Expires:202207192000;;506764
FPUS51 KBTV 190730
ZFPBTV
Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
326 AM EDT Tue Jul 19 2022
VTZ018-192000-
Eastern Addison-
Including the cities of Bristol and Ripton
326 AM EDT Tue Jul 19 2022
.TODAY...Partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon. Highs around 80. West winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of
rain 20 percent.
.TONIGHT...Mostly clear. Isolated showers and thunderstorms until
midnight. Humid with lows in the mid 60s. West winds 10 to
15 mph, becoming southwest after midnight. Chance of rain
20 percent.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms
in the afternoon. Humid with highs in the mid 80s. Light and
variable winds, becoming southwest around 10 mph in the
afternoon. Chance of rain 30 percent.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Humid with lows in the lower
70s. South winds around 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Showers with a chance of thunderstorms. Humid with
highs in the lower 80s. South winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to
25 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 60s.
.FRIDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 80s.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 60s.
.SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper
70s. Lows around 60.
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the mid
70s. Chance of rain 40 percent.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the upper 50s.
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the
upper 70s. Chance of rain 30 percent.
$$
Expires:202207191100;;514426
ASUS41 KBTV 191030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2022
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.
VTZ001>019-191100-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON MOCLDY 69 67 93 W5 29.65R
MONTPELIER PTCLDY 68 64 87 NW13 29.70R
MORRISVILLE CLOUDY 68 65 90 CALM 29.66R
LYNDONVILLE* CLOUDY 66 63 89 W8 29.66R
MIDDLEBURY* MOCLDY 66 66 100 E3 29.67S
RUTLAND* CLOUDY 68 68 100 NW5 29.69R
SPRINGFIELD MOCLDY 72 65 78 NW13G18 29.64R
HIGHGATE* FAIR 68 67 96 CALM 29.64S
NEWPORT* CLOUDY 67 64 91 NW8 29.65R
BENNINGTON CLOUDY 69 64 84 W8 29.72R
ISLAND POND* N/A 66 N/A N/A NW6 N/A
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 66 N/A N/A MISG N/A
LAKE EDEN* N/A 66 N/A N/A W1 N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 61 N/A N/A W29G49 N/A
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
$$
Expires:No;;510259
FXUS61 KBTV 190846
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
446 AM EDT Tue Jul 19 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be mainly dry outside of isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. Storms will be capable of strong winds and
small hail. Heat and humidity will be with us through the next
several days, peaking on Wednesday and Thursday when heat index
values will reach into the low 90s in many locations.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms will sweep eastward on
Thursday, followed by more chances of showers and thunderstorms over
the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 427 AM EDT Tuesday...
*Strong thunderstorms possible today*
*Hot and Humid conditions on Wednesday*
Active weather continues today with isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms. Good heating and associated dry adiabatic lapse rates
will eat away at the morning CIN, with CAPE growing into the 1000 to
2000 J/kg range and exist as a relative maximum across the
northeastern US. The latest SPC day 1 convective outlook shows a
marginal (level 1) risk of severe thunderstorms areawide in an
environment with effective shear in the 30 to 40 knot range. I
believe this coverage was expanded southward in deference to
somewhat varied CAM depiction of storm initiation. In today's
convection, uncertain mesoscale triggers, rather than a larger
synoptic scale forcing, will be capable of generating strong
updrafts out ahead of any more organized storms late in the day. The
potentially organized thunderstorms will be associated with a
strong low pressure system in northern Quebec, as it will be
dragging multiple boundaries southeastward. The first one may
trigger thunderstorms that move across northeastern Vermont,
where scattered thunderstorms are forecast for the early
afternoon. CAMs have somewhat varied ideas as to if
thunderstorms will be triggered due to differential heating
farther south during the afternoon. West/west-northwest flow
will also tend to advect somewhat drier air into the region.
Soundings show a vertical V shape that support potential
damaging wind and large hail threats for the strongest
thunderstorms that develop today.
The main focus for Wednesday will be increasing heat as weak upper
level ridging builds into the region, and the rising heights
will be accompanied by increasing temperatures. Current maximum
wet bulb global temperatures look to be in the extreme category
in the Champlain and Connecticut River Valleys due to hot and
humid conditions with light wind and abundant sunshine. Have
held off on a heat advisory with questions as to how high our
dew points will be, which as of now are not forecast to be high
enough to get heat index values into the 95 + range. Another
complicating factor is a lot of model guidance is suggesting
that showers and non-severe thunderstorms develop in the early
afternoon which could alleviate the heat somewhat. Not fully
buying a wide extent of thunderstorms, but the amount of
instability expected and low shear could result in pulse-type
thunderstorms once the cap is overcome.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 427 AM EDT Tuesday...
* Strong Thunderstorms Possible on Thursday *
It will be a muggy Wednesday night, especially if showers and
thunderstorms do not develop to cool things off. An influx of
deeper moisture in strong southerly low level flow will make it
hard for the temperature to fall much in advance of an
anomalously strong low pressure system. This system will
bring particularly strong wind fields aloft, setting the stage
for potential severe thunderstorms. In particular, the 700 and
850 millibar level southwesterly winds over our region will be
above the climatological 99th percentile Thursday, and that
means once again any strong updrafts in thunderstorms could
bring damaging winds to the surface in the form of a downburst.
The high dew point air and expected sunshine out ahead of a
ribbon of deeper moisture and linear convection will be
supportive of hot conditions again, although it currently looks
like the level of heat will be a bit below that of Wednesday.
Given that a series of pre-frontal troughs will be the forcing
for thunderstorms, have continued to have categorical chances of
precipitation throughout the day but for any given location
it will actually rain for only a short period of time.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 427 AM EDT Tuesday...Low pressure expected to exit the region
Thursday night with lingering showers mainly in northeastern
Vermont. Temperatures will trend slowly downward for Friday as upper
flow goes more zonal with the departing low pressure peeling
northwestward towards the Hudson Bay. This flow pattern will keep
more neutral thermal advection rather than scouring heat from the
North Country. Still, temperatures will marginally cooling into the
mid/upper 80s for Friday. More noticeably, will be the overnight
temperatures dropping back into the upper 50s to low 60s allowing
for cooler morning starts.
Temperatures trend back towards seasonal averages over the weekend
into early next week with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s as broad
cyclonic flow dips across the North Country. This will favor daily
chances of showers and potential for afternoon thunderstorms with
several waves moving along the southern rim of the cyclonic
curvature. Models differ vastly on timing of individual waves, so
kept a blanket slight chance to chance of showers mentioned through
Monday. Deterministic runs do hint at another more consolidated
front possibly moving through Monday or Tuesday which may become a
focus for stronger convection.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...A surface cold from is pushing northwest
to southeast at the initial hour of the forecast; currently draped
across the northern Champlain Valley. This front will continue
to bring periods of precipitation to Vermont terminals with some
more limited shower chances at PBG and SLK for the initial hour.
MVFR/IFR CIGs will linger with ample low level moisture despite
northwesterly, and relatively drier, flow. Where clouds do break
out, MVFR/IFR VIS will be a concern with mist/fog formation with
SLK, PBG, and MSS being the most likely terminals to experience
these conditions through around 10Z. CIGs begin to break in
earnest around 12Z with VFR and breezy westerly flow; gusts up
to 22kts possible for terminals with average gusts 15-20kts.
After 18Z, another weaker frontal boundary is expected to push
through the North Country with potential for showers and
isolated thunder mainly over terrain and for northeastern
Vermont. Have mention of VCSH for EFK which stands the best
chance of seeing a shower or thunderstorm, but can't rule out a
10-15% chance for any terminal. Gradients relax by 00Z with
frontal boundary out of the North Country.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Kutikoff
LONG TERM...Boyd
AVIATION...Boyd
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
SkiVt-L is brought to you by the University of Vermont.
To unsubscribe, visit http://list.uvm.edu/archives/skivt-l.html
|
