Expires:201808042000;;523632
FPUS51 KBTV 040757
ZFPBTV
Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
354 AM EDT Sat Aug 4 2018
VTZ006-042000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
354 AM EDT Sat Aug 4 2018
.TODAY...Cloudy this morning, then becoming partly sunny. A chance
of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs around 80.
Light and variable winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.
.TONIGHT...Mostly clear. A slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms until midnight. Patchy dense fog after midnight. Lows
in the lower 60s. Light and variable winds. Chance of rain
20 percent.
.SUNDAY...Patchy dense fog in the morning. Mostly sunny. Highs in
the mid 80s. Light and variable winds.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 60s. Light and
variable winds.
.MONDAY...Mostly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs in
the upper 80s. Southwest winds around 10 mph.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of showers. Lows in the
upper 60s. Chance of rain 30 percent.
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Highs in the upper 80s. Chance of rain 50 percent.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of showers. Lows in the
mid 60s. Chance of rain 50 percent.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the
lower 80s. Chance of rain 50 percent.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 60s.
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 60.
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs
around 80.
$$
Expires:201808041100;;530271
ASUS41 KBTV 041030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SAT AUG 04 2018
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.
VTZ001>019-041100-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON LGT RAIN 71 68 90 CALM 30.08R
MONTPELIER LGT RAIN 67 66 97 E5 30.14R
MORRISVILLE LGT RAIN 67 67 100 CALM 30.10R
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 66 66 100 MISG 30.08F
LYNDONVILLE* LGT RAIN 66 65 97 CALM 30.12F
MIDDLEBURY* LGT RAIN 67 67 99 CALM 30.09S
RUTLAND* LGT RAIN 66 66 100 SW6 30.09F FOG
SPRINGFIELD RAIN 69 69 100 W6 30.10R FOG
HIGHGATE* FAIR 68 68 100 CALM 30.08R FOG
NEWPORT* LGT RAIN 65 65 100 CALM 30.12R
BENNINGTON LGT RAIN 70 68 93 CALM 30.09R
ISLAND POND* N/A 64 N/A N/A E2 N/A
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 63 N/A N/A MISG N/A
UNION VILLAGE* N/A 70 N/A N/A MISG N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 59 N/A N/A NE9 N/A
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND* N/A 72 70 94 S8 N/A
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 72 70 94 S12 N/A
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 70 72 100 SW6 N/A
$$
Expires:No;;523648
FXUS61 KBTV 040757
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
357 AM EDT Sat Aug 4 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
Showers will move from southwest to northeast across much of
the North Country through the rest of the night with the
potential for heavy rainfall, mainly across central and southern
Vermont. The bulk of the rainfall will slide east Saturday
morning with just a few linger showers or thunderstorms in the
afternoon. Warm and humid conditions will continue on Saturday
with the potential for a heat wave looming to start the work
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 346 AM EDT Saturday...Latest radar trends show a band of
moderate to heavy rainfall across central and southern Vermont.
We are still currently monitoring for flood potential but
rainfall rates for the moment are low enough that areas should
be able to handle the rainfall. We're still currently on track
to see generally a half to two inches of rain generally across
central and southern Vermont. Further north and west the
gradient will be quite sharp as we've only seen 0.03" inches of
rainfall thus far and generally expect between a few hundreths
to as much as 0.25".
The upper level trough continues to push to the east and we'll
quickly see the rainfall come to an end mid morning. Based on
the latest satellite images, the upper level PV anomaly off the
Mid-Atlantic has stayed slightly further east than originally
anticipated so that should mean that we dont see the second wave
of rainfall that the NAM12 and NAM3 were initially hinting at
yesterday.
Unfortunately warm and humid conditions will continue across
the region as temps this afternoon creep into the upper 70s to
mid 80s. With dew points still in the mid 60s which is between
5-8 degrees our typical normal low temperature it will feel
quite muggy.
As high pressure builds in this evening we should return to a
slightly quieter period this evening. Mostly clear skies will
combine with light winds to allow for some radiational cooling
in some areas. This should lead to some patchy fog developing
across most of the protected river valleys. Expect lows in the
60s with temps near 70 at locations near Lake Champlain. In the
colder hollows we can anticipate temps likely cooling into the
upper 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 346 AM EDT Saturday...High pressure builds in and we'll
in store for another round of hot and humid conditions. Temps
will warm into the upper 80s to the low 90s for day time highs
so we'll be looking at the potential for another 2018 heat wave.
Without a significant change in airmass its easy to see dew
points still in the mid to upper 60s both Sunday and Monday. So
the combination of temps in the upper 80s to low 90s and
dewpoints in the upper 60s means we'll likely see some heat
index values creeping into the low to mid 90s. Given the heat
advisory criteria of 3 hours of 95+, we will likely need an
advisory for at least Monday and we'll continue to monitor for
the potential tomorrow.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 357 AM EDT Saturday...Things look to stay fairly
unsettled through the end of next week. The best chances for
rain will be on Tuesday into Wednesday with a cold frontal
passage. The GFS is the most progressive with this boundary,
bringing it across our region Tuesday into Tuesday night, while
the ECMWF and CMC are slower, with the front not clearing the
North Country until Wednesday afternoon. Have stayed with chance
PoPs for this timeframe due to the model differences. Depending
on exact timing of the frontal passage, thunderstorms will be
possible, especially if it occurs during the afternoon. We look
to remain under mainly zonal flow thereafter, with shortwaves
traversing across the area. This will keep the threat of showers
and/or thunderstorms around through the end of the week, though
don't expect any one day to be a washout. We will start out the
period quite warm out ahead of the cold front, with highs in
the mid 80s to lower 90s. There will be a bit of relief once the
front passes (whether it's Tuesday or Wednesday), bringing
daytime temperatures back closer to normal. However, overnight
lows will remain on the mild side, mainly in the 60s to around
70.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...Expect periods of MVFR across the
Champlain Valley and eastward as moderate to heavy rainfall
continues through the morning. At SLK there's some potential for
MVFR as some light ground fog is possible before daybreak. I've
tempo'd in some IFR as some of the heavier showers at MPV and
RUT could bring visibilities down below 2 miles and briefly
lowered ceilings. By mid afternoon expect conditions to improve
to VFR and continue VFR into the evening hours as clouds should
begin to scatter out across southern Vermont. Late this evening
anticipate some fog potentially building in bringing IFR to MPV
and SLK.
Outlook...
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
As of 358 AM EDT Friday...A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect
for Rutland and Windsor Counties through noon on Saturday.
Portions across Rutland and Windsor have already picked up
between 0.5 to 1 inch already and could see as much as another 1
to 2 inches of basin- average QPF. 1 hour flash flood guidance
is running in the 1.5 to 2.0 inch range in this area, which
seems reasonable given recent heavy rainfall over the past week.
Indeed antecedent soil moisture conditions are quite wet as
USGS streamflow and SPORT RSM analysis indicate, especially
across the southern portions of these two counties. Further
north, while locally heavy downpours are expected antecedent
conditions in general are drier and as such will be able to
handle our current rainfall forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Flash Flood Watch until noon EDT today for VTZ011-012-019.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Deal
NEAR TERM...Deal
SHORT TERM...Deal
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Clay
HYDROLOGY...Evenson/JMG
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