Expires:202306261500;;778745
FPUS51 KBTV 260734
ZFPBTV
Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
331 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023
VTZ018-261500-
Eastern Addison-
Including the cities of Bristol and Ripton
331 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023
.TODAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of thunderstorms. A chance
of showers this morning, then showers this afternoon. Some
thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall. Highs in the mid 70s.
Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.
.TONIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Showers likely with a slight chance of
thunderstorms until midnight, then a chance of showers and
thunderstorms after midnight. Some thunderstorms may produce
heavy rainfall after midnight. Humid with lows in the mid 60s.
Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
.TUESDAY...Showers with a chance of thunderstorms. Some
thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall. Humid with highs in the
mid 70s. South winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Showers with a chance of thunderstorms. Lows in
the lower 60s. South winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain
90 percent.
.WEDNESDAY...Showers with a chance of thunderstorms. Humid with
highs in the mid 70s. South winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain
90 percent.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Showers with a chance of thunderstorms. Lows
around 60. Chance of rain 90 percent.
.THURSDAY...Showers likely. Highs around 70. Chance of rain
70 percent.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the upper 50s.
.FRIDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the lower 70s. Chance of rain
70 percent.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the upper 50s.
.SATURDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the mid 70s. Chance of rain
70 percent.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the lower 60s.
.SUNDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the lower 70s. Chance of rain
70 percent.
$$
Expires:202306261100;;786843
ASUS41 KBTV 261030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT MON JUN 26 2023
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.
VTZ001>019-261100-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON CLOUDY 69 66 90 S3 29.77S FOG TC 21
MONTPELIER MOCLDY 67 64 90 S3 29.86S TC 19
MORRISVILLE FOG 67 65 93 S3 29.80S VSB 1/2 TC 19
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 68 66 93 MISG 29.80S TC 20
LYNDONVILLE* FOG 66 65 96 CALM 29.85S VSB<1/4 TC 19
MIDDLEBURY* FOG 65 65 100 CALM 29.78F VSB<1/4 TC 18
RUTLAND* MOCLDY 67 67 100 SE10 29.80S TC 19
SPRINGFIELD CLOUDY 68 66 93 CALM 29.82S TC 20
HIGHGATE* N/A N/A N/A N/A MISG N/A
NEWPORT* FOG 66 65 99 CALM 29.83S VSB 1/2 TC 19
BENNINGTON PTCLDY 65 63 93 SE3 29.79S TC 18
ISLAND POND* N/A 66 N/A N/A NE1 N/A TC 19
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 63 N/A N/A MISG N/A TC 17
LAKE EDEN* N/A 66 N/A N/A CALM N/A TC 19
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 61 N/A N/A E18 N/A TC 16
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND* N/A 68 66 94 S5 N/A TC 20
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 68 64 88 S10 N/A TC 20
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 66 64 94 SE6 N/A TC 19
$$
Expires:No;;782435
FXUS61 KBTV 260839
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
439 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected through at least Wednesday.
With heavy rain expected with these thunderstorms, we will need to
monitor the potential for localized flooding as many places have
seen decent rainfall over the past 72 hours. As for the smoke, this
will be lifting north through the morning hours with air quality and
visibilities improving throughout the morning.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 342 AM EDT Monday...Smoke remains prevalent across northern New
York and the northern half of Vermont this morning. Winds both aloft
and at the surface are just beginning to switch to the south which
should help displace the smoke to the north and out of the North
Country. However, smoke will likely remain in place through at least
8 AM and could linger as late as noon given the latest guidance.
Reduced visibilities and unhealthy air will continue to accompany
this smoke so those who are sensitive are encouraged to stay indoors
until conditions improve later this morning. Meanwhile, we are
seeing showers and thunderstorms blossom across portions of Vermont
and New York this morning as a front lifts north. Some moderate rain
is being reported with these showers but they are moving north at
close to 20 mph. This is limiting rainfall totals to less than two
tenths of an inch but continues to gradually add to the rainfall
totals seen over the past 72 hours.
A lull in precipitation is expected following sunrise this morning
before widespread showers and thunderstorms develop across the North
Country. Forecast soundings this morning show we could achieve
upwards of 1500 J/kg of CAPE and 20 knots of 0-6 km shear between
18Z and 00Z which could support some organization to the storms this
afternoon. When you couple the aforementioned thermodynamics and
kinematics with large scale ascent in the form of upper level
diffluence you set the stage for some strong to possibly even
locally severe storms this afternoon. We will need to continue to
monitor hydrology this afternoon as we have seen many 1-3 inch
bullseyes of rain over the past several days. Should a strong
thunderstorm drop heavy rain in already saturated conditions, we
could see some localized flooding issues. Thunderstorm activity is
expected to wane tonight but the latest HRRR and RAP show some
elevated instability through the overnight hours which could lead to
continued thunderstorm activity.
Tuesday is looking like it'll be quite the wet day as we will see
better jet dynamics, better upper level support, better
thermodynamics, and better shear. Oh my! In all seriousness,
widespread showers and thunderstorms will be hard to escape,
especially during the afternoon and evening hours, given the
favorable set up for convective storms. The potential for strong to
locally severe storms cannot be ruled out but the lack of surface
convergence should prevent widespread strong to severe storms.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 415 AM EDT Monday...More of the same for Tuesday night and
Wednesday as upper level trough along with surface low and
associated fronts drifts across our region. Showers with
afternoon thunderstorms are anticipated, with moderate rain on
Wednesday as well as storms will be quite slow moving.
Temperatures will be close to seasonal normals.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 430 AM EDT Monday...Aforementioned upper low/trough
remains in the picture through the end of the work week, moving
incredibly slow and nearly atop the region through at least
Friday. With modest upper support and an anomalously moist
airmass in place (PWATS averaging around 1.5") a daily threat of
scattered to numerous showers and a few storms will remain
possible for these periods. Activity will be most focused
during the afternoon/early evening hours when locally heavy
downpours will be possible. Temperatures to show little change
through the period with daily highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s
and overnight lows from the upper 50s to mid 60s. Still looks
hopefully for this pattern to break down as we head into the
weekend. However, another upper trough feature looks to settle
in from the west/northwest fairly quickly by Sunday, so chances
for showers continue through the period.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...Smoke remains the main concern early this
morning with all northern terminals seeing vsbys between 2 and 3
SM. These lower vsbys will likely continue through 12Z before
smoke lifts north back into Canada between 14Z and 16Z. A few
showers and thunderstorms remain possible through the pre-dawn
hours but will be isolated enough to not mention any prevailing
shra or tsra in the current TAF package. More widespread shower
and thunderstorm activity is anticipated by 16Z with many
terminals likely to experience showers and thunderstorms. Heavy
rainfall with these storms will likely bring brief IFR
conditions to some terminals and as we get a better idea on
timing this morning we will begin to introduce some TEMPO groups
into the TAFs.
Outlook...
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Definite SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Friday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance
TSRA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
More widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon and evening across the North Country. Given an
anomalously moist airmass currently in place, heavy rainfall is
expected with these storms as seen in previous days. Some places
have seen 1-3 inches of rain from heavier storms in recent days
and should some of these thunderstorms move over our climate
sites, records may be broken not only today but also in coming
days.
Precip Records
Date KBTV KMPV KMSS KPBG KSLK
06-26 1.90|2006 2.31|2006 1.20|1983 0.99|1955 1.42|1958
06-27 1.45|1970 0.75|2002 1.04|1970 1.45|1970 1.86|2002
06-28 1.50|1892 1.57|2010 1.32|2010 1.23|2016 2.12|1994
06-29 1.79|2017 2.43|1982 1.90|2017 1.83|2017 2.19|2017
06-30 1.75|1973 3.33|1973 0.80|1958 1.65|1973 1.50|1998
07-01 2.54|1998 1.35|2017 0.88|2017 1.28|1976 1.82|1968
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Clay
NEAR TERM...Clay
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Clay
CLIMATE...Clay
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