Expires:202207182000;;448980
FPUS51 KBTV 180729
ZFPBTV
Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
325 AM EDT Mon Jul 18 2022
VTZ018-182000-
Eastern Addison-
Including the cities of Bristol and Ripton
325 AM EDT Mon Jul 18 2022
.TODAY...A chance of showers this morning, then showers with a
chance of thunderstorms this afternoon. Some thunderstorms may
produce heavy rainfall this afternoon. Not as warm with highs in
the mid 70s. South winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain near
100 percent.
.TONIGHT...Showers and thunderstorms until midnight, then showers
likely after midnight. Some thunderstorms may produce heavy
rainfall until midnight. Humid with lows in the mid 60s. South
winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of rain
90 percent.
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny. A chance of showers in the morning.
Humid with highs in the upper 70s. West winds 10 to 15 mph with
gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 60s. West winds
10 to 15 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny. Humid with highs in the lower 80s.
West winds around 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of showers. Lows
in the upper 60s. Chance of rain 30 percent.
.THURSDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the lower 80s. Chance of
rain 60 percent.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 60.
.FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Highs in the upper 70s.
Lows around 60.
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the
upper 70s. Chance of rain 30 percent.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 60.
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the
upper 70s. Chance of rain 30 percent.
$$
Expires:202207181100;;456860
ASUS41 KBTV 181030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2022
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.
VTZ001>019-181100-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON MOCLDY 68 62 81 CALM 29.94S
MONTPELIER CLEAR 60 56 86 CALM 30.04R
MORRISVILLE CLEAR 56 54 93 S3 29.99S
LYNDONVILLE* FAIR 58 57 96 CALM 30.03S FOG
MIDDLEBURY* FAIR 69 65 88 CALM 29.96S
RUTLAND* CLEAR 66 63 90 SE9 29.99S
SPRINGFIELD PTCLDY 62 61 96 CALM 30.01R
HIGHGATE* MOCLDY 66 65 96 CALM 29.92F
NEWPORT* FAIR 61 58 91 SW6 29.99F
BENNINGTON PTCLDY 68 64 87 SE3 29.99S
ISLAND POND* N/A 54 N/A N/A CALM N/A
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 55 N/A N/A MISG N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 66 N/A N/A CALM N/A
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 68 63 83 S16 N/A
$$
Expires:No;;452284
FXUS61 KBTV 180826
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
426 AM EDT Mon Jul 18 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
An active week of weather will begin with a widespread soaking
rainfall with some downpours today. An extended period of very
warm and humid conditions will follow Tuesday through Thursday.
Isolated to scattered strong thunderstorms are possible Tuesday
afternoon and more showers and thunderstorms are likely for
Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 426 AM EDT Monday...A welcome soaking rainfall is coming
this afternoon and evening. Estimated relative soil moisture in
the 10 to 40 cm layer suggests that even in the relatively wet
areas of the Adirondacks, a flood threat will be localized and
tied to poor drainage areas. No big changes to what has been
advertised in recent days, as we expect a long duration of rain
with some convective elements that will create brief very heavy
rainfall.
Tropical-like rain is evident in thunderstorms over the Ohio
Valley early this morning where dew points are in the upper 60s
to low 70s. These types of dew points/muggy air will arrive in
our area today. The CIRA satellite-derived advected layer
precipitable water shows a plume of surface to 850 millibar
moisture lifting northeastward from the Gulf of Mexico into this
convection. This air will follow the warm sector northeastward
along the track of the low pressure system passing over the
eastern Great Lakes into the St. Lawrence Valley. As the storm
moves northeastward, so too will a warm front. This front will
be the focus for the first round of widespread rain between
about noon and 6 PM. Then we should see increasing instability
in the warm sector that should result in cellular activity with
brief torrential rainfall from about 6 PM through midnight;
forecast soundings show the classic tall, skinny CAPE associated
with moist adiabatic lapse rates and warm cloud depths in
excess of 13,000 feet and precipitable water of around 2.1".
Thereafter, the low pressure system will move eastward over
northernmost New York and Vermont which will cause winds to shift to
the west, and with lingering moisture above mountain height we
should transition into a short period of upslope rain showers in a
slow moving or blocked flow regime. Meanwhile, muggy air will
persist and as winds Total storm rainfall still looks to be in the
1 to 1.5 inch range for most locations, with locally higher amounts
over 2 inches expected.
Then for Tuesday, still expecting ample humidity at the surface
while dry air moves in on westerly flow aloft. Plenty of
sunshine will result in a return to hotter conditions after a
day of rain cooled air, and this will likely be the first of
three very warm days in a row. The heat and humidity will set
the stage for isolated to scattered coverage of thunderstorms.
Given ample 0-6 km northwesterly bulk wind shear in the 30-40
knot range overlaying an area of 1000 to 2000 J/kg CAPE, an SPC
marginal risk for severe thunderstorms in roughly the northern
half of Vermont and most adjacent northern New York looks
reasonable at this time. A higher risk level would have to
overcome the relatively poor surface convergence and dry air
aloft that should limit areal coverage of severe weather. If we
realize the higher end of the instability, both wind and hail
threats will be possible, so stay weather aware Tuesday
afternoon, especially looking to your north.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 400 AM EDT Monday...
* Hot and Humid conditions are expected Wednesday *
The tail end of a passing cold front will be exiting the North
Country Tuesday night, but some lingering showers and possibly a
thunderstorm will remain possible until around midnight. The biggest
issue will be that temperatures will only cool into the mid/upper
60s for the Champlain and Saint Lawrence valleys while the flow
pattern remains west to southwest. Effectively, the boundary will
not be strong enough to scour out low level moisture with winds
advecting higher dew points for Wednesday while partially clearing
skies allow heat to build. The result will be a sultry day with
increasing concerns for heat related illness as temperatures climb
into the upper 80s to around 90 with dew points in the upper 60s to
around 70 degrees; apparent temperatures will be in the low 90s for
main valleys and upper 80s elsewhere. Models have been sliding
warmer over the last few runs for Wednesday with 925mb temperatures
around 22-25C in some instances; it's feasible that this trend will
continue and heat related concerns will increase. The warm nose at
925mb will likely keep convection capped as well through the prime
heating hours for much of the afternoon until instability increases
as the next system begins to approach late in the afternoon or
possibly in the evening.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 400 AM EDT Monday...Mid range models continue to present a
potent cold front with upper level dynamic support to push through
the region Wednesday night through Thursday night. Some model
consensus is forming on the front and back ends of the system, but
timing variances remain between deterministic and blended model
guidance. While individual models continue to differ with exact
timing of the frontal boundary and period of best forcing, it's
reasonable to assume that some will likely occur Thursday.
Thunderstorms through Thursday night: Forcing with the negatively
tilted trough will be sufficient to expect at least the potential
for thunderstorms ahead and along the boundary Wednesday night
through Thursday night. For Wednesday night, best chances for
showers will be towards the Saint Lawrence Valley before shifting
east across Vermont Thursday and Thursday night. Shear will be ample
with this system as well supporting the idea of some potential for a
stronger cell during peak heating on Thursday afternoon. PWATs are
looking like they will approach/possibly exceed 1.5" with the system
with periods of heavy rain possible. Flooding chances will be
conditional on how much rain occurs Monday-Tuesday and where
heaviest rainfall happens to fall on Thursday; this will be
something we'll be reevaluating over the next couple of days. Of
course, phasing/timing of particular features may change over the
next few days, so these specifics will be further refined.
Heat: Again, no scouring of low level moisture will occur with
southerly flow and cloud cover Wednesday night. Thursday is shaping
up to be warm as well, especially for Vermont which will be more
delaying in precipitation chances as the front approaches.
Temperatures will not build as much as Wednesday given increasing
chances of rain in the afternoon on Thursday, but dew points will be
higher; another uncomfortable day is expected with apparent
temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees.
Conditions remain unsettled heading into the weekend behind the
front with westerly winds aloft and broad cyclonic flow with a weak
surface boundary in place. While there will be chances of showers
and afternoon thunderstorms, temperatures should be trending back
towards seasonal averages with highs int he upper 70s to low/mid 80s
for the North Country.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 00Z Tuesday...VFR conditions continue through 12Z with
mid/high clouds increasing from the south and west. In the 12Z
to 18Z period, a warm front will bring widespread rain northward
and cause deteriorating conditions, including MVFR ceilings and
IFR visibilities in heavier rain. In the 18Z to 00Z period, the
warm front will lift through the region which will support
better chances of heavy rain and IFR conditions, along with a
low chance of thunder, especially at MPV and RUT.
Light winds overnight will increase from the south-southeast at
5-10kts with occasional gusts in the 15 to 20 knot range.
Between 00Z and 06Z as low pressure passes to the north and
east, winds will turn westerly at MSS and SLK with
precipitation winding down. Elsewhere mainly southerly winds
will increase into the 8 to 12 knot range with brief gusts to 22
knots with showers and associated MVFR/IFR conditions
continuing.
Outlook...
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Likely
TSRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
As of 400 AM EDT Sunday...A widespread, and largely beneficial
rainfall event is expected across the area on Monday afternoon
into Monday evening. Most realistic deterministic solutions
would argue for a period of steady rainfall for most areas
during this period, with locally heavier amounts possible with
embedded non-severe thunderstorms. Basin average rainfall should
generally range from 1 to 1.5 inches across the forecast area,
with local totals of 1.5 to 2.5 inches possible in most
persistent rainfall. Areas in the St. Lawrence Valley into the
northern Adirondacks and into northwestern VT appear to stand
the greatest chance to receive higher amounts. Given the fact
that these amounts will fall over the course of an 8-12 hour
period, excessive rainfall and the overall threat of flooding
appears low at this time. However, WPC does maintain a marginal
risk of flash flooding Monday into Monday evening, and
localized, minor poor drainage flooding is possible in areas of
heaviest rainfall.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Boyd
LONG TERM...Boyd
AVIATION...Kutikoff
HYDROLOGY...JMG
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