Expires:202011152100;;871305
FPUS51 KBTV 151102
ZFPBTV
Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
559 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020
VTZ006-152100-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
559 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020
.TODAY...Partly sunny with a slight chance of rain this morning,
then cloudy with a chance of rain this afternoon. Windy with
highs in the lower 40s. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts
up to 30 mph, increasing to 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph
this afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
.TONIGHT...Rain until midnight, then rain showers likely after
midnight. Windy with lows in the mid 30s. South winds 20 to
30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph, becoming southwest 15 to 20 mph
after midnight. Chance of rain near 100 percent.
.MONDAY...A slight chance of snow showers in the morning. Mostly
cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Little or no snow
accumulation. Highs around 40. Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph with
gusts up to 35 mph. Chance of precipitation 30 percent.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow
showers. Light snow accumulation possible. Lows in the upper 20s.
West winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow
showers. Little or no additional snow accumulation. Highs in the
mid 30s. West winds 10 to 15 mph.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows 15 to 20.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 20s.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 15.
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 30s.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain or snow
showers. Lows in the upper 20s. Chance of precipitation
30 percent.
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. Highs in the lower 40s.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s.
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Highs around 40.
$$
Expires:202011151200;;872796
ASUS41 KBTV 151130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST SUN NOV 15 2020
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.
VTZ001>019-151200-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON CLEAR 28 21 75 E6 30.19F WCI 22
MONTPELIER CLEAR 20 18 92 E3 30.23S
MORRISVILLE CLEAR 21 18 88 CALM 30.21F
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 22 19 89 MISG 30.23R
LYNDONVILLE* FAIR 20 19 95 NE5 30.21F WCI 14
MIDDLEBURY* FAIR 26 20 77 S3 30.19F
RUTLAND* CLEAR 24 21 88 SE6 30.21F WCI 17
SPRINGFIELD CLEAR 20 18 92 CALM 30.26F
HIGHGATE* FAIR 28 21 76 SE3 30.18F
NEWPORT* FAIR 21 19 93 S6 30.20F WCI 14
BENNINGTON PTCLDY 24 19 81 SE3 30.20S
ISLAND POND* N/A 18 N/A N/A CALM N/A
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 19 N/A N/A MISG N/A
LAKE EDEN* N/A 21 N/A N/A N1 N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 23 N/A N/A SE21 N/A WCI 8
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND* N/A 34 28 80 SE15 N/A WCI 24
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 36 30 80 S21 N/A WCI 24
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 32 27 80 SE2 N/A
$$
Expires:No;;873083
FXUS61 KBTV 151138
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
638 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy conditions are expected today. A wind advisory has been
issued for this afternoon across Saint Lawrence, Franklin, and
western Clinton Counties for strong southeast wind gusts up to
55 mph, generally along and south of Route 11. Widespread
precipitation spreads across the North Country this afternoon.
While most locations will experience rain, higher terrain of the
Adirondacks, the Greens, and the Northeast Kingdom could see
snow mix in at times. On Monday and Tuesday, rain and snow
showers will gradually diminish, lingering longest in the
mountains and downwind of Lake Ontario. It then turns dry and
cold for Wednesday and Thursday. This will be followed by a weak
disturbance on Friday, with a warming trend over the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 627 AM EST Sunday...Wind Advisory in effect in St. Lawrence,
Franklin, and Western Clinton Counties in New York from 1 PM to 8 PM
with southeasterly wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph.
Main forecast update was to speed up the precipitation timing
based on upstream obs. However, temperatures are currently near
to below freezing over portions of New York with thermal profiles
that would indicate some freezing rain or sleet potential. It's
more likely that sufficient warming takes place before
precipitation arrives that there should not be any issues, but
to be on the safe side, have issued an SPS through 10 AM for
pockets of light freezing rain with accumulations of a glaze to
a hundredth in Northern New York (except near Lake Champlain).
Previous Discussion...
Currently quiet as upper ridging is overhead. High level clouds
are starting to spill over into our area. These are streaming
ahead of a large upper trough and deepening surface low pressure
over the Great Lakes region. We will see increasing southeast
winds as pressure gradients tighten with this deepening low
pressure system. At 925hPa winds will increase upwards to 55 to
66 knots. Mixing is not expected to be optimal. Much of our area
will be relatively stable, but portions of northern New York
appear to get warmer, and will be slightly less stable.
Additionally, the inversion layer present is broad, and the top
is just above ridge tops with the jet maximized within that
inversion layers. Using a blend of tools has winds just reaching
wind advisory criteria, so have issued one for the northwest
facing slopes of the Adirondacks. The main focus will be along
and south of US Route 11 in this area. It is possible northwest
slopes of the northern Greens sees an isolated gust up to 50
mph as well, but the less favorable mixing conditions and
shorter time within the jet makes this a bit more unlikely.
Isolated power outages and downed trees or large branches remain
possible.
The precipitation aspect of the forecast remains in good shape,
owing to the strong dynamics associated with this system. In the
morning, a surge of warm advection should produce light
precipitation as upper ridging shifts east. Trends have been for the
front to arrive a couple hours later, so we could see some dry
conditions for a bit longer this afternoon before widespread rain
moves in towards evening. As a result, things look warmer and less
favorable for wet-bulbing to reach sufficiently cool temperatures
for snow. The forecast still won't rule out a rain-snow mix, but
accumulations have been edged further up in elevation.
The main concern is the shallow convective line, which has continued
to trend further northward in extent across CAM outputs. Best
instability remains to our south, and some of what we see could be
associated with parallel stratiform in the strong south-southwest
flow. Given the unidirectional nature of the flow, this does not
look quite as favorable for winds to mix in from a rear-inflow jet,
or something of that nature that causes it to form bows within the
linear structure. Still, gusty showers will be possible as this line
moves east towards 7-9 PM today. Overnight into Monday,the dry slot
filters in and winds become southwesterly, we'll see more elevation
dependent showers and lake effect showers while we remain in the
envelop of broad low pressure. Looks like most snow will be confined
to the Adirondacks and higher terrain of the Greens. Liquid amounts
of 0.25"-0.67" still looks good with less than an inch of snow over
high terrain. Southwest winds remains breezy on Monday with gusts of
20 to 35 mph and highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 345 AM EST Sunday...Monday night into Tuesday will see a
transition to west to northwest flow aloft as a series of shortwave
troughs move into the region. This will help to push the Lake
Ontario precipitation band south of our area. However, the shortwave
troughs and the northwest flow aloft will promote precipitation
chances over the area, especially in the mountains. Temperatures
will be cold enough for snow showers in the mountains, but valley
locations will mainly see rain showers. Not a lot of moisture
around, but enough to promote some minor snow accumulations in the
mountains.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 345 AM EST Sunday...Surge of colder air at 850 millibars moves
into the region Tuesday night into Wednesday and sets the stage for
the coldest period of the extended forecast. Drier air will also be
moving into the region as high pressure builds in during this time
period. So any snow showers should come to an end Tuesday night with
dry weather on Wednesday. Highs on Wednesday will only be in the 20s
and this will be about 15 to 20 degrees colder than normal for this
time of year. Clear skies and light winds Wednesday night will allow
for temperatures to drop into the teens to around 20, but single
digits for the northern Adirondacks of New York and parts of the
Northeast Kingdom in Vermont. The flow aloft backs to the west
Thursday into Friday which will start a gradual warming trend with
highs on Friday getting back to seasonal normals. Still looks like a
shortwave trough will move just north of our area, but could bring
some rain showers to the area. High pressure returns for Saturday
with no precipitation expected and temperatures right around
seasonal normals.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 12Z Monday...Currently VFR, with light precipitation
about to pivot into northern New York from the southwest. Southeasterly
winds will quickly increase after 12Z up to 15 to 25 knots sustained,
with gusts of 30 to 35 kts expected beyond 15Z. Areas of LLWS
are also expected after 15Z as a strong southerly jet moves
overhead. LLWS will be strongest between 19Z Sunday and 01Z
Monday. Most precipitation this morning will be light or not
reaching the ground. More widespread rain will spread over the
area, mainly from 21Z-04Z. After 02Z, winds become southwesterly,
remaining elevated at 10 to 15 knots sustained and gusts of 20
to 30 knots. Given the expected winds, most TAF sites should
remain VFR despite the onset of rainfall, with general
deterioration to MVFR ceilings only expected after 21Z. Ceilings
improve after 04Z as dry slot of low pressure moves in. After
07Z, lake effect rain or snow showers could impact SLK.
Outlook...
Monday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHSN.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.MARINE...
A strong low pressure system will produce strong southeast to
south winds that will channel through the Champlain Valley.
Winds will be strongest from noon today through midnight with
sustained winds of 15 to 28 knots, and gusts as high as 40 knots
on Lake Champlain today. Waves are expected to increase to 4 to
6 feet in response to strong winds. Winds gradually subside
after midnight, but remain 10 to 20 knots.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EST this
evening for NYZ026-027-029>031-087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes
SHORT TERM...Evenson
LONG TERM...Evenson
AVIATION...Duell/Haynes
MARINE...WFO BTV
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