Expires:202011162100;;916136
FPUS51 KBTV 160724
ZFPBTV
Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
220 AM EST Mon Nov 16 2020
VTZ006-162100-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
220 AM EST Mon Nov 16 2020
.TODAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. A slight
chance of snow showers this morning, then a chance of snow
showers this afternoon. Snow accumulation a dusting to 1 inch
possible. Highs around 40. Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph with
gusts up to 35 mph. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy until midnight, then becoming mostly
cloudy. A slight chance of rain showers until midnight. A slight
chance of snow showers. Lows in the upper 20s. West winds 15 to
20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of precipitation
20 percent.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow
showers. Snow accumulation a dusting to 2 inches possible. Highs
in the lower 30s. West winds 10 to 15 mph.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow
showers. Little or no additional snow accumulation. Lows around
17. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 20s. Northwest
winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows 15 to 20.
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy. Highs in the upper 30s.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s.
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. Highs in the upper 40s.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s.
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy. Highs in the lower 40s.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s.
.SUNDAY...Cloudy. Highs in the upper 40s.
$$
Expires:202011161200;;924116
ASUS41 KBTV 161131
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST MON NOV 16 2020
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.
VTZ001>019-161200-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON CLOUDY 44 32 62 SW13 29.63S
MONTPELIER CLOUDY 42 28 57 SW13G20 29.67R
MORRISVILLE CLOUDY 41 34 76 W7 29.62R
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 38 36 92 MISG 29.60S
LYNDONVILLE* CLOUDY 36 35 95 CALM 29.62R FOG
MIDDLEBURY* MOCLDY 41 31 66 CALM 29.68F
RUTLAND* MOCLDY 43 29 57 SW8G21 29.68R
SPRINGFIELD CLOUDY 43 28 55 VRB3 29.70R
HIGHGATE* CLOUDY 43 32 65 SW8G18 29.61R
NEWPORT* CLOUDY 41 30 65 S9 29.59S
BENNINGTON CLOUDY 44 27 51 SW8 29.74R
ISLAND POND* N/A 37 N/A N/A SW6 N/A
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 34 N/A N/A MISG N/A
LAKE EDEN* N/A 37 N/A N/A S9 N/A WCI 31
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 30 N/A N/A SW32G51 N/A WCI 15
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND* N/A 45 36 70 S22G32 N/A
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 46 32 57 SW20 N/A
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 46 32 57 SE16G25 N/A
$$
Expires:No;;924027
FXUS61 KBTV 161131
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
631 AM EST Mon Nov 16 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
Rain and snow showers possible today, while lake effect showers
off Lake Ontario move across the North Country. A mostly dry
frontal passage on Tuesday will cause precipitation to gradually
taper off with cooler conditions for the middle of the week.
It will be coldest on Wednesday, when we expect temperatures
around twenty degrees below normal, with steady northwest winds.
However, temperatures quickly warm into the weekend, with the
forecast mostly dry through Sunday. Our next weather system
approaches late Sunday into next Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 623 AM EST Monday...Scattered lake effect showers will continue
while a longwave trough remains settled over our area, keeping
deep layer southwest flow over Lake Ontario into our region.
Flow will be largely unblocked, with abundant clouds. Expecting
steady temperatures for today with breezy southwest winds at 10
to 20 mph with gusts around 25 to 35 mph. Most precipitation
will be favored across the Adirondacks and in the Northeast
Kingdom. At times, temperatures will be cool enough for snow to
periodically mix in. With a lack of deep-layer moisture, amounts
should be generally an inch or less, except at the higher
summits and perhaps the southernmost tip of St. Lawrence due to
its proximity to Lake Ontario. Highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s,
and overnight lows in the mid 20s to lower 30s.
Tuesday will be fairly similar to today, with an embedded shortwave
trough and a wind shift that will provide the focus for additional
scattered showers, even if we lose the southwesterly flow off Lake
Ontario. Again, the flow looks generally unblocked, so orographic
lift should favor the summits and just downwind. Due to the switch
to northwest winds, temperatures will be cooler, only reaching the
30s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 236 AM EST Monday...Polar longwave trough pulls away
Tuesday night into Wednesday as cold surface high pressure
builds east from the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes. Variable clouds
with lingering northern mtn flurries/shsn gradually trend
partly/mostly sunny with dry conditions expected by Wednesday
late morning/afternoon. Some minor additional higher elevation
accumulations possible, perhaps up to an inch or so.
Temperatures trending chilly under modest northwesterly breezes
with lows generally single digits/teens (locally around 20 in
the Champlain Valley) and highs only in the 20s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 236 AM EST Monday...Chill down will be quite brief per
latest global deterministic output. Aforementioned surface high
builds atop and east of the area by Wednesday night into late
week as flow trends southerly over time. Wednesday night lows
may be a challenge as radiational effects compete with arriving
warm advection high clouds spilling atop the ridge. Time will
tell, but for now have leaned a bit on the chillier side -
especially in eastern counties. By Thursday, southerly flow
will aid in a quick rebound in temperatures as highs peak into
the upper 30s to mid 40s. Then further moderation into the 40s
to lower 50s from Friday onward into the upcoming weekend. Some
disparity among model solutions into next weekend in regard to a
stationary/warm front boundary taking shape in our vicinity.
The operational GFS/GEM camp would suggest this sets up across
the SLV into southern ON/QE, while the ECMWF says a bit further
south. With mean GEFS/GEPS/EPS output showing more consistency
in a northerly solution will lean this way accordingly, keeping
mainly dry weather across the area on Saturday, and confining
chances of showers to the northwestern Dacks/SLV on Sunday.
By next Monday, consensus would suggest the front gets a push
east from advancing northern stream shortwave energy, so chances
of showers should increase area wide.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 12Z Tuesday...Mainly VFR, except at KSLK. Some LLWS
possible at KSLK through about 15Z while strong southwest winds
remain at 2000ft agl. Scattered lake effect showers will
continue across the region through 06Z Wednesday, with the
greatest chance for any impacts at KSLK. Breezy south to
southwest winds are expected for the next 24 hours, generally
between 10 and 15 knots sustained with 20 to 30 knot gusts
possible through much of the TAF period. Ceilings remaining
around 3500-6000ft agl, but with intermittent pockets of MVFR.
After 00Z, west winds are expected to gradually subside to 4 to
9 knots.
Outlook...
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
&&
.MARINE...
A lake wind advisory continues. Winds have currently been
between 10 to 20 knots out of the southwest. Stronger winds have
been a bit more sporadic, but Burton Island and Colchester Reef
have had bouts of 20 to 25 knot sustained winds and gusts of 30
to 35 knots. Waves will generally be between 2 to 5 feet.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...Duell/Haynes
MARINE...WFO BTV
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