Expires:200603112330;;114680
FPUS51 KBTV 110841
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
341 AM EST SAT MAR 11 2006


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>018-112330-
ORLEANS-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-ORANGE-EASTERN FRANKLIN-
EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...ISLAND POND...JOHNSON...STOWE...
ST. JOHNSBURY...MONTPELIER...BRADFORD...RANDOLPH...ENOSBURG FALLS...
RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON
341 AM EST SAT MAR 11 2006

.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10
MPH.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH UNTIL
MIDNIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...
THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S.
SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE
OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING...THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS... BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH
IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT.
.MONDAY NIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF
RAIN 60 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY...RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
70 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
LOWS AROUND 20. 
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 15. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 15. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. 

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

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FXUS61 KBTV 110931
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
431 AM EST SAT MAR 11 2006

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY
FLOW RETURNS BEFORE MORNING ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSUE
WILL TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN OCCLUDED
FRONT PASSAGE BY TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY COLDER AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHALLOW LAYER OF STRATOCUMULUS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY GIVE
WAY TO SUNSHINE AS HEATING HELPS TO MIX THINGS OUT. CLOUDS AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH BY EARLY SUNDAY AND WITH RIDGE
MOVING OFF THE COAST WINDS WEST OF THE GREEN MTNS WILL INCREASE
WITH RISING TEMPS TOWARD MORNING. MODELS CONVECTIVE SCHEMES
KICKING IN WITH CONVECTION IN THE WARM SECTOR AND AS RESULT CONFIDENCE
OF TIMING AND LOCATION OF PRECIP STARTS DECREASING SUNDAY. SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY NOTED BUT LOOKS FAIRLY WEAK. IT DOES APPEAR
BEST FORCING FOR PRECIP WILL BE THE WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE DURING MIDDAY SUNDAY. BLEND OF MOS POPS USED AS GFS
ONLY 54 AT BTV WHILE ETA/NGM MOS 95/86. PRECIPITABLE WATER JUMPS
RAPIDLY ABOVE AN INCH BY 18Z SUNDAY THEN DRIES OUT BY 00Z.

ON MONDAY ANOTHER SYSTEM HEADS TOWARD THE NORTH COUNTRY BUT THE
LOW IS LIKELY TO BE CLOSER TO OUR AREA AND A BIT MORE VIGOROUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. FORECAST
STILL APPEARS ON TRACK WITH STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
REGION ON TUES FOLLOWED BY COLDER AIR. SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT WITH SNOW SHOWERS FOLLOWING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS WED-FRI WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND HIGHS IN THE 20S
AND 30S. OTHER THAN SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES MAINLY IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WED-FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...
WEAK VORT LOBE STL TO MV ACRS FA THRU 12Z WITH SAT PIX STL SHW
ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE PRESENT. MVFR CONDS DUE TO CIGS AT KSLK/KMPV
TIL VORT LOBE PASSES ARD 12Z...THEREAFTER RIDGING AT ALL LVLS WITH
DVLPG SS AND MIXING WL MAKE FOR SKC-SCT CONDS BY 18Z. CI CLDS
ADVANCE ACRS FA AFT 00Z AND INCRS/THICKEN/LWR AHD OF NXT SYSTEM THAT
WL AFFECT FA JUST AFT 12Z SUN.


&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SLW







FXUS61 KBTV 110056
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
756 PM EST FRI MAR 10 2006

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
POST-FRONTAL WLY WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
GUSTS AOA 25KTS PERSIST AT KMSS AND KSLK...AND AT A FEW SITES IN
VT. WITH STEEP NEAR SFC LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE SEA- LEVEL
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING...HAVE INCREASED WINDS FOR MOST ZONES
TO BREEZY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THEREAFTER...PBL STABILIZATION AND
SLACKENING GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS ALL
SECTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.

RADAR INDICATES ONLY A FEW WK RETURNS ASSOCIATED WITH PREVAILING
OVC/STRATUS DECK. MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS N-CENTRAL/NERN VT AND HAVE NOW INCLUDED THE SAME FOR NRN
ADIRONDACKS THRU MIDNIGHT. INCREASED SKY COVER FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND IR SAT TRENDS. SKIES WILL LIKELY CLEAR
RAPIDLY AFTER 12Z WITH INSOLATION/LOW-LEVEL MIXING ELIMINATING
REMAINING LOW STRATUS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 429 PM EST FRI MAR 10 2006/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO END BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
VERMONT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW ATMOSPHERE TO DRY OUT OVERNIGHT
WITH JUST A SHALLOW LAYER OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING OVERNIGHT.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
AND MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS
FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD EAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN ON MONDAY.

HAVE GONE WITH THE GFS MODEL FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE TREND IS PRETTY CLEAR THAT THE CURRENT ERN U.S. RDG AND MILD
WEATHER WILL BE REPLACED BY A DURATION OF BROAD TROFINESS AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN SERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST BY LATE TUESDAY
THRU FRIDAY.

MUCH LESS CLEAR ARE THE DETAILS OF THE TRANSITION MONDAY NIGHT THRU
TUESDAY.  A CURRENTLY DEEP TROF IN THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. EJECTS
THRU THE MS VLY AND INTO THE NORTHEAST...SUPPORTING A SFC LOW AND
SLUG OF WET WEATHER.  THE BIG QUANDRY TODAY IS HOW THE NAM AND GFS
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF SFC LOW.
CURRENT PUBLIC FCSTS ARE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...BUT HAVE BEEN BASED MOSTLY ON GFS...SUGGESTING A WARM
SECTOR AND RAINFALL EVENT FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND COLD FRONT MOVING
THRU TUESDAY WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS.  NAM REMAINS
INSISTENT THAT THE S/WV WILL FLATTEN IN THE FACE OF STG FLAT JET AND
ONLY A WEAK SFC WAVE TO RIPPLE OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA ON
MONDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW STREAKING SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA THRU THE MID
ATLC STATES.

REGARDLESS OF WHAT HAPPENS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FCST AREA
SHOULD BE IN COLD CYCLONIC FLOW WITH LMTD MSTR WED THRU FRIDAY.
CONSIDERING THICKNESSES AND COLD H8 TEMPS...TRIMMED A FEW DEGREES
FROM THE MEX GUIDANCE FOR ALL PERIODS LAST HALF OF THE WEEK.  DAILY
THREAT OF LIGHT SNOWSHOWERS...BUT IMPT MSTR SHOULD REMAIN SUPPRESSES
SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA.

AVIATION...
WINDS NOT QUITE AS STG AS EARLIER FCST.  EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS NOW
SHOULD DIMINISH PRETTY RAPIDLY AFTER 06Z AS S/WV TROF PULLS OUT AND
BUFKIT SOUNDING FCSTS SUGGEST RAPID DRYING AT ALL LVLS IMMEDIATELY
ABOVE THE SFC.  SCT TO SKC WITH LIGHT WINDS SHOULD BE PREVALENT BY
EARLY TO MID MORNING ON SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BANACOS








FXUS61 KBTV 102129
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
429 PM EST FRI MAR 10 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO END BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
VERMONT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW ATMOSPHERE TO DRY OUT OVERNIGHT
WITH JUST A SHALLOW LAYER OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING OVERNIGHT.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
AND MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS
FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD EAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN ON MONDAY.

HAVE GONE WITH THE GFS MODEL FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE TREND IS PRETTY CLEAR THAT THE CURRENT ERN U.S. RDG AND MILD
WEATHER WILL BE REPLACED BY A DURATION OF BROAD TROFINESS AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN SERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST BY LATE TUESDAY
THRU FRIDAY.

MUCH LESS CLEAR ARE THE DETAILS OF THE TRANSITION MONDAY NIGHT THRU
TUESDAY.  A CURRENTLY DEEP TROF IN THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. EJECTS
THRU THE MS VLY AND INTO THE NORTHEAST...SUPPORTING A SFC LOW AND
SLUG OF WET WEATHER.  THE BIG QUANDRY TODAY IS HOW THE NAM AND GFS
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF SFC LOW.
CURRENT PUBLIC FCSTS ARE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...BUT HAVE BEEN BASED MOSTLY ON GFS...SUGGESTING A WARM
SECTOR AND RAINFALL EVENT FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND COLD FRONT MOVING
THRU TUESDAY WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS.  NAM REMAINS
INSISTENT THAT THE S/WV WILL FLATTEN IN THE FACE OF STG FLAT JET AND
ONLY A WEAK SFC WAVE TO RIPPLE OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA ON
MONDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW STREAKING SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA THRU THE MID
ATLC STATES.

REGARDLESS OF WHAT HAPPENS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FCST AREA
SHOULD BE IN COLD CYCLONIC FLOW WITH LMTD MSTR WED THRU FRIDAY.
CONSIDERING THICKNESSES AND COLD H8 TEMPS...TRIMMED A FEW DEGREES
FROM THE MEX GUIDANCE FOR ALL PERIODS LAST HALF OF THE WEEK.  DAILY
THREAT OF LIGHT SNOWSHOWERS...BUT IMPT MSTR SHOULD REMAIN SUPPRESSES
SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...
WINDS NOT QUITE AS STG AS EARLIER FCST.  EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS NOW
SHOULD DIMINISH PRETTY RAPIDLY AFTER 06Z AS S/WV TROF PULLS OUT AND
BUFKIT SOUNDING FCSTS SUGGEST RAPID DRYING AT ALL LVLS IMMEDIATELY
ABOVE THE SFC.  SCT TO SKC WITH LIGHT WINDS SHOULD BE PREVALENT BY
EARLY TO MID MORNING ON SATURDAY.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...REB
AVIATION...REB








   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://www.weather.gov/inlr.php
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

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