Expires:202306241400;;659616
FPUS51 KBTV 240645
ZFPBTV
Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
243 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2023
VTZ018-241400-
Eastern Addison-
Including the cities of Bristol and Ripton
243 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2023
.TODAY...Showers. A slight chance of thunderstorms this morning,
then a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon. Some thunderstorms
may produce heavy rainfall this morning. Some thunderstorms may
produce heavy rainfall this afternoon. Highs in the lower 70s.
South winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.
.TONIGHT...Cloudy. Showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms
until midnight, then a chance of showers after midnight. Lows in
the lower 60s. Southwest winds around 10 mph until midnight,
becoming light and variable. Chance of rain 90 percent.
.SUNDAY...Showers likely. A chance of thunderstorms in the
afternoon. Some thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall in the
afternoon. Humid with highs in the upper 70s. Light and variable
winds. Chance of rain 70 percent.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms.
Some thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall. Humid with lows in
the lower 60s. Light and variable winds. Chance of rain
70 percent.
.MONDAY...Showers with a chance of thunderstorms. Some
thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall. Humid with highs in the
lower 70s. Southeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain
90 percent.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the lower 60s. Chance of
rain 70 percent.
.TUESDAY...Showers. Highs in the lower 70s. Chance of rain
90 percent.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Showers. Lows in the lower 60s. Chance of rain
90 percent.
.WEDNESDAY...Showers. Highs in the lower 70s. Chance of rain
90 percent.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Showers. Lows in the lower 60s. Chance of rain
90 percent.
.THURSDAY...Showers with a chance of thunderstorms. Some
thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall. Highs in the lower 70s.
Chance of rain 80 percent.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the upper 50s.
.FRIDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the lower 70s. Chance of rain
60 percent.
$$
Expires:202306241100;;669587
ASUS41 KBTV 241030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SAT JUN 24 2023
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.
VTZ001>019-241100-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON CLOUDY 72 69 90 S6 29.86S TC 22
MONTPELIER MOCLDY 69 65 86 CALM 29.94S TC 21
MORRISVILLE MOCLDY 66 64 93 CALM 29.90S TC 19
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 68 63 84 MISG 29.88F TC 20
LYNDONVILLE* CLOUDY 67 65 91 CALM 29.93F TC 20
MIDDLEBURY* CLOUDY 69 69 99 CALM 29.88S TC 21
RUTLAND* PTCLDY 70 67 90 S6 29.90S TC 21
SPRINGFIELD CLOUDY 70 66 87 CALM 29.91S TC 21
HIGHGATE* N/A N/A N/A N/A MISG N/A
NEWPORT* RAIN 65 64 95 S3 29.91F TC 19
BENNINGTON CLOUDY 70 64 81 E6 29.89S TC 21
ISLAND POND* N/A 64 N/A N/A CALM N/A TC 18
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 63 N/A N/A MISG N/A TC 17
LAKE EDEN* N/A 64 N/A N/A E1 N/A TC 18
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 63 N/A N/A CALM N/A TC 17
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND* N/A 70 70 100 S6 N/A TC 21
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 70 68 94 S7 N/A TC 21
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 72 70 94 S7 N/A TC 22
$$
Expires:No;;659654
FXUS61 KBTV 240654
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
254 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Rainfall will overspread the region this morning with widespread
showers and scattered thunderstorms expected throughout the day. A
brief lull in shower activity will be seen overnight tonight into
Sunday morning before showers become more widespread Sunday
afternoon. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are likely to
continue through much, if not all, of next week so be sure to have
that umbrella or rain jacket handy.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 254 AM EDT Saturday...A decaying upper level low over the Ohio
Valley is beginning to devolve into an open wave early this morning
with a potent shortwave rotating northward on the eastern periphery
of this upper level feature. This shortwave has already begun to
bring widespread rainfall to portions of the Mid-Atlantic and
northern New York. This feature was analyzed well by the 00Z RAOBs
from Virgina all the way to New York City showing PWAT values
exceeding 1.75 inches. As the day progresses, this feature is
expected to push northward into the North Country and bring a
significant push of moisture to the region with PWATs near 2.0"
expected across the Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys with lower
values (near 1.75") expected across the remainder of the North
Country. Given good synoptic forcing with this potent shortwave and
an influx of deep moisture, the stage has been set for some heavy
rainfall and scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. The latest
ensemble runs of the GEFS, NBM, and ECMWF all show probabilities
exceeding 50% than much of our area could see between 0.75" and 1.0"
of rain through 8 AM Sunday.
It would not be surprising to see a few areas across the region see
upwards to 2 inches of rain today as an embedded thunderstorms would
significantly increase rainfall rates. PWAT values will be in the
97th percentile today with warm cloud depths of 12kft which is more
than sufficient to support rainfall rates in excess of an inch per
hour in the stronger storms today. In addition, the lack of any
appreciable flow aloft (10 knots or so) will limit storm motions
which could lead to localized flooding of poor drainage areas this
afternoon. Flash flooding, for today, looks unlikely given the
anomalously dry antecedent conditions but we will be monitoring
radar closely today.
Rainfall will taper off this evening as both instability wanes and
the shortwave shifts to the north and east. Subsidence in the wake
of the shortwave should create a period of quiet weather after
midnight and continuing through much of Sunday morning. The remnants
of the aforementioned upper level low will move overhead on Sunday
which will spark additional showers and thunderstorms which will be
primarily focused across the southern half of Vermont and northern
New York. As with Saturday, PWAT values will be 2-3 standard
deviations above normal which should support locally heavy rainfall
once again. Areal coverage for thunderstorm activity on Sunday could
be greater than that of Saturday given slightly better thermodynamic
profiles. Again, we will need to monitor flood potential as we begin
to enter a multi-day heavy rainfall event.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 254 AM EDT Saturday...Weak remnants of the upper low that has
plagued the eastern CONUS continues to fill being a weak trof on the
edges of a new closed low across the Great Lakes.
Any shower activity from Sunday will dissipate Sunday night with the
loss of instability and weak energy from this trof shifting east out
of our area.
On Monday...some vorticity advection pinwheeling around parent low
will move across the region with marginal surface based skinny CAPES
around 500j/kg and unidirectional southerly flow and PWATS 1.5-1.75
inches for heavy rainers as will be the story this weekend and much
of the upcoming week. That being said...toward the very end of the
period there is some developing 0-6km shear that maximizes late
Monday night-Tuesday.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 254 AM EDT Saturday...The overall big picture as you have heard
already is that it will be wet, not raining all the time but when it
does, some good soakers with increasing flood threat each successive
day.
It looks like some mid-level drying early Monday night between
rotating shortwaves thus activity waning late evening-overnight
locally. Meanwhile...strong shortwave and instability in Mid-
Atlantic late Monday-Monday evening will develop strong convection
and as that rotates north will weaken yet hold enough together for
some shower activity moving back for early Tuesday-Tuesday morning.
Tuesday will feature upper low shifting slightly east and going
slightly negative with shortwave energy, instability, occluded front
and PWATS still rich at 1.5-1.75 inches. Greatest threat appears
across northern NY but these type of details can change.
Added factor late Tuesday through Thursday is coupled jet structure
to our south for large scale ascent to develop/enhance activity into
our area with activity likely developing to our south and then just
moving due north.
Wednesday...very similar with surface low and boundaries still
across our forecast area for greatest focus of shower/t-storm
activity.
On Thursday...slight eastward adjustment, upper low fills more with
surface reflections riding more north of the area thus still active
but more cellular in nature yet still good jet structure.
Any day has a localized flood threat if some training of heavy rain
showers/t-storms with chances increasing Tuesday/Wednesday due to
increased ground saturation from previous rainfall and more synoptic
lift/organization but Thursday susceptible as well.
Friday...All above features should be shifting largely north and
east of forecast area but still enough troughiness and residual
moisture for a chance of showers.
Everyone, but especially decision makers and residents of known poor
drainage, flash flooding areas need to monitor future forecasts.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...Rainfall will overspread the North Country
through the morning hours with rain expected at all terminals by
16Z. Conditions are currently high VFR but we will see these
conditions deteriorate from south to north through the morning
hours as rain begins to fall. Ceilings will generally range from
1500 to 2500 ft this afternoon but by these evening a few places
may begin to approach IFR conditions as ceilings drop below 1000
ft. Visibilities overall will range from 4-6 SM in rain today
but with thunderstorms possible this afternoon we could see
brief IFR conditions where heavy rain falls. Rainfall will taper
off between 00Z and 03Z with just some VCSH mentioned
thereafter.
Outlook...
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance
TSRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Isolated TSRA, Patchy BR.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Numerous SHRA,
Scattered TSRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA,
Isolated TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA,
Scattered TSRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Clay
NEAR TERM...Clay
SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...Clay
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