Expires:202010142000;;275794
FPUS51 KBTV 140955
ZFPBTV
Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
553 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2020
VTZ006-142000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
553 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2020
.TODAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 50s. West winds around
10 mph.
.TONIGHT...Mostly clear until midnight, then becoming partly
cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s. Light and variable winds, becoming
south 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph after midnight.
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy in the morning, then partly sunny with
a slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Breezy, warmer with
highs in the upper 60s. South winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to
35 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the upper 40s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph with
gusts up to 25 mph.
.FRIDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the mid 50s. Southeast winds
around 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Rain. Rain may be heavy at times. Lows in the
upper 30s. Chance of rain 90 percent.
.SATURDAY...Rain. Rain may be heavy at times. Highs in the upper
40s. Chance of rain 80 percent.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear with a 30 percent chance of rain
showers. Lows in the lower 30s.
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 50s.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy and breezy. Lows in the lower 40s.
.MONDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 50s.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s.
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 50s.
$$
Expires:202010141100;;277433
ASUS41 KBTV 141031
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2020
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.
VTZ001>019-141100-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON PTCLDY 47 44 90 CALM 29.88R FOG
MONTPELIER CLEAR 48 45 89 NW7 29.89R
MORRISVILLE PTCLDY 49 45 86 VRB5 29.86S
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 45 44 97 MISG 29.84R
LYNDONVILLE* FAIR 45 43 91 CALM 29.86S
MIDDLEBURY* FOG 47 47 99 CALM 29.89R VSB 1/4
RUTLAND* MOCLDY 49 49 100 NW5 29.89R
SPRINGFIELD MOCLDY 52 46 80 W6 29.87R
NEWPORT* FAIR 46 43 87 NW3 29.86S
BENNINGTON CLOUDY 46 44 93 CALM 29.92R
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 39 N/A N/A NW41 N/A WCI 26
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND* N/A 52 48 87 W2 N/A
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 54 52 94 E6 N/A
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 48 48 100 S5 N/A
$$
Expires:No;;275742
FXUS61 KBTV 140948
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
548 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
Low clouds and patchy fog should burn off this morning with
increasing amounts of sunshine this afternoon, as temperatures
warm to near seasonable levels. Warmer and windy conditions
develop on Thursday, before our next widespread rainfall occurs
on Friday into Saturday. As temperature profiles cool some wet
snow is possible across the summits on Saturday morning. Some
rises on streams and rivers are expected this weekend, as
rainfall totals range from one half to two and half inches
across our region.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 545 AM EDT Wednesday...After reviewing the 06z data have
gone ahead and issued wind advisory for northwest facing slopes
of the northern Dacks, SLV, and Grand Isle County, VT from 5 AM
to 8 PM Thurs. Guidance continues to strengthen 925mb to 850mb
winds acrs our northern cwa, with progged values in the 55 to 65
knot range. The period of strongest winds look to occur in two
rounds, first btwn 6 AM and 10 AM for the northern dacks and
second max acrs the slv btwn 3 PM and 7 PM. Soundings data
support localized gusts up to 50 mph possible in the advisory
area, along with the potential for some isolated power outages.
Otherwise, rest of fcst in good shape.
Fcst challenge this morning will be dissipation
of low clouds/fog, followed by wind potential on Thursday. Water
vapor shows large scale subsidence aloft acrs our fa, while
plenty of llvl moisture is trapped below inversion as northwest
flow prevails. Latest nighttime microphysics shows summits
starting to breakout above the low clouds, indicating drying
aloft is working toward the sfc. In addition, west to northwest
winds have helped to advect slightly drier bl air into our cwa
this morning, which should promote low cloud/fog dissipation by
14z. Progged 925mb temps range btwn 8-10c this aftn, supporting
highs upper 50s to mid 60s. Tonight, temps will drop quickly
early with mainly clear skies and light winds, however gradient
sharpens aft 04z and south winds develop. These increasing winds
and some mid lvl moisture advection will result in temps slowly
rising aft midnight acrs northern NY into parts of VT. Coolest
valleys will be NEK where lows approach freezing, while CPV/SLV
hold in the mid/upper 40s.
Thursday...Sfc gradient increases as 992mb low pres tracks
toward Hudson Bay and strong 925mb to 850mb waa develops
associated with potent llvl jet. Latest guidance indicates 850mb
sw jet of 50 to 60 knots angling acrs northern NY into VT,
while 925mb winds of 40 to 50 knots are progged btwn 12-18z
Thurs. Soundings show depth of mix layer increasing as sfc
heating and llvl lapse rates steepen, supporting localized
gusts 35 to 40 knots possible. These favorable regions of
gustier winds include northwest facing slopes of the northern
dacks, parts of the central/northern CPV, and over the slv
associated with enhanced channeled sw to ne flow up the valley.
Elsewhere, breezy winds of 10 to 20 gusts up to 30 knots
possible. Progged 925mb temps surge btwn 14-16c, supporting
highs well into the upper 60s to mid 70s most locations. A few
upper 70s possible, if more sun occurs. Ribbon of 850 to 500mb
enhanced moisture enters northern NY by 18z and spreads into VT
by 21z, with some light rain showers developing toward 00z acrs
the SLV/Dacks. Have continued to mention chc pops to cover this
potential.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 346 AM EDT Wednesday...A cold front will enter the St. Lawrence
Valley Thursday night and will bring some rain showers to northern
New York during the overnight hours. The low pressure system this
front is attached to will be tracking across northern Quebec and
will be weakening as it continues to shift to the north and east.
This should really limit the dynamics across the region and is
expected to limit rainfall initially as all guidance shows the front
stalling and shearing apart. Friday for the most part is expected to
be dry as the lack of any appreciable forcing should only support
some scattered shower activity. By late Friday afternoon, steady
rain is expected to move into southern Vermont and begin to spread
north as a decent rain event begins to unfold.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 346 AM EDT Wednesday...The upper level trough across the Ohio
River Valley Friday night and as it does so, it'll take on a
negative tilt. The once washed up cold front will begin to slide
eastward with all guidance showing strong frontogenetic forcing
along the leading edge of the front. This area of surface
convergence has shifted eastward compared to models 24 hours ago
which is do to a developing surface low off the New England
coastline overnight Friday. This small feature will have a big
impact on our rainfall totals across the region as it'll
significantly impact the moisture advection across the northeastern
US. Ultimately, this will lead to a tight gradient in rainfall
amounts with the highest amounts occurring across eastern Vermont and
the lowest amounts across the St. Lawrence Valley. We are still
looking at very favorable jet dynamics, moisture convergence and
surface convergence which is expected to bring a period of moderate
to heavy rainfall between 8 PM Friday night through 11 AM Saturday.
During this time, rainfall amounts between a half of an inch across
the St. Lawrence County to nearly an inch and a half of rain across
western Vermont is expected. Eastern Vermont will likely be the
winner of the rainfall lottery thanks to the forecasted track of the
surface low and could see 2-2.5 inches of rain. Looking at some of
the Meteorological Model Ensemble River Forecasts (MMEFS) run by the
Northeast River Forecast Center, we will likely see some decent
rises on Vermont rivers given the rainfall. In addition, there is a
small chance (less than 20%) at this time that a few rivers may rise
above minor flood stage. This is something we will continue to keep
an eye on in coming days but widespread flooding is not anticipated
at this time.
It's still looking like we could see snow on the back end of the
system at higher elevations. The NAM, GFS, ECMWF, CMC and UKMET all
show a stripe of snow across the northern Adirondacks and the Green
Mountains with a snow level somewhere between 3500 and 4000 ft. We
ran some preliminary grids and it looks like the northern
Adirondacks could see 2-5 inches at the higher peaks with 1-2 inches
across the higher peaks of the Green Mountains. Given the ground
temperature is well above freezing as we've seen only a handful of
freezes this fall, accumulating snowfall is not expected near sea-
level although some rain/snow mix may fall as low as 2500 ft.
Given the progressive nature of the upper level low, rainfall will
come to a quick end Saturday afternoon and will be replace by a 1030
mb high pressure Saturday night. After a dry day on Sunday, we will
return to a wet and unsettled period of weather through the first
half of next week. Another frontal system looks poised to enter the
region during the first half of next week but there are huge
discrepancies across the global guidance as the flow remains quite
amplified.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...Another very challenging aviation fcst
with conditions crntly ranging from vfr to vlifr at mss/pbg.
Expecting the highest potential of ifr/lifr conditions to
prevail at MPV/SLK/MSS and RUT with intervals of ifr possible at
BTV/PBG. As northwest winds develop, slightly drier air develops
and thinking this should improve conditions at PBG by 08z and by
09z at BTV. However, upslope flow and moisture trapped below
subsidence inversion will promote areas of low clouds/br at
slk/mpv and rut thru 12z. Conditions improve after 12z with
trends toward vfr likely, as mixing develops and low clouds
dissipate. Localized wind gusts up to 20 knots possible btwn
15z-20z today at most sites, before light and trrn driven winds
develop after sunset this evening.
Outlook...
Thursday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Definite RA, Likely
SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for VTZ001.
NY...Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ026>028-
030-031-087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...Clay
LONG TERM...Clay
AVIATION...Taber
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