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Expires:202009092000;;542908
FPUS51 KBTV 090648
ZFPBTV
Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
245 AM EDT Wed Sep 9 2020
VTZ006-092000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
245 AM EDT Wed Sep 9 2020
.TODAY...Partly sunny. Patchy dense fog this morning. A slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Highs in the
upper 70s. Light and variable winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms until midnight. Lows in the upper 50s. Light and
variable winds, becoming southwest around 10 mph after midnight.
Chance of rain 20 percent.
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a slight chance of showers in the
morning, then mostly cloudy with a chance of showers in the
afternoon. Highs in the lower 70s. Southwest winds around 10 mph,
becoming west in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of
showers. Less humid with lows in the mid 40s. North winds around
10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 60s. North winds around
10 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the lower 40s.
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s.
.SUNDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the upper 60s. Chance of rain
70 percent.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the lower 50s. Chance of
rain 70 percent.
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the lower 60s.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s.
.TUESDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 60s.
$$
Expires:202009091100;;550700
ASUS41 KBTV 091030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT WED SEP 09 2020
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.
VTZ001>019-091100-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON PTCLDY 59 55 87 S3 30.23S
MONTPELIER LGT RAIN 62 61 96 CALM 30.29R VSB 1/2
MORRISVILLE PTCLDY 56 54 93 CALM 30.25R
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 59 55 87 MISG 30.24R
LYNDONVILLE* FAIR 56 55 95 CALM 30.28R
RUTLAND* CLOUDY 61 61 100 E5 30.28R FOG
SPRINGFIELD CLOUDY 59 59 100 CALM 30.27S FOG
HIGHGATE* CLOUDY 57 54 90 CALM 30.25R
NEWPORT* FAIR 55 52 88 CALM 30.26S
BENNINGTON PTCLDY 58 56 93 S3 30.26R
ISLAND POND* N/A 54 N/A N/A CALM N/A
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 54 N/A N/A MISG N/A
LAKE EDEN* N/A 54 N/A N/A CALM N/A
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND* N/A 59 57 94 W2 N/A
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 61 57 88 W1 N/A
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 61 59 94 SE2 N/A
$$
Expires:No;;542846
FXUS61 KBTV 090645
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
245 AM EDT Wed Sep 9 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front will remain draped across northern counties
through tonight with a few showers possible. The front and
scattered showers will finally push south of the area later
Thursday into Thursday night with slightly cooler air arriving
for Friday into Saturday. The only chance of more significant,
widespread rainfall occurs on Sunday when another surface front
pushes through the area.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 245 AM EDT Wednesday...Mainly a cloud and temperature
forecast challenge for the next 24 hours as a semi-stationary
front remains draped across northern counties/intl. border.
Decent baroclinicity exists across the boundary with cooler
highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s far north/northwest and milder
upper 70s to lower 80s expected today. That said, dynamical
upper support remains rather weak so probabilities of more
widespread, organized rainfall will be limited. Both global and
hi-res models do continue to show some slight moisture pooling
interacting with marginal instability in the boundary layer
along and just south of the front from the Adirondacks northeast
into portions of northwestern VT by mid to late afternoon. As
such I've maintained chance level PoPs in these areas for
scattered showers and perhaps a non-severe storm or two
generally in the 2 to 7 pm time frame.
Variable clouds then continue tonight, especially north in proximity
to the boundary, which will likely bleed south through the Champlain
Valley once again owing to weak pressure-driven channeling effects.
Mainly dry weather continues with perhaps a few passing light
showers along the international border. Low temperatures in the 50s
to around 60.
The front finally begins to shift south by Thursday afternoon in
response to a longwave trough passing off to our north through
southern and central Canada. Dynamical forcing remains rather
unimpressive and given a lack of sfc-based instability only chance
PoPs for scattered showers will be offered with QPF totals mainly
under a quarter inch. High temperatures again reflect expected
position of the boundary by mid-afternoon with cooler values (mid
60s to lower 70s) far north, and upper 70s to lower 80s
central/south.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 AM EDT Wednesday...The quasi-stationary cold front
will finally push through the North Country through the
overnight hours Thursday night into Friday morning. A few rain
showers along the frontal boundary will be possible but moisture
will be waning quickly so the overall coverage should be pretty
minimal. High pressure will build into the North Country during
the day on Friday with a noticeably colder air mass descending
across the region. Temperatures on Friday will struggle to warm
into the lower to upper 60s under mostly clear skies and light
winds. Friday night continues to look like one of the colder
nights as of late with widespread temps in the 40s with a few
locations in the northern Adirondacks and northeaster Vermont
dropping into the mid to upper 30s. It wouldn't be surprising to
see a few patches of frost in the coldest locations but a
widespread frost is not anticipated at this time.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 245 AM EDT Wednesday...Surface high pressure will crest
across the North Country during the day on Saturday. Forecast
soundings continue to show a plethora of dry air associated with
this high pressure which makes it hard to think there will be
much, if any, cloud cover during the day on Saturday.
Temperatures will be 5-8 degrees warmer on Saturday compared to
Friday with afternoon highs warming into the upper 60s to mid
70s. Cloud cover will quickly stream back into the region
Saturday night ahead of an amplifying trough across the Midwest.
A potent upper level shortwave will help the development of a
surface low across the Great Lakes early Sunday morning which
will help drive a cold front through the region Sunday morning
through Sunday afternoon. Both deterministic and ensemble
guidance remains in very good agreement with this scenario and
with the increased confidence, we have increased PoPs to 60-70%
during the day on Sunday. In addition to the rainfall, strong
gradient winds are expected to develop ahead of the front as the
high pressure departs to the east and the front approaches from
the west. Looking at the GFS model soundings for Sunday
afternoon, we could see 30-40 mph gusts across Lake Champlain
with 15-25 mph gusts elsewhere.
Rainfall associated with the front on Sunday should exit the region
by sunrise Monday morning with another high pressure system expected
to quickly build across the North Country. The air mass behind this
cold front looks cooler than the one on Friday and temperatures on
both Monday and Tuesday appear to only warm into the low to mid 60s.
Monday night will be something to watch as we could see temps drop
into the low to mid 30s across the Northern Adirondacks and
northeastern Vermont. Areas of frost and a possibility of a freeze
will be possible but there will be plenty of time to see how this
air mass evolves as it approaches the North Country. Temperatures
will then warm back to seasonal normals for Wednesday as we start to
see return flow across the region.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...A complex forecast over the next 24 hours
in regard to cigs with stationary front lingering across the
area. Generally MVFR cigs are expected through 12Z for all
terminals except for KRUT and KMPV where IFR/LIFR in low
stratus and/or fog will be more prevalent. A few showers may
skirt northern terminals but mainly dry wx is expected. After
12Z MVFR/IFR lifts to a mix of VFR/MVFR with a few showers
possible at KSLK/KPBG and KBTV in the 18-00Z time frame. After
00Z cigs a mix of VFR/MVFR or IFR should be the rule, depending
on terminal. IFR should be most prevalent at KSLK. Winds light
and variable or light northerly less than 10 kts through the
period.
Outlook...
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...Clay
LONG TERM...Clay
AVIATION...JMG
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