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August 2020, Week 3

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Subject:
From:
Wesley Alan Wright <[log in to unmask]>
Reply To:
Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>
Date:
Mon, 17 Aug 2020 06:50:02 -0400
Content-Type:
text/plain
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Expires:202008172000;;372670
FPUS51 KBTV 170718
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
316 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2020


VTZ006-172000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
316 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2020

.TODAY...Partly sunny. Patchy dense fog this morning. Showers
likely with a slight chance of thunderstorms this afternoon.
Highs in the mid 70s. Light and variable winds. Chance of rain
70 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Showers likely with a slight chance of
thunderstorms until midnight, then a chance of showers and
thunderstorms after midnight. Lows in the upper 50s. Light and
variable winds, becoming southwest around 10 mph after midnight.
Chance of rain 70 percent. 
.TUESDAY...A chance of thunderstorms. Showers likely, mainly in
the morning. Highs in the lower 70s. West winds around 10 mph.
Chance of rain 70 percent. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the lower 50s. Light and variable winds. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s. Northwest
winds around 10 mph. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. 
.THURSDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs around 70. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the
upper 70s. Chance of rain 40 percent. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of showers. Lows in
the upper 50s. Chance of rain 40 percent. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the
lower 70s. Chance of rain 40 percent. 

$$


Expires:202008171100;;380237
ASUS41 KBTV 171030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT MON AUG 17 2020

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-171100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     MOCLDY    62  56  80 E5        29.90R                  
MONTPELIER     FOG       52  52 100 CALM      29.98R VSB 3/4          
MORRISVILLE    PTCLDY    54  53  97 S6        29.93S                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     55  54  96 MISG      29.94R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FOG       54  53  97 CALM      29.97R VSB<1/4          
RUTLAND*       PTCLDY    57  57 100 SE8       29.95R                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    58  56  93 CALM      29.95R                  
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    63  57  82 CALM      29.90R                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      55  54  94 CALM      29.95R                  
BENNINGTON     CLEAR     53  51  93 CALM      29.94R                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     48 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     48 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     57 N/A N/A SW7         N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     66  59  77 SE14        N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     66  59  77 S16         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     64  59  82 S7          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;375723
FXUS61 KBTV 170825
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
425 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
This evening will be another pleasant one with a few lingering 
showers possible. Precipitation chances increase from west to east 
on Monday as a cold front crosses the region. After the frontal
passage, cooler and drier conditions will prevail through much 
of the latter half of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 430 AM EDT Monday...An area of scattered showers and some
embedded thunderstorms is continuing to push eastward across 
our area early this morning. These showers are tied to an 
approaching 700mb trough. A cold frontal boundary and mid-level 
shortwave trough will cross the region today into tonight. The 
front will come through in pieces, with one boundary/surface 
trough to come through during the daylight hours followed by 
another trough/secondary front in the evening and overnight. 
This means we'll have a couple separate rounds of storms.
Our environment is lacking any significant instability due to 
weak mid level lapse rates. Shear will increase a bit as an 
upper trough approaches from the west. This means will have a
bit better dynamic support for the evening convection, though 
instability will be waning with the loss of daytime heating at 
that time. Widespread strong/severe storms are not anticipated, 
but some of the more robust cells could produce some gusty 
winds, mainly across the St Lawrence Valley into portions of the
Adirondacks. Showers will likely continue overnight as the 
secondary front pushes across the region, with perhaps a bit of
lightning overnight as well. Maximum temperatures today will
range through the 70s due to lots of clouds and a couple rounds
of precipitation expected. Low temperatures tonight will range
through the 50s, warmest along Lake Champlain. We will still
have the upper level trough over our region for Tuesday,
therefore further showers are anticipated, especially tied to
the higher terrain along our northern zones. Highs on Tuesday
will also range through the 70s. These temperatures are very
close to seasonal normals though will likely feel cool after the
above normal temperatures that we've recently experienced. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 303 AM EDT Monday...Base of upper trough swings through 
the region during the Tuesday night/Wednesday time frame along 
with partly cloudy skies and seasonable to slightly below normal
temperatures. Can't rule out a brief northern mountain sprinkle
or light shower through this period but by and large dry 
weather should be the rule. Lows Tuesday night mainly from the 
upper 40s to mid 50s with corresponding highs on Wednesday in 
the upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 303 AM EDT Monday...Building model consensus that upper 
trough then lifts out through late week with a gradual warming 
trend and dry weather through Friday as upper flow trends more 
zonal in nature. A northern stream shortwave trough and 
attendant surface front still appears likely to affect the 
region by next Sat/Sun with increasing chances of showers and 
perhaps a few storms. Highs in the 70s on Thursday warm into the
upper 70s to mid 80s by Saturday ahead of the aforementioned 
surface front, then cool slightly by early next week as the 
trough clears east.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...Area of showers with isolated thunder
pushing through MSS currently, and will impact SLK in the next
hour or so. This line of showers will fall apart as it pushes
eastward. Still think we'll see some more showers push through
the area this afternoon. Some fog formation is anticipated at
MPV between about 7-11z. Typical gap winds expected at RUT, and
elsewhere light winds overnight. By daybreak, a front 
approaches MSS and SLK, causing prevailing wind to shift from 
south to southwest between 12 and 18Z. Scattered showers will 
affect these terminals mainly in the 3 to 5 hour period before 
the FROPA, which will be around 14-15Z at MSS and SLK. Front 
will hang up west of PBG, with southerly winds remaining through
00z at all VT sites, except in any showers and thunderstorms 
that develop. At this time, uncertain on precisely when and 
where these showers will develop, especially in VT, so have VCSH
with TSRA also possible with gusty winds after 18Z.

Outlook...

Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The NOAA Weather Radio transmitter atop Mount Mansfield remains
off the air due to equipment failure. Our technicians have 
ordered parts, but time of return to service is unknown at this 
time.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...Neiles
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

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