Expires:202103122100;;852826
FPUS51 KBTV 121144
ZFPBTV
Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
640 AM EST Fri Mar 12 2021
VTZ018-122100-
Eastern Addison-
Including the cities of Bristol and Ripton
640 AM EST Fri Mar 12 2021
.TODAY...Sunny, breezy with highs in the mid 40s. West winds
15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.
.TONIGHT...Cloudy with a chance of snow showers until midnight,
then partly cloudy with a slight chance of snow showers after
midnight. Snow accumulation up to 1 inch possible. Windy with
lows around 16. Northwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to
45 mph. Chance of snow 30 percent.
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny and breezy. Highs in the lower 30s.
Northwest winds 15 to 25 mph.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow
showers. Little or no snow accumulation. Breezy with lows in the
lower 20s. West winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow showers.
Light snow accumulation possible. Very windy with highs around
30. Northwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy and very windy. Lows around
5 above.
.MONDAY...Mostly sunny and brisk. Highs 14 to 20.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows 5 to 10 above.
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 30s.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 20s.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Highs in the upper 30s.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 20s.
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 30s.
$$
Expires:202103121200;;852205
ASUS41 KBTV 121131
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST FRI MAR 12 2021
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.
VTZ001>019-121200-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON PTCLDY 43 26 51 W14 30.01R
MONTPELIER CLEAR 42 23 46 NW18G26 29.99R
MORRISVILLE CLEAR 42 25 50 W15G23 29.96R
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 44 24 45 MISG 29.90R
LYNDONVILLE* FAIR 39 26 58 SW17G29 29.92R WCI 30
MIDDLEBURY* FAIR 40 26 59 S3 30.03R
RUTLAND* CLEAR 45 26 47 W14G20 30.03R
SPRINGFIELD CLEAR 47 24 40 VRB7G29 29.98R
HIGHGATE* FAIR 38 25 58 SW7 29.98R
NEWPORT* FAIR 39 25 57 W13G28 29.94R WCI 31
BENNINGTON CLEAR 43 27 53 W7G16 30.08R
LAKE EDEN* N/A 37 N/A N/A SW7 N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 28 N/A N/A W47 N/A WCI 10
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND* N/A 41 30 65 SW9G18 N/A
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 43 30 61 W24 N/A
$$
Expires:No;;845476
FXUS61 KBTV 120856
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
356 AM EST Fri Mar 12 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
After the record highs of Thursday, temperatures will cool
somewhat today while remaining above seasonal averages for mid-
March. Plentiful sunshine is expected, along with moderate
westerly winds. A secondary cold front arrives this evening,
bringing scattered snow showers and possible snow squalls across
northern New York and Vermont. This secondary cold front will
usher in brisk conditions for the weekend right through Monday.
Temperatures will moderate back near or above seasonal levels
for the middle of next week. No significant precipitation is
forecast over the next 5 to 7 days.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 333 AM EST Friday...Initial sfc cold front has pushed
east of the CT River Valley early this morning. Steep low-level
lapse rates in post-frontal regime are maintaining moderate W-SW
winds of 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph...locally higher in
downslope locations east of the Adirondacks and Green Mtns.
Earlier tonight, the combination of evaporative cooling and
downsloping off the eastern slopes of the Adirondacks created
some locally strong wind gusts, including gusts to 41mph at PBG,
43mph at Essex, NY and 51kt out over the water at Colchester
Reef. We'll compile observed gusts and include in a Public
Information Statement a bit later this morning.
Low-level CAA is only modest today, and with full sunshine, will
see mid-day temperatures in the 45-50F range in most
locations. Temperatures begin slowly falling this afternoon as
next frontal wave approaches from sern Ontario. Associated
secondary cold front will be quick moving, generally traversing
the North Country between 00-03Z this evening. Continue to see
favorable conditions for rain/snow showers, and possible snow
squalls as the frontal boundary moves NW-SE across the North
COuntry. BTV Snow Squall Parameter values are nicely focused
along the front, aided by strong wind fields, and SBCAPE up to
120 J/kg in 00Z NAM forecast. Also noting that PW values are
near 0.25" with strong 925mb frontogenesis forcing, which are
favorable factors as well to support localized snow squall
activity across nrn NY and VT. Temperatures in valley locations
may initially be near 40F, so may see a mix with rain in lower
valleys at the onset of shower activity, before changing over to
snow. Some vsby reductions to 1/4SM will be possible 00-03Z in
heavier snow showers and squalls. Question will be how quickly
road surfaces can cool below freezing to potentially set up
flash freeze conditions. For the most part, in valley locations,
most surfaces should dry out before falling below freezing, but
higher elevation routes will have a better chance at icy conditions
developing as the front sweeps through. Will continue to monitor
thru the day and into this evening.
Should see some lingering upslope snow showers for a time
tonight. Strong nwly wind shift expected after 02-03Z, with
winds 15-25 mph with gusts 35-40 mph expected by 06Z across our
region. Strongest gusts should be east of the Adirondacks and
east facing slopes of the Green Mtns late tonight. Just below
Wind Advisory criteria based on current indications, but day
shift can take another look. Total snowfall tonight a dusting to
0.5" in the valleys, and 1-3" across the higher terrain,
especially for the central/nrn Green Mtns with favorable
orographics. Overnight lows will fall into the teens to lower
20s with strong low-level CAA during the pre-dawn hours.
Saturday will feature NW winds of 10-20 mph, with developing
sunshine. Stayed close to MOS consensus on highs...generally
low-mid 30s, but likely remaining in the upper 20s across the
northern Adirondacks.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 333 AM EST Friday...Transitioning into Saturday night, we will
see a cold front sweep southeastwards across the region as a lobe of
vorticity advects across the region. Good low-level convergence
along with a suitable amount of moisture should promote snow showers
overnight, especially across higher terrain of the northern Greens.
Activity should wane as the front progresses southwards. However, by
afternoon, temperatures climb into the 30s and diurnally driven
instability should allow for another round of scattered snow
showers, which will be well-timed with the base of the upper trough
pivoting southeastwards during the day. Outside of some of the
convective snow showers, we should see increasing gustiness during
the afternoon as pressure gradients tighten and we begin to mix in
some faster winds aloft. Expect some 25 to 35 mph gusts by Sunday
afternoon.
As we head towards the overnight hours on Sunday, atmospheric
moisture declines and instability begins to wane. Snow showers will
begin to taper off, exiting the Northeast Kingdom last. Isobars
remain tightly packed, which should keep winds elevated overnight
out of the northwest. We will get a glancing blow from a late season
polar intrusion, dropping 925 hPa temps down towards -20 C.
Overnight lows in the single digits expected Sunday night and into
Monday.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 333 AM EST Friday...A cold day expected on Monday as a polar
surface high nudges into the North Country. Afternoon temperatures
will struggle to climb above 20 F with highs settling in the teens
to mid 20s. Surface winds should abate throughout the day, which
should take the edge off the cold later in the afternoon. Dry
conditions expected.
The remainder of the forecast remains uncertain as an upper closed
low over the Rockies opens into a trough, and then shifts east. The
EC ties up the system with yet another upper low and leaves
precipitation out of our forecast area until late in the week. The
GFS allows the system to escape the clutches of the second upper low
and produce precipitation across our forecast area Tuesday night
into Wednesday. At this time, the GFS appears to be in the minority,
but have left in some slight chance PoPs. Assuming a slower
solution, the EC/CMC/ICON are in agreement for the 00Z run that
precipitation should hold off until late next week, run-to-run
consistency has been poor. With our recent dry spell without major
systems, decided to minimize PoPs, but leave in some as we approach
the next weekend. We will at least see temperatures moderate towards
seasonal norms with 30s to 40s for forecast highs for next week and
lows in the teens to 20s.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12Z Saturday...Frontal passage early this morning
bringing areas of LLWS to the TAF sites, and locally gusty
westerly winds (gusts 25-35kt) thru 08Z, Associated rain showers
are generally diminishing, so vsby should be unrestricted
throughout this morning with VFR conditions. Winds remaining
W-SW during the daylight hours at moderate speeds (12-15kt
sustained, with gusts up to 25kt). A secondary cold front brings
subfreezing air for Friday evening and potential for snow
showers and possible snow squalls 23-03Z time frame. Included
1-2SM -SHSN in the TAFs attm based on best timing. Some NW gusts
to 35kt possible from the northwest late in the TAF period with
passage of this secondary front.
Outlook...
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHSN.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Haynes
AVIATION...Banacos
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