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August 2018, Week 1

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Sat, 4 Aug 2018 06:50:02 -0400
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Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>
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Expires:201808042000;;523632
FPUS51 KBTV 040757
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
354 AM EDT Sat Aug 4 2018


VTZ006-042000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
354 AM EDT Sat Aug 4 2018

.TODAY...Cloudy this morning, then becoming partly sunny. A chance
of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs around 80.
Light and variable winds. Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Mostly clear. A slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms until midnight. Patchy dense fog after midnight. Lows
in the lower 60s. Light and variable winds. Chance of rain
20 percent. 
.SUNDAY...Patchy dense fog in the morning. Mostly sunny. Highs in
the mid 80s. Light and variable winds. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 60s. Light and
variable winds. 
.MONDAY...Mostly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs in
the upper 80s. Southwest winds around 10 mph. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of showers. Lows in the
upper 60s. Chance of rain 30 percent. 
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Highs in the upper 80s. Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of showers. Lows in the
mid 60s. Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the
lower 80s. Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 60s. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 60. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs
around 80. 

$$


Expires:201808041100;;530271
ASUS41 KBTV 041030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SAT AUG 04 2018

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-041100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     LGT RAIN  71  68  90 CALM      30.08R                  
MONTPELIER     LGT RAIN  67  66  97 E5        30.14R                  
MORRISVILLE    LGT RAIN  67  67 100 CALM      30.10R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     66  66 100 MISG      30.08F                  
LYNDONVILLE*   LGT RAIN  66  65  97 CALM      30.12F                  
MIDDLEBURY*    LGT RAIN  67  67  99 CALM      30.09S                  
RUTLAND*       LGT RAIN  66  66 100 SW6       30.09F FOG              
SPRINGFIELD    RAIN      69  69 100 W6        30.10R FOG              
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      68  68 100 CALM      30.08R FOG              
NEWPORT*       LGT RAIN  65  65 100 CALM      30.12R                  
BENNINGTON     LGT RAIN  70  68  93 CALM      30.09R                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     64 N/A N/A E2          N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     63 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     70 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     59 N/A N/A NE9         N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     72  70  94 S8          N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     72  70  94 S12         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     70  72 100 SW6         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;523648
FXUS61 KBTV 040757
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
357 AM EDT Sat Aug 4 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers will move from southwest to northeast across much of 
the North Country through the rest of the night with the 
potential for heavy rainfall, mainly across central and southern
Vermont. The bulk of the rainfall will slide east Saturday 
morning with just a few linger showers or thunderstorms in the 
afternoon. Warm and humid conditions will continue on Saturday 
with the potential for a heat wave looming to start the work 
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 346 AM EDT Saturday...Latest radar trends show a band of 
moderate to heavy rainfall across central and southern Vermont. 
We are still currently monitoring for flood potential but 
rainfall rates for the moment are low enough that areas should 
be able to handle the rainfall. We're still currently on track 
to see generally a half to two inches of rain generally across 
central and southern Vermont. Further north and west the 
gradient will be quite sharp as we've only seen 0.03" inches of 
rainfall thus far and generally expect between a few hundreths
to as much as 0.25".

The upper level trough continues to push to the east and we'll 
quickly see the rainfall come to an end mid morning. Based on 
the latest satellite images, the upper level PV anomaly off the 
Mid-Atlantic has stayed slightly further east than originally 
anticipated so that should mean that we dont see the second wave
of rainfall that the NAM12 and NAM3 were initially hinting at 
yesterday.

Unfortunately warm and humid conditions will continue across 
the region as temps this afternoon creep into the upper 70s to 
mid 80s. With dew points still in the mid 60s which is between 
5-8 degrees our typical normal low temperature it will feel 
quite muggy.

As high pressure builds in this evening we should return to a 
slightly quieter period this evening. Mostly clear skies will 
combine with light winds to allow for some radiational cooling 
in some areas. This should lead to some patchy fog developing 
across most of the protected river valleys. Expect lows in the 
60s with temps near 70 at locations near Lake Champlain. In the 
colder hollows we can anticipate temps likely cooling into the 
upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 346 AM EDT Saturday...High pressure builds in and we'll 
in store for another round of hot and humid conditions. Temps 
will warm into the upper 80s to the low 90s for day time highs 
so we'll be looking at the potential for another 2018 heat wave.
Without a significant change in airmass its easy to see dew 
points still in the mid to upper 60s both Sunday and Monday. So 
the combination of temps in the upper 80s to low 90s and 
dewpoints in the upper 60s means we'll likely see some heat 
index values creeping into the low to mid 90s. Given the heat 
advisory criteria of 3 hours of 95+, we will likely need an 
advisory for at least Monday and we'll continue to monitor for 
the potential tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 357 AM EDT Saturday...Things look to stay fairly 
unsettled through the end of next week. The best chances for 
rain will be on Tuesday into Wednesday with a cold frontal 
passage. The GFS is the most progressive with this boundary, 
bringing it across our region Tuesday into Tuesday night, while 
the ECMWF and CMC are slower, with the front not clearing the 
North Country until Wednesday afternoon. Have stayed with chance
PoPs for this timeframe due to the model differences. Depending
on exact timing of the frontal passage, thunderstorms will be 
possible, especially if it occurs during the afternoon. We look 
to remain under mainly zonal flow thereafter, with shortwaves 
traversing across the area. This will keep the threat of showers
and/or thunderstorms around through the end of the week, though
don't expect any one day to be a washout. We will start out the
period quite warm out ahead of the cold front, with highs in 
the mid 80s to lower 90s. There will be a bit of relief once the
front passes (whether it's Tuesday or Wednesday), bringing 
daytime temperatures back closer to normal. However, overnight 
lows will remain on the mild side, mainly in the 60s to around 
70. 

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...Expect periods of MVFR across the 
Champlain Valley and eastward as moderate to heavy rainfall 
continues through the morning. At SLK there's some potential for 
MVFR as some light ground fog is possible before daybreak. I've 
tempo'd in some IFR as some of the heavier showers at MPV and
RUT could bring visibilities down below 2 miles and briefly 
lowered ceilings. By mid afternoon expect conditions to improve 
to VFR and continue VFR into the evening hours as clouds should
begin to scatter out across southern Vermont. Late this evening
anticipate some fog potentially building in bringing IFR to MPV
and SLK.


Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance TSRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 358 AM EDT Friday...A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect
for Rutland and Windsor Counties through noon on Saturday.
Portions across Rutland and Windsor have already picked up
between 0.5 to 1 inch already and could see as much as another 1
to 2 inches of basin- average QPF. 1 hour flash flood guidance 
is running in the 1.5 to 2.0 inch range in this area, which 
seems reasonable given recent heavy rainfall over the past week.
Indeed antecedent soil moisture conditions are quite wet as 
USGS streamflow and SPORT RSM analysis indicate, especially 
across the southern portions of these two counties. Further 
north, while locally heavy downpours are expected antecedent 
conditions in general are drier and as such will be able to 
handle our current rainfall forecast.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Flash Flood Watch until noon EDT today for VTZ011-012-019.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Deal
NEAR TERM...Deal
SHORT TERM...Deal
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Clay
HYDROLOGY...Evenson/JMG

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