Expires:201511142100;;329306
FPUS51 KBTV 141105
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
601 AM EST SAT NOV 14 2015


VTZ006-142100-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
602 AM EST SAT NOV 14 2015

.TODAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE
MID 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. 
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 30. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND
10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTH WINDS AROUND
10 MPH. 
.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.
HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. 
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS
IN THE UPPER 30S. 
.THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. LOWS AROUND 40. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
AROUND 50. 

$$


Expires:201511141200;;330186
ASUS41 KBTV 141130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST SAT NOV 14 2015

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-141200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    34  22  61 NW17G26   29.84R WCI  23          
MONTPELIER     LGT SNOW  28  25  88 NW15G30   29.81R FOG     WCI  16  
MORRISVILLE    MIX PCPN  32  22  66 NW13G29   29.79R WCI  22          
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     32  24  72 MISG      29.74R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    28  24  82 W15G23    29.75R WCI  17          
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    33  25  73 N12G17    29.84R WCI  24          
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    36  21  55 NW12G23   29.80R WCI  27          
SPRINGFIELD    LGT RAIN  39  25  57 NW15G23   29.75R WCI  31          
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      31  23  70 W7G18     29.83R WCI  25          
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    28  22  77 W12G20    29.77R WCI  18          
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    38  31  76 W16G22    29.79R WCI  29          
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     27 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     36 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     18 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     36  28  75 NW26        N/A  WCI  23          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     34  27  75 NW14        N/A  WCI  24          

$$


Expires:No;;330649
FXUS61 KBTV 141141
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
641 AM EST SAT NOV 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE REGION TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST, MOUNTAIN DRIVEN RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING, WITH CLOUDY BUT DRIER
CONDITIONS PREVAILING THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD INTO AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK,
WITH DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 641 AM EST SATURDAY...ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED
TO THIS MORNINGS FORECAST WITH PRECIPITATION WINDING DOWN ACROSS
THE REGION. REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH CONTINUES TO SHIFT THROUGH THE BTV CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH MID-MORNING. CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH SAID LOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, BUT
THE DEEPEST 850-700MB MOISTURE QUICKLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GENERAL DECREASE IN
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HIGH PEAKS, POSSIBLY ENDING IN A
LITTLE BIT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AS ABUNDANT 925-850MB MOISTURE
REMAINS BUT IS BELOW THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH REGION. NOT
EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BASED ON UPSTREAM
OBS, WHICH COMBINED WITH MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION ON BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS WE'LL SEE A CHILLY DAY TO START YOUR WEEKEND WITH
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 30S, STRUGGLING TO HIT 40 IN THE CHAMPLAIN
AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

FOR TONIGHT, CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA
THOUGH WINDS WILL ABATE TO BELOW 10KTS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO THE REGION. STILL THINK WE'LL SEE PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE
STREAMING IN, AND THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL
NORMALS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 251 AM EST SATURDAY...PREVAILING DEEP-LAYER NWLY FLOW
REGIME EXTENDING FROM NRN ONTARIO INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL
BRING A RELATIVELY QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE IN PLACE...THERE IS SOME
INDICATION IN 00Z GFS AND NAM THAT A SHALLOW COLD FRONT MAY SLIDE
SWD FROM SRN QUEBEC INTO N-CENTRAL/NERN VT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AS PORTRAYED IN FALLING TEMPS/THICKNESS FIELDS. SHOULD
SEE LIGHT SW-W WINDS ON SUNDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPS INTO THE UPR
40S TO LWR 50S...EXCEPT LOCALLY IN THE MID 40S ACROSS NERN VT.
SHOULD SEE WINDS SHIFT NW AND N SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE
SHALLOW FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER
ON MONDAY (HIGHS 44-48F). A PERIOD OF FLURRIES/SPRINKLES IS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...BUT DEEP-LAYER FORCING SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. POPS HIGHEST ACROSS NERN VT MONDAY
MORNING (AROUND 20 PERCENT).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 251 AM EST SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS DEEP-LAYER RIDGE AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED 500MB RIDGE
AXIS DEVELOPS ALONG THE EAST COAST NWD ACROSS OUR REGION NWD INTO
QUEBEC. SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES...WITH
VALUES WELL-ABOVE NORMAL OVERALL FOR MID-NOVEMBER. HIGHS TUESDAY
WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY INTO THE UPR 40S TO LOWER 50S...AND THEN
INTO THE LOW-MID 50S FOR WEDNESDAY...WARMEST ACROSS THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY (MAY SEE LOCALIZED VALUES IN THE UPR 50S).
WEDNESDAY/S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED 10-12DEG ABOVE NORMAL. 

MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW SHEARING NEWD OUT OF THE CENTRAL GREAT
PLAINS AND MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WEAKENS AND BECOMES AN
OPEN 700-500MB WAVE AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE PREVAILING RIDGE ACROSS
THE ERN SEABOARD. IT APPEARS A REMNANT OCCLUDED BNDRY IN SWLY
FLOW WILL SHIFT INTO OUR REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WITH BETTER CONSISTENCY SHOWN ON TIMING WITH THE 00Z
GFS AND 00Z ECMWF. IT SHOULD REMAIN MILD WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S ON
THURSDAY...BUT HAVE SHOWN POPS OF 40-60 PERCENT WITH FRONTAL RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. PRESENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST
RAINFALL AMTS 0.25-0.50" AREAWIDE. A SLIGHT COOLDOWN THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT PREVAILING SW FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS WE WILL
CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL. ABUNDANT CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP LOWS ABOVE
FREEZING THURSDAY NIGHT (UPR 30S TO LOWER 40S) WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPR 40S TO LOWER 50S ON FRIDAY. MAINTAINED CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH PREVAILING CYCLONIC FLOW
WITH MAIN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS ONTARIO/WRN QUEBEC.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MID-DAY BEFORE A SLOW TREND BACK TO VFR AT ALL
SITES BY 00Z WITH SKIES REMAINING BKN. KSLK/KMPV STILL SEEING
ON/OFF SNOW SHOWERS AS OF 11Z, BUT EXPECT WITHIN THE NEXT 3 HOURS
THAT ACTIVITY WILL SUBSIDE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD GENERALLY AT 8-12KTS, WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS,ABATING AFTER 00Z SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED AVIATION PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATELY STRONG AND
GUSTY NWLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH PASSED THROUGH
EARLY THIS MORNING. SHOULD SEE NW WINDS 15-25 KNOTS FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE DAY...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 10-20 KNOTS THIS EVENING
AND 5-15 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT LEADING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH
THE EXPECTED WINDS...WAVES AROUND 3 FEET WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
CREATE CHOPPY CONDITIONS THAT MAY HAVE AN IMPACT ON BOATING
CONDITIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...LAHIFF
MARINE...EVENSON

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
SkiVt-L is brought to you by the University of Vermont.

To unsubscribe, visit http://list.uvm.edu/archives/skivt-l.html