Expires:202306281500;;894311
FPUS51 KBTV 280726
ZFPBTV
Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
324 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2023
VTZ018-281500-
Eastern Addison-
Including the cities of Bristol and Ripton
324 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2023
.TODAY...Cloudy. A chance of showers with a slight chance of
thunderstorms this morning, then showers likely with a chance of
thunderstorms this afternoon. Some thunderstorms may produce
heavy rainfall. Highs in the lower 70s. South winds around
10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
.TONIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Showers with a chance of thunderstorms
until midnight, then a chance of showers after midnight. Some
thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall until midnight. Lows in
the upper 50s. Light and variable winds. Chance of rain
90 percent.
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming partly
sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. Light and variable winds.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s. Light and
variable winds.
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. Light and
variable winds.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 60s.
.SATURDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the mid 70s. Chance of rain
70 percent.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the lower 60s. Chance
of rain 70 percent.
.SUNDAY...Showers. Highs in the lower 70s. Chance of rain
80 percent.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the lower 60s.
.MONDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the mid 70s. Chance of rain
60 percent.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the lower 60s.
.INDEPENDENCE DAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs
in the upper 70s. Chance of rain 40 percent.
$$
Expires:202306281100;;902938
ASUS41 KBTV 281030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT WED JUN 28 2023
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.
VTZ001>019-281100-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON MOCLDY 70 63 78 S12 29.74R TC 21
MONTPELIER MOCLDY 66 62 87 S9 29.83R TC 19
MORRISVILLE PTCLDY 63 61 93 CALM 29.78R TC 17
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 67 64 90 MISG 29.78R TC 19
LYNDONVILLE* CLOUDY 65 63 91 SE8 29.83R TC 19
MIDDLEBURY* CLOUDY 64 64 100 CALM 29.78R TC 18
RUTLAND* MOCLDY 67 64 90 S10 29.79R TC 19
SPRINGFIELD CLOUDY 67 63 87 S5 29.81R TC 19
HIGHGATE* N/A N/A N/A N/A MISG N/A
NEWPORT* CLOUDY 66 64 93 CALM 29.80R TC 19
BENNINGTON PTCLDY 67 61 81 SE10 29.78S TC 19
ISLAND POND* N/A 64 N/A N/A S1 N/A TC 18
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 63 N/A N/A MISG N/A TC 17
LAKE EDEN* N/A 64 N/A N/A SW1 N/A TC 18
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND* N/A 72 64 78 S16 N/A TC 22
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 66 63 88 S17 N/A TC 19
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 70 64 83 SE14 N/A TC 21
$$
Expires:No;;897377
FXUS61 KBTV 280816
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
416 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving system will continue to provide the North Country with
scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms through this
afternoon. Heavy to briefly torrential rainfall will be
possible with any thunderstorms, which could lead to localized
flooding. A brief period of relatively drier and less humid
weather is anticipated for Thursday and Friday, although the
Canadian wildfire smoke might make a return. The reprieve from
rain looks to be short lived, as we return to a more unsettled
weather pattern this weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 403 AM EDT Wednesday...Expect widespread showers with embedded
thunderstorms and torrential downpours this afternoon. The severe
threat is quite low but a stronger storm or two producing isolated
damaging wind gusts and/or small hail cannot be completely ruled
out. As the vertically stacked low pressure moves over our area, the
main concern will be torrential downpours leading to localized
flooding, especially across areas that have received plenty of
rainfall over the last couple of days. PWATs will continue to be in
the 90th percentile range of the SPC sounding climatology for
Albany, NY. Forecast soundings also show tall, skinny CAPE profiles
which indicate efficient warm rain processes. Given that portions of
central, southern and north-central VT have received between 1-3
inches of rain with locally higher amounts, the soil is saturated
which could increase the potential for flooding if more heavy
rainfall occurs this afternoon. Indeed, the NERFC one hour flash
flood guidance indicates lower threshold of 1 to 1.5 inches per hour
of rainfall across much of the aforementioned areas. This would
include Addison, Rutland, Windsor, Washington, Orange and southern
Chittenden counties. But all things considered, given the largely
hit or miss nature of the expected heavy rainfall, WPC has continued
with the marginal excessive rainfall outlook and there is no need
for longer fused flood watches at this time. None of the river
basins are also forecast to go to action or minor flood stage for
the next couple of days.
Wednesday will also be the last day of the current stretch of high
humidity and rainy pattern as the upper low pressure system finally
exits the area. For overnight tonight, areas of fog are likely to
develop as surface winds become light and given the plenty of
antecedent low-level moisture around from all the rainfall over the
past few days. While the reprieve does not appear to be an extended
one, Thursday looks to feature relatively drier conditions with
rainfall becoming more showery in nature and mainly confined to
eastern VT. Dew points should be several degrees lower than the last
few days. However, Environmental Canada model shows the wildfire
smoke making a return on Thursday as the near surface winds shift to
the west and northwest. This may make a small dent on the daytime
highs but thinking that highs on Thursday should top out in the
upper 70s to lower 80s across northern NY and western VT with lower
to mid 70s across NEK and eastern VT due to more cloud cover and
rain showers for the latter region.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 403 AM EDT Wednesday...A brief break in the unsettled weather
can be expected Thursday night into Friday as ridging builds in
behind the departing mid- level trough. Thursday night will feature
light and variable winds, and given the abundant moisture from the
recent rainfall, some patchy fog development may be possible.
Overnight lows ranging from the mid 50s in the Adirondacks to mid
60s in the Champlain Valley.Friday will be much drier than the last
couple of days, however the some isolated showers in the afternoon
cannot be ruled out. Temperatures on Friday will be in the low to
mid 80s in the broad valleys, and closer to the low 70s for the
higher terrain.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 403 AM EDT Wednesday...The unsettled weather pattern picks back
up heading into the weekend as another upper level trough starts to
work towards the region. The greatest chance of showers will be in
the afternoon on Saturday and Sunday, with likely showers and
thunderstorms. Southerly flow continues to bring abundant moisture
to the region, with PWAT values 1.50" or greater, which could allow
for some locally heavy rainfall in any convective storms. As we head
into next week, this weather pattern looks to continue, however
showers look to be more diurnally driven, with the greatest chances
for showers in the afternoon. Temperatures will be rather
seasonable, with highs generally in the low to mid 80s, although
with dewpoints in the 60s it will continue to be rather humid.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...Mix of MVFR and VFR conditions through
12z with winds from the S/SE at 5-10 kt. Another line of
showers/thunderstorms is expected along a frontal boundary that
will pass through the region 12-21Z moving west to east. Some of
these storms may be strong, but heavy rain continues to be the
primary threat and will likely result in periods of IFR/MVFR
CIG/VIS. Winds shift westerly behind the front with conditions
beginning to dry and skies starting to clear. Radiation
fog/stratus will likely become widespread after 00Z Thursday.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Over the past 72 hours, rainfall estimates of 1 to 3 inches
have been observed, with localized higher amounts. This combined
with recent heavy rainfall has created areas of saturated
ground conditions. While no widespread flooding is anticipated,
another round of showers with embedded thunderstorms with
localized heavy to even brief torrential rainfall is likely late
this morning into early evening. The primary threat area for
heavy rainfall will be across the Adirondacks into most of
Vermont. The highest potential for isolated hydrologic related
issues this afternoon is expected to be where the most rainfall
has been observed in the past 72 hours, i.e. across
central/southern VT into the southern portions of the Champlain
Valley. Following coordination with WPC, we decided to continue
with the Marginal risk in the Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook.
The main reason against upgrading to Slight risk at this time is
because the 00z HREF shows the heaviest rainfall across the
northern zones that have observed less rainfall (generally less
than an inch) in the last few days. This is also reflected in
the NERFC's more generous flash flood guidance of 1.5 to 2
inches per hour. Nonetheless, we will closely monitor the
potential for any flooding where heavy to torrential rainfall
develops this afternoon. Always remember, if you encounter
flooded roadways, turn around, don't drown.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Chai
NEAR TERM...Chai
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Chai
HYDROLOGY...Chai
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