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October 2002, Week 2

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Subject:
From:
Wesley's Ski Hut <[log in to unmask]>
Reply To:
Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>
Date:
Fri, 11 Oct 2002 06:50:04 -0400
Content-Type:
text/plain
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text/plain (289 lines)
Expires:200210112000;;601991
FPUS51 KBTV 110730
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
330 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2002


VTZ003-004-006>008-112000-
CALEDONIA VT-ESSEX VT-LAMOILLE VT-ORLEANS VT-WASHINGTON VT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ISLAND POND VT...MONTPELIER VT...
NEWPORT VT...ST. JOHNSBURY VT...STOWE VT
330 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2002

.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGH NEAR 60. SOUTH WIND 5 TO 10 MPH.
.TONIGHT...PATCHY FOG WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE. LOW IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH AROUND 60.
SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN LIKELY IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN LIKELY. LOW IN THE LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF RAIN 60
PERCENT.
.COLUMBUS DAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOLER. HIGH IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE LOWER 30S AND HIGH IN THE UPPER
40S.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. LOW IN THE MID 30S
AND HIGH IN THE UPPER 40S.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE MID 30S AND HIGH IN THE UPPER
40S.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 110547
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
147 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2002

CURRENTLY...MARINE AIR...ENTRENCHED OVER MOST OF CWA EXCEPT FAR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE SOME BREAKS NOTED IN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
SOME WEAK OVERRUNNING NOTED ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...WITH SPOTTY
-RA/DZ ONGOING AT THIS TIME. IN FACT KRUT APPROACHING A TENTH OF AN
INCH. "KYLE" REFUSES TO GO AWAY...AND IN FACT DEEP CONVECTION HAS
ERUPTED OVER SYSTEM THIS EVENING. APPEARS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL PLAY
A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN AREA WEATHER OVER NEXT FEW DAYS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES.

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...REMNANTS OF "KYLE" LIFT FAIRLY QUICKLY TO
THE NE DURING PERIOD...AND SYSTEM BECOMES TRAPPED UNDER LARGE 1035
HPA ANTICYCLONE OFF NOVA SCOTIA.  AS A RESULT...PGF TIGHTENS AND
GENERAL EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW SETS UP.  APPEARS AS IF HIGH IS FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW AND SOME MOISTURE TO GET AT
LEAST INTO SOUTHERN ZONES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT
IS SHOWING 305-310K OVERRUNNING TO VARYING DEGREES DURING PERIOD.
WILL THUS INTRODUCE POPS AND TAPER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...WITH
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ZONES WESTWARD REMAINING DRY.

SUNDAY...GUIDANCE BECOMES DIVERGENT ON APPROACHING SHARP 500 HPA
TROUGH LATE SUNDAY...WITH NEW GFS RUNS INDICATING TROF CLOSES OFF
OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO...AND BLOCKING MARITIME HIGH SHUNTS MOST OF
ENERGY TO THE NORTH OF REGION. IN FACT...IF THIS SCENARIO PANS
OUT...CHAMPLAIN VALLEY LEFT IN BETWEEN DYNAMICS OF BOTH STALLED
COASTAL SYSTEM...AND ONTARIO SYSTEM...WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIP. ETA
SUITES CONTINUE IDEA OF PROGRESSIVE AND STRONGER SYSTEM. DUE TO
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY...WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS ALL
AREAS...AND NOT ATTEMPT TO GET TOO SPECIFIC.

AFTERWARDS...VERY COOL DAY IN TAP FOR MONDAY...WITH -7 TO -9C 850
HPA AIR OVER AREA. SOME MODIFICATION INTO MID-WEEK BUT REMAINING
SLIGHTLY COOL...WITH LATEST EXTENDED GUIDANCE SUGGESTING POSSIBLE
COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS AFFECTING AREA IN WED-THU TIME FRAME.

.BTV...NONE.

JMG







FXUS61 KBTV 110151
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
950 PM EDT THU OCT 10 2002

WILL UPDATE THE ZONE FORECASTS TO ADD A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT AS KPLB AND KSLK ALREADY REPORTING SOME FOG. ALSO...
TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREAD ACROSS THE FCST AREA FAIRLY CLOSE.
COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP ALSO SHOWING SOME SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE MOVG
INTO SOUTHERN VT ZONES AND TOWARD THE ADIRONDACKS AS WELL...SO WILL
ALSO ADD A MENTION OF DRIZZLE TO THESE AREAS AS WELL.

HAVE ALSO RAISED THE MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT IN SOME OF THE ZONES...AND
HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTEMENTS TO THE WINDS OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST.

.BTV...NONE.

WGH






FXUS61 KBTV 101807
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
207 PM EDT WED OCT 10 2002

PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS AFTERNOON...
MAINLY FROM SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA TO POINTS SOUTH. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AT THE MOMENT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  TROUGH IS NOT DIGGING SO DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF BACKING FLOW TO HELP PUSH THE DEEP MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION.  WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
EXISTS JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC...BUT FEEL
FORCING MECHANISMS WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE ANY
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT...SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST.  PLENTY
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EXIST TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS THERE WILL NOT BE ANY SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE.  AS A
RESULT...LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AT NIGHT
AND PARTLY SUNNY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE DAY AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW HAS A SOUTHEAST COMPONENT TO IT WHICH ALLOWS FOR ATLANTIC
MOISTURE TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS.  EXPECT THE SCENARIO ABOVE TO LAST THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.  DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 55 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE
WITH LOWS IN THE 45 TO 55 DEGREE RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE NEXT MAIN THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL
COME ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
PUSH INTO THE AREA.  MAIN TIME PERIOD WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY MORNING.  MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOME OF THE DEEPER
ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA MAY HELP TO SPREAD
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING.  BASED ON
THE CONTINUED IDEA OF THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH...WILL MENTION LIKELY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THIS EVENT.

COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST.  HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY SHOULD BE
THE COLDEST OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 40S TO
AROUND 50.  TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY REBOUND ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.  NEXT UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WANTS TO HAVE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD.  THIS WOULD BRING SOME RAIN
TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH COLDEST AIR AT THE SURFACE LAGGING
BACK ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.  850 MB TEMPERATURES COULD STILL BE
BELOW ZERO AT THAT POINT WHICH SUGGESTS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY
SEE SOME SNOW.  STILL TALKING ABOUT A WEEK AWAY FOR SUCH A SCENARIO
TO PLAY OUT...SO WILL JUST MENTION A CHANCE OF RAIN AT THIS POINT
FOR WEDNESDAY.  DRY WEATHER TO THEN RETURN FOR THURSDAY.

WORK ZONES IN ALBWRKCWF BY 300 PM.

EVENSON

.BTV...NONE.






   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

213
ASUS51 KBTV 111005
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2002

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-111100-
_____VERMONT_____

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    56  31  38 S8        30.35R
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    51  50  96 SE5       30.41R
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    53  51  93 CALM      30.38R
ST. JOHNSBURY    N/A     50  49  96 CALM      30.39R
RUTLAND        CLOUDY    52  48  87 SE7       30.38R
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    51  50  96 CALM      30.40S FOG
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    51  50  96 CALM      30.35S FOG
$$

______KEY______
VSB  - VISIBILITY IN MILES
WCI  - WIND CHILL INDEX
HX   - HEAT INDEX



                        LSC WEATHER CENTER FORECAST
               [1]Lyndon State College Meteorology Home Page
                     12:00PM, Thursday October 10, 2002
                    STUDENT METEOROLOGIST: Jill Gilardi
       ** The latest forecast for Northeast & North Central Vermont**
       ** The area bounded by Waterbury, St. Johnsbury, and Newport**

   Thursday: This afternoon mostly cloudy skies will dominate.
   Temperatures will rise to 55-60 degrees and winds will flow from the
   south at 5-10 mph.

   Thursday Night: A chance for a shower or sprinkles otherwise mostly
   cloudy. Temperatures will drop to 45-50 degrees and winds will
   diminish from the south.

   Friday: There will be intervals of sunshine along with a warm breeze
   from the south to help temperatures rise into the lower 60s.

   Friday Night: Partly cloudy and comfortable. Temperatures will settle
   back in the mid-upper 40s.

                             Extended Forecast

   Saturday: Partly sunny sky conditions and temperatures in the lower
   60s will be a perfect combination for those that are participating in
   sports or plan on enjoying the outdoors.

   Sunday: The end to the weekend will not be as good as the start.
   Increasing clouds and scattered showers will put a damper on some
   plans. Temperatures will feel a bit cooler with highs in the upper
   50s.

   Monday: Columbus Day will be partly sunny and chilly with highs in the
   lower 50s.

                            Forecast Discussion

   We are locked in the clouds today, but where is all the rain? The damp
   pattern around the United States has been focusing in the eastern
   Northern Plains, the Upper Mississippi Valley, and the Gulf Coast.
   Almost all the storm systems that dive into the United States have
   been affecting the central northwest leaving the Northeast mostly dry.
   Places in the south are also above average in rainfall because of
   tropical storms making landfall. More rain is falling along the
   Central Gulf Coast today and further inland as a result of a
   low-pressure system pulling moisture off the Gulf waters. The storm is
   going to track through the Tennessee Valley and into the Middle
   Atlantic but not far enough to the north to bring us rain. We had a
   chance of seeing rain yesterday but a front to our north lost a lot of
   moisture and was not able to sink towards the south. We will have to
   deal with the clouds for one more day until drier air gradually
   filters in for the beginning half of the weekend.

References

   1. http://apollo.lsc.vsc.edu/

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