Expires:202009092000;;542908
FPUS51 KBTV 090648
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
245 AM EDT Wed Sep 9 2020


VTZ006-092000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
245 AM EDT Wed Sep 9 2020

.TODAY...Partly sunny. Patchy dense fog this morning. A slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Highs in the
upper 70s. Light and variable winds. Chance of rain 20 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms until midnight. Lows in the upper 50s. Light and
variable winds, becoming southwest around 10 mph after midnight.
Chance of rain 20 percent. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a slight chance of showers in the
morning, then mostly cloudy with a chance of showers in the
afternoon. Highs in the lower 70s. Southwest winds around 10 mph,
becoming west in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of
showers. Less humid with lows in the mid 40s. North winds around
10 mph. 
.FRIDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 60s. North winds around
10 mph. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the lower 40s. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s. 
.SUNDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the upper 60s. Chance of rain
70 percent. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the lower 50s. Chance of
rain 70 percent. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the lower 60s. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. 
.TUESDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 60s. 

$$


Expires:202009091100;;550700
ASUS41 KBTV 091030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT WED SEP 09 2020

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-091100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     PTCLDY    59  55  87 S3        30.23S                  
MONTPELIER     LGT RAIN  62  61  96 CALM      30.29R VSB 1/2          
MORRISVILLE    PTCLDY    56  54  93 CALM      30.25R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     59  55  87 MISG      30.24R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      56  55  95 CALM      30.28R                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    61  61 100 E5        30.28R FOG              
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    59  59 100 CALM      30.27S FOG              
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    57  54  90 CALM      30.25R                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      55  52  88 CALM      30.26S                  
BENNINGTON     PTCLDY    58  56  93 S3        30.26R                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     54 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     54 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     54 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     59  57  94 W2          N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     61  57  88 W1          N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     61  59  94 SE2         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;542846
FXUS61 KBTV 090645
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
245 AM EDT Wed Sep 9 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front will remain draped across northern counties 
through tonight with a few showers possible. The front and 
scattered showers will finally push south of the area later 
Thursday into Thursday night with slightly cooler air arriving 
for Friday into Saturday. The only chance of more significant, 
widespread rainfall occurs on Sunday when another surface front 
pushes through the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 245 AM EDT Wednesday...Mainly a cloud and temperature 
forecast challenge for the next 24 hours as a semi-stationary 
front remains draped across northern counties/intl. border. 
Decent baroclinicity exists across the boundary with cooler 
highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s far north/northwest and milder
upper 70s to lower 80s expected today. That said, dynamical 
upper support remains rather weak so probabilities of more 
widespread, organized rainfall will be limited. Both global and 
hi-res models do continue to show some slight moisture pooling 
interacting with marginal instability in the boundary layer 
along and just south of the front from the Adirondacks northeast
into portions of northwestern VT by mid to late afternoon. As 
such I've maintained chance level PoPs in these areas for 
scattered showers and perhaps a non-severe storm or two 
generally in the 2 to 7 pm time frame.

Variable clouds then continue tonight, especially north in proximity 
to the boundary, which will likely bleed south through the Champlain 
Valley once again owing to weak pressure-driven channeling effects. 
Mainly dry weather continues with perhaps a few passing light 
showers along the international border. Low temperatures in the 50s 
to around 60. 

The front finally begins to shift south by Thursday afternoon in 
response to a longwave trough passing off to our north through 
southern and central Canada. Dynamical forcing remains rather 
unimpressive and given a lack of sfc-based instability only chance 
PoPs for scattered showers will be offered with QPF totals mainly 
under a quarter inch. High temperatures again reflect expected 
position of the boundary by mid-afternoon with cooler values (mid 
60s to lower 70s) far north, and upper 70s to lower 80s 
central/south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 AM EDT Wednesday...The quasi-stationary cold front 
will finally push through the North Country through the 
overnight hours Thursday night into Friday morning. A few rain 
showers along the frontal boundary will be possible but moisture
will be waning quickly so the overall coverage should be pretty
minimal. High pressure will build into the North Country during
the day on Friday with a noticeably colder air mass descending 
across the region. Temperatures on Friday will struggle to warm 
into the lower to upper 60s under mostly clear skies and light 
winds. Friday night continues to look like one of the colder 
nights as of late with widespread temps in the 40s with a few 
locations in the northern Adirondacks and northeaster Vermont 
dropping into the mid to upper 30s. It wouldn't be surprising to
see a few patches of frost in the coldest locations but a 
widespread frost is not anticipated at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 245 AM EDT Wednesday...Surface high pressure will crest 
across the North Country during the day on Saturday. Forecast 
soundings continue to show a plethora of dry air associated with
this high pressure which makes it hard to think there will be 
much, if any, cloud cover during the day on Saturday. 
Temperatures will be 5-8 degrees warmer on Saturday compared to 
Friday with afternoon highs warming into the upper 60s to mid 
70s. Cloud cover will quickly stream back into the region 
Saturday night ahead of an amplifying trough across the Midwest.
A potent upper level shortwave will help the development of a 
surface low across the Great Lakes early Sunday morning which 
will help drive a cold front through the region Sunday morning 
through Sunday afternoon. Both deterministic and ensemble 
guidance remains in very good agreement with this scenario and 
with the increased confidence, we have increased PoPs to 60-70% 
during the day on Sunday. In addition to the rainfall, strong 
gradient winds are expected to develop ahead of the front as the
high pressure departs to the east and the front approaches from
the west. Looking at the GFS model soundings for Sunday 
afternoon, we could see 30-40 mph gusts across Lake Champlain 
with 15-25 mph gusts elsewhere.

Rainfall associated with the front on Sunday should exit the region
by sunrise Monday morning with another high pressure system expected
to quickly build across the North Country. The air mass behind this
cold front looks cooler than the one on Friday and temperatures on
both Monday and Tuesday appear to only warm into the low to mid 60s.
Monday night will be something to watch as we could see temps drop
into the low to mid 30s across the Northern Adirondacks and
northeastern Vermont. Areas of frost and a possibility of a freeze
will be possible but there will be plenty of time to see how this
air mass evolves as it approaches the North Country. Temperatures
will then warm back to seasonal normals for Wednesday as we start to
see return flow across the region.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...A complex forecast over the next 24 hours
in regard to cigs with stationary front lingering across the
area. Generally MVFR cigs are expected through 12Z for all 
terminals except for KRUT and KMPV where IFR/LIFR in low 
stratus and/or fog will be more prevalent. A few showers may 
skirt northern terminals but mainly dry wx is expected. After 
12Z MVFR/IFR lifts to a mix of VFR/MVFR with a few showers 
possible at KSLK/KPBG and KBTV in the 18-00Z time frame. After 
00Z cigs a mix of VFR/MVFR or IFR should be the rule, depending
on terminal. IFR should be most prevalent at KSLK. Winds light 
and variable or light northerly less than 10 kts through the 
period.

Outlook...

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...Clay
LONG TERM...Clay
AVIATION...JMG

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