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May 2004, Week 4

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From:
Wesley's Ski Hut <[log in to unmask]>
Reply To:
Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>
Date:
Thu, 27 May 2004 06:50:02 -0400
Content-Type:
text/plain
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text/plain (299 lines)
Expires:200405272220;;390492
FPUS51 KBTV 270800
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
400 AM EDT THU MAY 27 2004


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>018-272220-
CALEDONIA-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN FRANKLIN-ESSEX-
LAMOILLE-ORANGE-ORLEANS-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRISTOL...ISLAND POND...MONTPELIER...
NEWPORT...RANDOLPH...RICHFORD...ST. JOHNSBURY...STOWE...UNDERHILL
400 AM EDT THU MAY 27 2004

.TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 70. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 30
PERCENT.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN
THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS 65 TO 70. SOUTHWEST
WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS
15 TO 20 MPH...DECREASING TO AROUND 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS 15
TO 20 MPH.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 40.
.MEMORIAL DAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S.
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 270043
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
843 PM EDT WED MAY 26 2004

.UPDATE...
WK CDFNT APCHG ST LAW VLY WL BE MVG THRU FA OVRNGT.  BEST INSTABY S
OF FA WHERE LN OF TSTMS FM KBGM-KALB MVG EWD.  FTHR NWD...JUST SOME
SCT SHWRS MVG INTO ST LAW VLY WHICH WL MOV EWD ACRS REST OF FA THRU
ABT MIDNGT.  CLRG LN NOTED ON IR PIX APCHG YOW VLY AND THIS CLRG SHD
ADVANCE EWD ACRS FA FM W TO E AFT MIDNGT.  GOING FCST IN GOOD SHAPE
AND WL MAKE NO CHGS.  HWR...UPDATED GRIDS/AFM/PFM FOR SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS IN HRLY TEMPS AND SKY COVER.
&&

KJC

*** PREV DISCUSSION ***

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH JUST A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME SHOWERS
UPSTREAM ACROSS WESTERN NY STATE AND ONTARIO ATTM.  HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.

MODELS NOW FASTER IN BRINGING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE WITH THE GFS
MODEL FOR TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE
ALSO BOOSTED THE POPS UP TO LIKELY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BUT
MODELS NOW HAVE SKIES BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF THE EARLIER PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT...HAVE DROPPED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST...AS EARLY IN THE DAY PASSAGE WILL NOT ALLOW TIME FOR
SUFFICIENT HEATING TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE.

SKIES TO CLEAR OUT FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE 30S. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UP OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
PLENTY OF MIXING IN THE ATMOSPHERE...TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN MOST
PLACES FROM FALLING BELOW FREEZING. SO NOT LOOKING FOR ANY FROST OR
FREEZE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AT THIS TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...AS UPPER LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY KEEPS A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE REGION.
&&

.EXTENDED (SATURDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY)...
SFC RIDGE OVER FA SATURDAY NITE...W/ WINDS ON THE DECREASE AS SFC
LOW EXITS OFF INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. W/ LIGHT WINDS AND CLD
COVER OVER REGION SAT NITE/SUN MORN...COMBINED W/ COOLER CANADIAN
AIRMASS...TEMPS COULD BE LOW ENOUGH FOR POSSIBLE FROST IN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA. FA GETS RETURN FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF SFC RIDGE SUN NITE
INTO MON MORN...BRINGING MOISTER S FLOW INTO REGION. UPPER TROUGH
OVER NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS LIFTS NE...ALONG W/ ITS SFC
COMPONENT...INTO THE GREAT LKS REGION DURING THE DAY MON. SFC RIDGE
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN A BIT LATE MONDAY...ALLOWING FRONT ASSOCIATED
W/ SFC LOW TO BEGIN TO HEAD NE TOWARDS THE CWA. MDLS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT BRINGING FRONT ALONG SW BORDER ZONES BY 12Z TUES MORNING.
CURRENT ZONES HAVE PRECIP BEGINNING FROM THE SW SPREADING INTO REST
OF CWA DURING THE DAY TUES...W/ NE KINGDOM SEEING IT LAST. WILL
ADJUST PRECIP TIMING/ENTRY FOR TUES AND ADD SCT TSTORM W/ CURRENT
CHANCE FOR RAIN. MEANDERING FRONT OVER CWA WILL ALLOW PRECIP TO
LINGER INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WILL ALSO TWEAK CLD COVER...BUT NO
OTHER CHANGES PLANNED FOR REST OF EXTENDED.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...JN






FXUS61 KBTV 262056
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
456 PM EDT WED MAY 26 2004

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH JUST A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME SHOWERS
UPSTREAM ACROSS WESTERN NY STATE AND ONTARIO ATTM.  HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.

MODELS NOW FASTER IN BRINGING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE WITH THE GFS
MODEL FOR TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE
ALSO BOOSTED THE POPS UP TO LIKELY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BUT
MODELS NOW HAVE SKIES BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF THE EARLIER PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT...HAVE DROPPED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST...AS EARLY IN THE DAY PASSAGE WILL NOT ALLOW TIME FOR
SUFFICIENT HEATING TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE.

SKIES TO CLEAR OUT FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE 30S. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UP OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
PLENTY OF MIXING IN THE ATMOSPHERE...TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN MOST
PLACES FROM FALLING BELOW FREEZING. SO NOT LOOKING FOR ANY FROST OR
FREEZE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AT THIS TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...AS UPPER LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY KEEPS A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE REGION.
&&

.EXTENDED (SATURDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY)...
SFC RIDGE OVER FA SATURDAY NITE...W/ WINDS ON THE DECREASE AS SFC
LOW EXITS OFF INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. W/ LIGHT WINDS AND CLD
COVER OVER REGION SAT NITE/SUN MORN...COMBINED W/ COOLER CANADIAN
AIRMASS...TEMPS COULD BE LOW ENOUGH FOR POSSIBLE FROST IN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA. FA GETS RETURN FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF SFC RIDGE SUN NITE
INTO MON MORN...BRINGING MOISTER S FLOW INTO REGION. UPPER TROUGH
OVER NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS LIFTS NE...ALONG W/ ITS SFC
COMPONENT...INTO THE GREAT LKS REGION DURING THE DAY MON. SFC RIDGE
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN A BIT LATE MONDAY...ALLOWING FRONT ASSOCIATED
W/ SFC LOW TO BEGIN TO HEAD NE TOWARDS THE CWA. MDLS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT BRINGING FRONT ALONG SW BORDER ZONES BY 12Z TUES MORNING.
CURRENT ZONES HAVE PRECIP BEGINNING FROM THE SW SPREADING INTO REST
OF CWA DURING THE DAY TUES...W/ NE KINGDOM SEEING IT LAST. WILL
ADJUST PRECIP TIMING/ENTRY FOR TUES AND ADD SCT TSTORM W/ CURRENT
CHANCE FOR RAIN. MEANDERING FRONT OVER CWA WILL ALLOW PRECIP TO
LINGER INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WILL ALSO TWEAK CLD COVER...BUT NO
OTHER CHANGES PLANNED FOR REST OF EXTENDED.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM/AVIATION...JN















































   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

222
ASUS51 KBTV 271010
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT THU MAY 27 2004

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-271100-
_____VERMONT_____


CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLEAR     48  48 100 CALM      29.74R FOG
MONTPELIER     FOG       50  49  96 CALM      29.79S VSB 1/4
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    51  51 100 VRB3      29.77S FOG
ST. JOHNSBURY    N/A     50  49  96 CALM      29.75S
RUTLAND        CLOUDY    48  48 100 SE3       29.76R
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    52  52 100 CALM      29.75F FOG
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    56  55  97 CALM      29.74S



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