Expires:202207162000;;335861
FPUS51 KBTV 160723
ZFPBTV
Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
320 AM EDT Sat Jul 16 2022
VTZ018-162000-
Eastern Addison-
Including the cities of Bristol and Ripton
320 AM EDT Sat Jul 16 2022
.TODAY...Mostly cloudy this morning, then becoming partly sunny.
Highs in the mid 70s. Southwest winds around 10 mph.
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy until midnight, then clearing. Lows
around 60. Southwest winds around 10 mph until midnight, becoming
light and variable.
.SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. Light and
variable winds.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 60s. Light and
variable winds.
.MONDAY...Showers and scattered thunderstorms. Highs in the upper
70s. South winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms.
Locally heavy rainfall possible. Lows in the mid 60s. Chance of
rain 60 percent.
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 80s. Chance of rain 50 percent.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the
lower 80s. Chance of rain 30 percent.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the upper 60s.
.THURSDAY...Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms. Highs
in the lower 80s. Chance of rain 70 percent.
.THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...Partly cloudy. A chance of showers.
Lows in the mid 60s. Highs in the upper 70s. Chance of rain
30 percent.
$$
Expires:202207161100;;343529
ASUS41 KBTV 161030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SAT JUL 16 2022
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.
VTZ001>019-161100-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON CLOUDY 60 53 77 SE5 30.11S
MONTPELIER PTCLDY 53 48 83 CALM 30.19S
MORRISVILLE MOCLDY 51 49 92 CALM 30.15S
LYNDONVILLE* FAIR 50 49 96 CALM 30.18F
MIDDLEBURY* FAIR 56 55 95 CALM 30.13S
RUTLAND* MOCLDY 58 55 90 S3 30.15F
SPRINGFIELD MOCLDY 56 54 93 CALM 30.17S
HIGHGATE* FAIR 59 58 96 SE3 30.10S
NEWPORT* FAIR 53 51 92 SW6 30.15F
BENNINGTON PTCLDY 54 32 43 CALM 30.16S
ISLAND POND* N/A 46 N/A N/A CALM N/A
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 48 N/A N/A MISG N/A
LAKE EDEN* N/A 52 N/A N/A CALM N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 59 N/A N/A CALM N/A
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 59 54 82 SW9 N/A
$$
Expires:No;;337829
FXUS61 KBTV 160808
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
408 AM EDT Sat Jul 16 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Outside variable mid to high clouds, high pressure will bring
seasonably warm and dry weather to the area today into Monday
morning. By Monday afternoon into Tuesday several rounds of
showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected to affect the
area, some with potentially heavy rainfall. Thereafter, active
weather continues into later next week with additional showers
and storms possible by next Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 349 AM EDT Saturday...Quiet weather is expected across
the area over the next 36 hours as surface high pressure holds
across the area. A weak shortwave aloft will pass through the
region later today with little fanfare other than scattered to
broken mid to high level cloudiness. While I can't rule out an
isolated shower or stray storm across far southern counties
later this afternoon, lower to mid levels remain dry enough to
preclude any mention in the forecast at this point. Given the
abundance of ci/cs aloft today, I did back off another degree or
two for high temperatures, offering values generally in the 78
to 84 range under light south to southwesterly winds of 5 to 10
mph.
Then trending mainly clear to partly cloudy tonight into Sunday
under a continued light wind regime. Lows generally seasonable in
the 50s to around 60, with Sunday highs a tad warmer than today
ranging from 82 to 87.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 350 AM EDT Saturday...Main focus of the period remains a rare
widespread soaking rainfall which is expected to produce an axis of
heavy rain along its storm track. Low pressure will be in its
mature stage as it likely tracks through the St. Lawrence Valley
Monday afternoon/evening. Initial precipitation may consist of
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, particularly
with a slower and more northwest track, with enough surface
heating and moisture (temperatures in the 80s and dew points in
the mid to upper 60s) to generate moderate instability. Modest
wind speeds aloft during this time suggests any thunderstorms
will be capable of frequent lightning but primarily heavy
rainfall rates.
Strong upper level diffluence associated with the upper level
shortwave digging just upwind of the North Country will help
create a deep column of rich moisture that can be rung out
efficiently. Steady rain will at times be heavy through the
period, especially where precipitation is focused via
frontogenetic lift and where the storm's commahead moves
overhead Monday night, additional heavy rain will be possible
which could introduce greater risk of excessive rainfall and
minor flooding. At this time, only a marginal risk of excessive
rainfall is highlighted by the WPC areawide with some question
as to if the heaviest rain will move over our relatively wet
areas; antecedent dryness over most of Vermont would reduce the
threat for flooding if the heavier rainfall tends to be farther
south/east. Currently the greatest area of concern is over the
northern New York into far northwestern Vermont, which fits the
consensus of the EPS (ECMWF ensemble).
While the GFS and CMC ensemble members tend to be less wet and
farther south with the heavier rainfall, the 00Z deterministic
guidance has the GFS more in line with the NAM/ECMWF in the
focus of heavier precipitation across our northern/western
areas. Therefore, the current forecast has drawn the rainfall
amounts with less influence from the CMC. However, the
preferred scenario also is a little slower than what the 00Z GFS
shows, which also allows for warmer conditions and better
chance of seeing thunderstorms at the onset of the event. Not
much change in thinking compared to the previous forecast, but
will have to keep in consideration the possibility of a faster
onset of clouds and rain that would lower these temperatures
considerably.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 350 AM EDT Saturday...Active period of weather continues
Tuesday through Thursday with plenty of heat and humidity still in
place. Depending on how the rainfall on Monday shakes out, some
areas will be primed for flash flooding with additional heavy rain
associated with thunderstorms. While the current forecast does
shows heat index values peaking near or below 90, I see some potential
for 90-95 heat index on Wednesday in particular when more
persistent sunshine is possible to boost temperatures with high
humidity in place.
On Tuesday, northwest flow aloft should support increasing wind
shear and accompanying daytime instability indicates potential
strong thunderstorms. If there is a focusing mechanism for lift,
organized convection with a wind threat will be present. At this
time, there is too much model variability to get excited but will
need to keep an eye on trends. Otherwise, it will be a warm and
humid day with breezy westerly winds in the wake of the departed low
pressure system that will have intensified as it moved into the
Canadian Maritimes.
More question marks remain for Wednesday aside from continued warm
and humid conditions. While high temperatures are looking similar to
Tuesday, rising into the middle and upper 80s in most areas, have
noted the NBM 75th percentile is a bit warmer relative to the
previous day. This data suggests potential for it to be the hottest
day of the stretch and best chance of 90 degree temperatures barring
cloud cover associated with a frontal boundary that may be in our
vicinity. Poor agreement on location and timing of this feature
supports a low chance of showers and thunderstorms, which look more
favorable in our southern areas. By Wednesday night or Thursday
morning, a warm front will lift through the region.
On Thursday, a much stronger weather system, an anomalously deep low
pressure system tracking through the western Great Lakes will drag a
cold front through the North Country and potential for scattered
showers and thunderstorms looks good. It will likely be in its
decaying phase as an occluded front will be the focusing mechanism
for organized thunderstorms in our area. With large height falls as
the large occluded low barrels eastward, thunderstorms will easily
blossom. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible with any
deep convection, as moderate to high levels of deep layer shear
should be present and instability should increase as the mid and
upper air cools.
The system will be slow to depart so will expect some more
shower chances on Friday, although the convective threat is
unclear at this time. Temperatures should remain on the warm
side of normal but the low level air mass will have cooled
enough to support a bit lower highs compared to earlier in the
week with upper 70s to mid 80s currently forecast.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...VFR expected through the period under
surface high pressure. Light winds this morning generally trend
south/southwesterly from 5-10 kts this afternoon, then light
again after 00Z. High level moisture will foster SCT/BKN cigs
generally above 200 AGL through the 12-18Z time frame, thinning
thereafter.
Outlook...
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Likely
TSRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...Kutikoff
LONG TERM...Kutikoff
AVIATION...JMG
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