Expires:201808012000;;377617
FPUS51 KBTV 011022
ZFPBTV
Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
619 AM EDT Wed Aug 1 2018
VTZ006-012000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
619 AM EDT Wed Aug 1 2018
.TODAY...Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers with a slight chance of
thunderstorms this afternoon. Highs in the upper 70s. South winds
around 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
.TONIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Showers likely with a slight chance of
thunderstorms until midnight, then a chance of showers after
midnight. Humid with lows in the upper 60s. Southwest winds around
10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers in the morning,
then partly sunny with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
in the afternoon. Humid with highs in the mid 80s. Light and
variable winds, becoming west around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance
of rain 40 percent.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of showers. Lows in
the mid 60s. Light and variable winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.
.FRIDAY...Showers likely. Humid with highs in the upper 70s. Light
and variable winds. Chance of rain 70 percent.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the mid 60s. Chance of rain
60 percent.
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the lower 80s.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 60s.
.SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 80s.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 60s.
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Highs in the mid 80s. Chance of rain 40 percent.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the mid 60s.
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Highs in the lower 80s. Chance of rain 50 percent.
$$
Expires:201808011100;;377836
ASUS41 KBTV 011030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT WED AUG 01 2018
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.
VTZ001>019-011100-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON FAIR 73 63 70 SE7 30.06S
MONTPELIER MOCLDY 61 61 100 CALM 30.16R FOG
MORRISVILLE FAIR 60 60 100 CALM 30.11F
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 63 63 100 MISG 30.10F
LYNDONVILLE* FAIR 62 60 96 CALM 30.15S
MIDDLEBURY* FAIR 68 64 86 CALM 30.10R
RUTLAND* FAIR 65 62 90 SE5 30.12S
SPRINGFIELD CLOUDY 61 61 100 CALM 30.15R FOG
HIGHGATE* FAIR 72 64 78 S8 30.05R
NEWPORT* FAIR 61 61 99 SW7 30.12R
BENNINGTON FAIR 64 61 90 CALM 30.12S
ISLAND POND* N/A 59 N/A N/A CALM N/A
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 59 N/A N/A MISG N/A
UNION VILLAGE* N/A 61 N/A N/A MISG N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 59 N/A N/A S12 N/A
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND* N/A 73 64 73 SE15 N/A
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 73 66 78 S20 N/A
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 72 66 83 S8 N/A
$$
Expires:No;;372832
FXUS61 KBTV 010820
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
420 AM EDT Wed Aug 1 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
Mid summer conditions will prevail across the region through
early next week as strong high pressure remains anchored across
the western Atlantic. This will keep warm and humid weather in
place through the period, with on and off chances of showers and
a few thunderstorms. The highest threat of showers and storms
will occur later today, and again by this Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Wednesday...The forecast remains largely on
track for today as southwesterly flow aloft pushes an
increasingly moist airmass into our region. Chances for showers
and a few thunderstorms will gradually increase through the day,
maximizing into the late afternoon and evening hours as a weak
synoptic ripple moves through the flow. SPC maintains a marginal
risk for severe weather across our area today, though at this
point it appears ambient cloud cover will greatly limit
instability. This fact along with rather meager lapse rates
aloft warrant omission of any enhanced wording for severe storms
in our area with the better threat likely setting up further
south down across the northern Mid-Atlantic region. PWAT values
surge into the 1.75 to 2 inch range today so any storms that do
form have the potential to produce locally heavy downpours.
Ambient flow aloft is quite decent however, so they'll be moving
along and my feeling is the overall heavy QPF threat isn't
overly impressive. Indeed, this morning's global and CAM output
shows a real lack in heavier QPF coverage across most of our
area today. If one area stands the best potential it would be
our far southern VT counties. High temperatures to remain on the
seasonably warm side, but not excessively so - mainly mid 70s
to lower 80s. With dewpoints climbing well into the 60s to
around 70 it will certainly feel quite humid by later this
afternoon.
Scattered/numerous showers and a few storms this evening then
gradually wane in coverage overnight as aforementioned shortwave
ripple exits northeast. Clouds will be abundant. There could be some
additional activity across the SLV later at night associated with a
dampening longwave trough across the eastern Great Lakes, though
this appears a conditional threat at this point given lack of
agreement in this morning's model output. It will be a warm and
muggy night as lows bottom out in the mid 60s to lower 70s with
corresponding dewpoints holding in the 60s to around 70. Winds light.
By Thursday we remain in deep and moist southwesterly flow aloft on
the western side of strengthening high pressure across the western
Atlantic. However, large scale forcing mechanisms for convection are
rather nondescript and as such have maintained only an outside shot
of a widely scattered shower or stray storm through the daylight
hours (15-25%). Mean 925 mb thermal profiles warm by 3-5C with
maximum surface temperatures responding in kind, climbing through
the 80s and a few spots in the Champlain Valley nearing the 90F mark
by late afternoon. Variable clouds in the morning should trend
mainly partly sunny by afternoon under modest south/southwesterly
winds from 6 to 12 mph which will trend a bit gusty in the broad
valleys.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 415 AM EDT Wednesday...Thursday night will start off with
increasing cloudiness and showers. The upper level dynamics
significantly improve as an upper level vort max tracks through
the region combining with surface lift as we sit under the
right entrance region of a 250mb jet. With strong moisture
convergence we'll likely see showers and thunderstorms
especially across southern Vermont. The overlap of high PWAT
(>1.75") and MLCAPE between 1000-1500 J/kg and warm cloud
depths of greater than 13,000 feet could lead to some
potentially heavy rainfall. The current forecast is for rainfall
totals between a half an inch up to an inch across central and
southern Vermont. The gradient does look to be quite sharp as
the Saint Lawrence Valley might only see a few hundreths whereas
southeastern Vermont could see an inch to as much as 1.5" from
Thursday night through Friday night.
With the cloud cover and rainfall, temperatures will be on the
warmer side at night as lows will only fall into the upper 60s
to near 70. Those represents departures from normal around of
about +10 degrees. During the daytime, highs on Friday should
only warm to the low to mid 80s and then again we'll still be
above normal Friday night was temps only cool to the low to mid
60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 415 AM EDT Wednesday...High pressure starts building
Saturday afternoon as the upper level trough flattens out and
heights start to build. Warm air advection continues and with
mid level moisture drying out it looks like temps will push into
the mid to upper 80s to near 90 heading into the weekend. By
Sunday I'd anticipate we'll see temps back in the Champlain
Valley back into the 90s. Low 90s combined with mid 60s dew
points lead to heat indexes creeping back into the 90s again and
so I'd imagine A/C will be in full force again. Coming out of
the weekend temps will still be uncomfortably warm as 925mb
temps 24-25C supporting low 90s again. So we'll be on the verge
of another heat wave as we should see at least two days above 90
so we'll see if Tuesday will also end up in the 90s. With that
amount of heat we'll see some potential for some diurnally
driven showers but we'll start capped and so I tried to downplay
the amount of showers that the GFS is depicting on Monday.
Towards the middle of next week we'll see another upper level
shortwave trough swing through and bring another shot of
showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...Mainly VFR through 18Z with thickening
mid to high clouds across the area. Winds light through 12Z,
trending southerly from 6-12 kts and occasionally gusty into the
15-20 kt range at KPBG/KBTV by this afternoon. From 18Z onward
cigs continue to slowly lower as scattered showers push into the
region. Best shower coverage to generally occur from 20Z onward
into the evening hours. Cigs to generally remain VFR at
KBTV/KPBG/KMSS with higher probabilities of MVFR at
KSLK/KRUT/KMPV. Confidence highest at KMPV. Storm prediction
center maintains a marginal risk of severe storms across our
area this afternoon/evening, but confidence of severe
development remains low at this time, and given stabilizing
effects of current cloud cover feel the storm threat in general
is on the lower side. As such have omitted any reference to
-TSRA and resultant CB in the forecasts at this point.
Outlook...
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...Deal
LONG TERM...Deal
AVIATION...JMG
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