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SKIVT-L  September 2018, Week 4

SKIVT-L September 2018, Week 4

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Fri, 28 Sep 2018 06:50:01 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (245 lines)

Expires:201809282000;;327471
FPUS51 KBTV 280649
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
247 AM EDT Fri Sep 28 2018


VTZ006-282000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
247 AM EDT Fri Sep 28 2018

.TODAY...Mostly cloudy with rain this morning, then partly sunny
this afternoon. Highs in the mid 60s. Light and variable winds.
Chance of rain 90 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Mostly clear until midnight, then partly cloudy with a
chance of showers after midnight. Lows in the upper 40s. Light and
variable winds, becoming southwest around 10 mph after midnight.
Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. A chance of showers, mainly in the
morning. Highs in the upper 50s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Northwest
winds around 10 mph. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 50s. Southwest winds
around 10 mph. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the mid 40s. 
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the upper 50s. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows around 50. Chance of rain
60 percent. 
.TUESDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the mid 60s. Chance of rain
70 percent. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the lower 50s. Chance of
rain 70 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the upper 60s. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the lower 50s. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the upper 60s. 

$$


Expires:201809281100;;336505
ASUS41 KBTV 281030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2018

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-281100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     LGT RAIN  56  54  93 SE5       30.09F                  
MONTPELIER     LGT RAIN  51  51 100 SE5       30.16F                  
MORRISVILLE    LGT RAIN  52  52 100 CALM      30.12F                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     52  52 100 MISG      30.13R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   DRIZZLE   51  50  97 CALM      30.14F                  
MIDDLEBURY*    LGT RAIN  51  50  95 CALM      30.09F                  
RUTLAND*       LGT RAIN  51  47  86 SE6       30.11F                  
SPRINGFIELD    LGT RAIN  51  51 100 CALM      30.13F                  
HIGHGATE*      DRIZZLE   55  55  99 SE3       30.09S                  
NEWPORT*       RAIN      50  50 100 CALM      30.13F                  
BENNINGTON     LGT RAIN  51  47  86 E6        30.10F                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     50 N/A N/A E1          N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     50 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     50 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     57  55  94 SE10        N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     57  54  88 S22         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     55  54  94 SE10        N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;329736
FXUS61 KBTV 280756
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
356 AM EDT Fri Sep 28 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Light rainfall this morning will quickly taper off with some
clearing skies anticipated by this afternoon. Temperatures will
warm into the 60s with south winds prevailing. A cold front will
increase the clouds with scattered showers likely over northern
New York into the northern Vermont Mountains tonight. These
showers will weaken on Saturday morning, with increasing 
amounts of sunshine and cool temperatures expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 335 AM EDT Friday...Water vapor shows embedded short wave
energy and ribbon of enhanced mid level moisture streaking from
southwest to northeast across our cwa early this morning. This
combined with a band of favorable 7h fgen forcing is helping to
produce a widespread light rainfall across most of our cwa.
However, this precip will quickly taper off across the cpv by
12z and thru all of eastern/southern vt by 14z this morning, as
subsidence develops behind departing short wave energy. The next
challenge will be amount of clearing, before next system arrives
tonight. RAP/Nested NAM soundings show some lingering rh btwn
925mb and 750mb this morning, but this quickly thins and skies
should become mostly sunny for this aftn. Mid/upper level 
clouds ahead of our next system approach our western cwa by 00z 
this evening. The combination of favorable 5h pva with mid/upper
level trof, ribbon of enhanced 850 to 500mb moisture, and some 
convergence along boundary will promote a favorable environment 
for some rain shower activity btwn 03z-09z. Unlike this crnt 
event where best forcing/moisture is across our central/eastern 
and southern cwa, this system features the best energy/rh fields
across the slv/northern dacks into the northern green mtns. 
Have mention likely pops with qpf generally <0.10, with highest 
amounts over the western/northern dacks. 

Expect temps very similar to yesterday with highs mainly in the
60s with a few values near 70f across the slv. Expect a slow
rise in temps during the morning hours, because of clouds but
temps should rebound nicely this aftn, especially cpv. Coolest
values will be ct river valley and parts of central vt, where
clearing will take the longest to develop. Otherwise, developing
clouds and southerly flow tonight will hold temps mid 40s to
upper 50s. Expecting a cool Saturday with moderate low level caa
behind boundary with progged 850mb temps btwn 1-4c. Any shower
activity will quickly dissipate by 14z across the northern vt
mountains with some lingering upslope clouds likely thru early
aftn. Temps mainly in the mid 50s to near 60, except 40s in the
summits.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 353 AM EDT Friday...Heading into Saturday night, 
anticipate broad sfc anticyclone (1030mb) across the ern Great 
Lakes region will drift ewd and be centered across NY and New 
England at 12Z Sunday. This system should bring mostly clear 
skies Saturday night. Combined with light winds, good 
radiational cooling should yield low temps ranging from 35-45F, 
coldest across the nrn Adirondacks and far nern VT, and warmest 
near Lake Champlain with the moderating influence of water temps
still running 63-64 deg. May see some patchy valley fog 06-12Z 
Sunday across central/ern VT and within the nrn Adirondack 
region as well. 

High pressure should remain in control most of Sunday as it 
progresses eastward into the Gulf of Maine. Anticipate a developing 
warm front across the central Great Lakes, but appears the North 
Country will see just increasing mid-upr level clouds from west to 
east during the afternoon hrs. Kept just a slight chance of a shower 
late in the day Sunday across nrn NY. Valley highs on Sunday 
generally expected 60-64F with light S-SW winds developing. 

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 353 AM EDT Friday...Developing warm front from the 
central Great Lakes ewd across central NY into wrn New England 
will bring developing rain chances in the frontal zone across 
nrn NY and VT, especially later Sunday night into Monday. Have 
indicated mostly cloudy conditions during this period. Should 
eventually see the front lift nwd into srn Quebec as a wave low 
develops across the central Great Lakes Monday night. As this 
low tracks ewd in moderately fast mid-upr level flow, will see 
trailing cold front pass through the North Country with 50- 70% 
PoPs for rainfall on Tuesday. With the North Country briefly in
the warm sector, have indicated highs in the mid 60s to lower 
70s, warmest across the valleys of Rutland and Windsor counties 
in S-central VT. High pressure returns on Wednesday, with 
possible significant amplification of mid-upr level height 
pattern across the Great Lakes into the nern U.S. during Wed-Thu
time frame. Of note are the +15C 850mb temps in place Thursday 
on the 00Z GFS, and +16 to +17C 850mb temps per the 00Z ECMWF. 
Have raised temperatures into the low 70s for now on Wednesday 
and Thursday, but with developing S-SW gradient flow and 
building heights, it's possible we could see max temperatures 
closer to 80F for Thursday if current NWP trends hold. Given
Day6 time frame, we'll continue to monitor.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...Light rain continues to spread north
toward btv/mpv taf sites early this morning, along with lowering
cigs. Expect mainly vfr conditions to prevail with this precip,
with maybe a brief period of mvfr cigs/vis possible at mpv in
the heavier pockets of rain btwn 07-12z this morning. Otherwise,
precip quickly dissipates this morning with vfr conditions at
all taf sites anticipated. Winds light and variable will become
south/southwest at 4 to 8 knots today. Next front approaches
slk/mss toward 06z Saturday with increasing clouds along with a
chance of showers. 

Outlook...

Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: MVFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...Banacos
LONG TERM...Banacos
AVIATION...Taber

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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