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August 2018, Week 1

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Subject:
From:
Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>
Reply To:
Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>
Date:
Wed, 1 Aug 2018 06:50:02 -0400
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Expires:201808012000;;377617
FPUS51 KBTV 011022
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
619 AM EDT Wed Aug 1 2018


VTZ006-012000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
619 AM EDT Wed Aug 1 2018

.TODAY...Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers with a slight chance of
thunderstorms this afternoon. Highs in the upper 70s. South winds
around 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Showers likely with a slight chance of
thunderstorms until midnight, then a chance of showers after
midnight. Humid with lows in the upper 60s. Southwest winds around
10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent. 
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers in the morning,
then partly sunny with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
in the afternoon. Humid with highs in the mid 80s. Light and
variable winds, becoming west around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance
of rain 40 percent. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of showers. Lows in
the mid 60s. Light and variable winds. Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.FRIDAY...Showers likely. Humid with highs in the upper 70s. Light
and variable winds. Chance of rain 70 percent. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the mid 60s. Chance of rain
60 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the lower 80s. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 60s. 
.SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 80s. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 60s. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Highs in the mid 80s. Chance of rain 40 percent. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the mid 60s. 
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Highs in the lower 80s. Chance of rain 50 percent. 

$$


Expires:201808011100;;377836
ASUS41 KBTV 011030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT WED AUG 01 2018

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-011100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     FAIR      73  63  70 SE7       30.06S                  
MONTPELIER     MOCLDY    61  61 100 CALM      30.16R FOG              
MORRISVILLE    FAIR      60  60 100 CALM      30.11F                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     63  63 100 MISG      30.10F                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      62  60  96 CALM      30.15S                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      68  64  86 CALM      30.10R                  
RUTLAND*       FAIR      65  62  90 SE5       30.12S                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    61  61 100 CALM      30.15R FOG              
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      72  64  78 S8        30.05R                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      61  61  99 SW7       30.12R                  
BENNINGTON     FAIR      64  61  90 CALM      30.12S                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     59 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     59 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     61 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     59 N/A N/A S12         N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     73  64  73 SE15        N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     73  66  78 S20         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     72  66  83 S8          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;372832
FXUS61 KBTV 010820
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
420 AM EDT Wed Aug 1 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Mid summer conditions will prevail across the region through 
early next week as strong high pressure remains anchored across 
the western Atlantic. This will keep warm and humid weather in 
place through the period, with on and off chances of showers and
a few thunderstorms. The highest threat of showers and storms 
will occur later today, and again by this Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Wednesday...The forecast remains largely on 
track for today as southwesterly flow aloft pushes an 
increasingly moist airmass into our region. Chances for showers 
and a few thunderstorms will gradually increase through the day,
maximizing into the late afternoon and evening hours as a weak 
synoptic ripple moves through the flow. SPC maintains a marginal
risk for severe weather across our area today, though at this 
point it appears ambient cloud cover will greatly limit 
instability. This fact along with rather meager lapse rates 
aloft warrant omission of any enhanced wording for severe storms
in our area with the better threat likely setting up further 
south down across the northern Mid-Atlantic region. PWAT values 
surge into the 1.75 to 2 inch range today so any storms that do 
form have the potential to produce locally heavy downpours. 
Ambient flow aloft is quite decent however, so they'll be moving
along and my feeling is the overall heavy QPF threat isn't 
overly impressive. Indeed, this morning's global and CAM output 
shows a real lack in heavier QPF coverage across most of our 
area today. If one area stands the best potential it would be 
our far southern VT counties. High temperatures to remain on the
seasonably warm side, but not excessively so - mainly mid 70s 
to lower 80s. With dewpoints climbing well into the 60s to 
around 70 it will certainly feel quite humid by later this 
afternoon.

Scattered/numerous showers and a few storms this evening then 
gradually wane in coverage overnight as aforementioned shortwave 
ripple exits northeast. Clouds will be abundant. There could be some 
additional activity across the SLV later at night associated with a 
dampening longwave trough across the eastern Great Lakes, though 
this appears a conditional threat at this point given lack of 
agreement in this morning's model output. It will be a warm and 
muggy night as lows bottom out in the mid 60s to lower 70s with 
corresponding dewpoints holding in the 60s to around 70. Winds light.

By Thursday we remain in deep and moist southwesterly flow aloft on 
the western side of strengthening high pressure across the western 
Atlantic. However, large scale forcing mechanisms for convection are 
rather nondescript and as such have maintained only an outside shot 
of a widely scattered shower or stray storm through the daylight 
hours (15-25%). Mean 925 mb thermal profiles warm by 3-5C with 
maximum surface temperatures responding in kind, climbing through 
the 80s and a few spots in the Champlain Valley nearing the 90F mark 
by late afternoon. Variable clouds in the morning should trend 
mainly partly sunny by afternoon under modest south/southwesterly 
winds from 6 to 12 mph which will trend a bit gusty in the broad 
valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 415 AM EDT Wednesday...Thursday night will start off with
increasing cloudiness and showers. The upper level dynamics 
significantly improve as an upper level vort max tracks through 
the region combining with surface lift as we sit under the 
right entrance region of a 250mb jet. With strong moisture 
convergence we'll likely see showers and thunderstorms 
especially across southern Vermont. The overlap of high PWAT 
(>1.75") and MLCAPE between 1000-1500 J/kg and warm cloud 
depths of greater than 13,000 feet could lead to some 
potentially heavy rainfall. The current forecast is for rainfall
totals between a half an inch up to an inch across central and 
southern Vermont. The gradient does look to be quite sharp as 
the Saint Lawrence Valley might only see a few hundreths whereas
southeastern Vermont could see an inch to as much as 1.5" from 
Thursday night through Friday night.

With the cloud cover and rainfall, temperatures will be on the 
warmer side at night as lows will only fall into the upper 60s 
to near 70. Those represents departures from normal around of 
about +10 degrees. During the daytime, highs on Friday should 
only warm to the low to mid 80s and then again we'll still be 
above normal Friday night was temps only cool to the low to mid 
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 415 AM EDT Wednesday...High pressure starts building 
Saturday afternoon as the upper level trough flattens out and 
heights start to build. Warm air advection continues and with 
mid level moisture drying out it looks like temps will push into
the mid to upper 80s to near 90 heading into the weekend. By 
Sunday I'd anticipate we'll see temps back in the Champlain 
Valley back into the 90s. Low 90s combined with mid 60s dew 
points lead to heat indexes creeping back into the 90s again and
so I'd imagine A/C will be in full force again. Coming out of 
the weekend temps will still be uncomfortably warm as 925mb 
temps 24-25C supporting low 90s again. So we'll be on the verge 
of another heat wave as we should see at least two days above 90
so we'll see if Tuesday will also end up in the 90s. With that 
amount of heat we'll see some potential for some diurnally 
driven showers but we'll start capped and so I tried to downplay
the amount of showers that the GFS is depicting on Monday. 
Towards the middle of next week we'll see another upper level 
shortwave trough swing through and bring another shot of 
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...Mainly VFR through 18Z with thickening
mid to high clouds across the area. Winds light through 12Z,
trending southerly from 6-12 kts and occasionally gusty into the
15-20 kt range at KPBG/KBTV by this afternoon. From 18Z onward
cigs continue to slowly lower as scattered showers push into the
region. Best shower coverage to generally occur from 20Z onward
into the evening hours. Cigs to generally remain VFR at 
KBTV/KPBG/KMSS with higher probabilities of MVFR at 
KSLK/KRUT/KMPV. Confidence highest at KMPV. Storm prediction 
center maintains a marginal risk of severe storms across our 
area this afternoon/evening, but confidence of severe 
development remains low at this time, and given stabilizing 
effects of current cloud cover feel the storm threat in general 
is on the lower side. As such have omitted any reference to 
-TSRA and resultant CB in the forecasts at this point.

Outlook...

Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...Deal
LONG TERM...Deal
AVIATION...JMG

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