central into nern VT this morning, and
around 0.20-0.25" across the St. Lawrence Valley of NY. Have
extended the winter weather advisory thru 15Z based on current
trends. Temperatures remain in the mid-upr 20s at 08Z east of
the Green Mtns and in the immediate St. Lawrence Valley. Despite
very strong warm advection with 60-70kt swly 850mb jet and
850mb temps warming to +5 to +6C across the srn half of VT,
antecedent arctic air is very difficult to dislodge with
prevailing nely low-level flow around KMSS, and in valley
locations east of the Green Mtn spine. Have seen observed ice
accumulation rates of 0.04" to 0.09" per hour with the ASOS ice
sensors, and that should continue for the next several hours
based on radar trends. All RUC-based models, including HRRR are
much too fast in warming 2-m temps east of the Green Mtns, and
have adjusted forecast based on NCEP 4-km NAM and local BTV-4km
WRF. Will gradually see freezing rain become more limited in
scope as subfreezing layer becomes increasingly limited to the
more sheltered locations east of the Greens. That said, with ZR
amts of 0.2-0.4" possible, will see residual impacts with icy
roads and possible power outages thru the morning. Not expecting
any issues in Addison/Chittenden/Rutland counties, where strong
south winds in the Champlain Valley have allowed temps to rise
to 39F at BTV. So, lots of local variability, with moderate
impacts of ZR near the intl border in NY and nearly all of
central/ern VT. Allow plenty of extra time if traveling in those
locations.
After 15z, surface low will be departing across s-central
Quebec, with strong cold front sweeping ewd across the
Adirondacks and Champlain Valley. Steady precipitation will end,
but anticipate a few snow showers with frontal passage. May see
a coating to an inch in spots 16-19Z.
Next concern will be for a flash freeze situation with rapidly
falling temps this afternoon. Any slush/standing water will
freeze quickly on the roads, and this may also lead to some icy
conditions. Will highlight this in the morning Hazardous
Weather Outlook and possibly with a Special Weather Statement.
After reaching 40F or so this morning, temps will fall to the
lower 20s by 00z at BTV. May also see a few W-NW wind gusts
25-30 mph this afternoon and evening.
For tonight, strong low-level CAA and drying...should see skies
becoming mostly clear. Will have some wind chill concerns, with
readings generally 10 to 20 below overnight, and locally hitting
wind chill criteria across nern VT and the nrn Adirondacks. Will
allow the day shift to take a look with main focus on the
freezing rain this morning. Overnight lows generally -5 to -10F
across nrn NY, and -5F to +5F across central/nrn Vermont.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 417 AM EST Sunday...High pressure crests into the North
Country on Monday with clearing skies and cold air returning.
With 925mb temps ranging from -15C to -18C expect highs in the
high single digits to mid teens across the North Country.
Anticipate temps along the international border and the
Northeast Kingdom to be colder than guidance due to the ice
accumulation that is occurring today.
Quiet weather will continue Monday evening through Tuesday and
with a snowpack and crust of ice in northeast Vermont expect
below zero temps due to radiative cooling in the typical
colder hollows. Tuesday the high pushes east and southerly flow
brings welcomed warm air advection. 925mb temps warm to -5C to
-7C which supports max temps in the upper 20s to lower 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 417 AM EST Sunday...Wednesday will continue to be quiet
for most of the region under continued moderate warm air
advection. A weak shortwave will pass to our north and should
provide some cloud cover but very little precip. That sets the
stage for the system that will bring the potential for some snow
and mixed precip Thursday into Friday. With the 12z suite
yesterday and the 00z suite this morning, guidance has come into
considerable agreement with the position of the upper level
trough over the Great Lakes and the idea of a parent surface low
pressure system tracking up the Saint Lawrence valley by
Thursday afternoon. However there remains considerable spread
in the thermal profiles and how far the warm nose extends
northwards. With the spread in thermal profiles and the fact the
variances in the location of the surface energy Friday I've
opted to continue to run with the blend of guidance. Similar to
the previous forecaster I did increase the chance for precip
over guidance because "something" will precipitate. The
expectation is that we get a warm advection burst of snow then
followed by either mixed precip or continuing as light snow.
Heading into the weekend high pressure returns with quiet
weather and above normal temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Through 12Z Monday...Wide variety of aviation weather conditions
thru 15Z with prevailing MVFR and localized IFR. Frontal wave
bringing periods of rain at BTV/RUT/SLK, and continued FZRA at
MPV/PBG, with FRZA and Sleet at MSS next 1-3 hrs. May also see
some LLWS at MPV/RUT next 1-3 hrs. Thereafter, strong cold
front shifts ewd thru the region. Will see winds shift into the
W-WNW at 10-20kt with gusts 25-28kts this afternoon. May see a
few snow showers as precipitation ends late morning/early aftn,
but otherwise trending VFR with partial clearing. Will see
mostly clear skies and dry conditions overnight. Winds remain
moderately strong from the WNW thru 06Z or so, with gusts
20-25kts possible.
Outlook 12Z Monday through Thursday...
12Z Monday to 12Z Thursday...Generally VFR. Few mtn snow
showers possible Wednesday with brief intervals of MVFR
possible.
12Z Thursday to 00Z Friday...Becoming MVFR/IFR in rain and/or
snow.
&&
.MARINE...
Brief lull in the winds with south winds at 10 to 20 knots but
will be increasing back into the 15 to 25 knot range and
persisting there through much of Sunday. Winds will be shifting
to the northwest by Sunday afternoon but speeds will still be in
the 15 to 25 knot range. With speeds of this magnitude choppy
conditions are expected with 2 to 4 foot waves. Again please
note there will be a wind shift taking place Sunday afternoon.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
VTZ001>004-006>008-010-012-016.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
NYZ026>028-030-031-034-035-087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos
SHORT TERM...Deal
LONG TERM...Deal
AVIATION...Banacos
MARINE...Evenson
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