Expires:202008182000;;430053
FPUS51 KBTV 181019
ZFPBTV
Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
616 AM EDT Tue Aug 18 2020
VTZ006-182000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
616 AM EDT Tue Aug 18 2020
.TODAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers. A slight chance
of thunderstorms this afternoon. Highs in the lower 70s. Light
and variable winds, becoming west around 10 mph this afternoon.
Chance of rain 50 percent.
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy. A chance of showers with a slight
chance of thunderstorms until midnight. Patchy dense fog after
midnight. Lows around 50. Northwest winds around 10 mph. Chance
of rain 40 percent.
.WEDNESDAY...Patchy dense fog in the morning. Partly sunny with a
20 percent chance of showers. Highs in the upper 60s. Northwest
winds around 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Northwest
winds around 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. West winds
around 10 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s.
.FRIDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s.
.SATURDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs around 80.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 60.
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the mid
70s. Chance of rain 50 percent.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the upper 50s.
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the lower 70s.
$$
Expires:202008181100;;430517
ASUS41 KBTV 181030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT TUE AUG 18 2020
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.
VTZ001>019-181100-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON CLOUDY 63 60 90 CALM 29.78S
MONTPELIER CLOUDY 58 58 100 CALM 29.84S
MORRISVILLE FOG 61 59 93 CALM 29.79S VSB 3/4
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 60 58 92 MISG 29.78F
LYNDONVILLE* FOG 57 57 97 CALM 29.82S VSB 3/4
RUTLAND* CLOUDY 59 59 100 CALM 29.82R
SPRINGFIELD LGT RAIN 60 59 96 CALM 29.81R FOG
HIGHGATE* MOCLDY 62 59 90 CALM 29.78R
NEWPORT* CLOUDY 57 55 94 CALM 29.80S
BENNINGTON CLOUDY 64 57 78 SW3 29.84R
ISLAND POND* N/A 57 N/A N/A NW1 N/A
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 54 N/A N/A MISG N/A
LAKE EDEN* N/A 57 N/A N/A CALM N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 55 N/A N/A W17 N/A
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND* N/A 66 63 88 S9 N/A
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 68 63 83 SW13 N/A
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 64 63 94 S5 N/A
$$
Expires:No;;421721
FXUS61 KBTV 180707
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
307 AM EDT Tue Aug 18 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak surface front will cross the area today with scattered
showers and a few storms. Mainly dry weather returns for tonight
through the remainder of the work week as surface high pressure
builds across the region. The next chance of significant
precipitation occurs by next weekend with the approach of
another frontal system.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 247 AM EDT Tuesday...An occluded boundary remains draped
across the area early this morning with scattered showers and
isolated storms ongoing. Expect this activity to continue
through sunrise, though generally wane in areal coverage as the
boundary edges eastward.
In terms of the forecast for today the overall thinking hasn't
appreciably changed to any large extent. We remain embedded within
broad cyclonic upper flow at the base of an atypically large
longwave trough by mid-August standards. Another, fairly decent
vorticity center and associated surface trough embedded within this
flow will swing through the area this afternoon with a gradual
reblossoming of scattered showers and a few storms. Activity should
be most focused across central and northern counties where better
low level moisture convergence will be present, but given at least
some modest instability and deep layer shear area wide I can't rule
out a shower or storm anywhere. Organized strong to severe wx is not
expected. High temperatures should be quite similar to yesterday,
ranging mainly through the 70s.
Lingering showers then taper off this evening as surface trough
pushes east, leaving largely dry conditions for the overnight hours.
Patchy fog in favored river valleys/hollows of eastern VT and the
Adirondacks will also be a good bet as temperatures fall to
pleasantly cool values from 45 to 55 or so.
A final lobe of vorticity associated with departing upper trough
then swings through the area on Wednesday. Drier air will be more
abundant aloft so most areas should remain dry outside of the far
northern mountains where a scattered sprinkle or light shower will
be possible during the afternoon. High temperatures ease back a tad
more with values peaking by late afternoon from the upper 60s to mid
70s under partly sunny skies.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 304 AM EDT Tuesday...Base of the upper trough finally swings
across Wednesday night with remaining PoPs tapering off and
gradually clearing skies. Surface high pressure does not reach our
region until later in the morning, so some light winds will keep us
from perfectly radiating out. Still, a cool air mass will be in
place, bringing lows to lower 50s in the valleys and lower to mid
40s across the Adirondacks and Greens. A perfect late summer day for
the North Country on Thursday with light winds and highs in the 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 304 AM EDT Tuesday...We remain under the influence of a
gradually deamplifying longwave trough with west-northwest to
northwest flow aloft. The question will be how far south weak
perturbations embedded within the upper trough reach and how much
moisture will be associated with them. Still think Friday should be
mostly dry with confluent upper flow, but a few areas along the
International Border could see a shower as a low-level trough pushes
east across Quebec Province. We moderate into the upper 70s to mid
80s on Friday as southwesterly flow advects some warmer air into the
region. Saturday should also be fairly dry, but a similar scenario
should unfold with a weaker shortwave passing a bit further south in
Quebec Province. This means scattered showers possible mainly along
the International Border, but one or two could stray further south
into the Adirondacks or central Vermont.
As we head into Sunday, surface high drifts eastward and a broad
region of lower pressure takes its place while an upper shortwave
traverses the Great Lakes region. Looks like better coverage of
showers and thunderstorms will be possible Sunday as better moisture
filters into our region while another shortwave passing south of us.
How these features interact, the orientation of the trough, and
where the best forcing is are all fairly different between various
synoptic models and runs. 0-6km bulk shear will be increasing to 20-
25 knots ahead of this feature with 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE. The
question will be whether we have sufficient dynamical forcing to
work to produce stronger convection. It looks like some
activity will linger into Monday before drying out for next
Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...Mainly VFR through the forecast period.
Scattered showers to continue moving east across the area
through 12Z with weak surface front in the vicinity. Some
patchy MVFR/IFR possible in br and/or low stratus at KMPV.
Coverage of showers to lessen over time so many terminals to
remain dry during this period. Scattered showers and a few
storms reblossom after 16Z so VCSH offered at most terminals in
the 18-00Z time frame after which coverage wanes. Winds
generally light and variable through 12Z, trending
west/southwesterly 4-8 kts from 12-18Z, then west to
northwesterly 6-10 kts thereafter as front clears east.
Outlook...
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Haynes
AVIATION...JMG
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