SKIVT-L Archives

January 2019, Week 1

SKIVT-L@LIST.UVM.EDU

Options: Use Monospaced Font
Show Text Part by Default
Show All Mail Headers

Message: [<< First] [< Prev] [Next >] [Last >>]
Topic: [<< First] [< Prev] [Next >] [Last >>]
Author: [<< First] [< Prev] [Next >] [Last >>]

Print Reply
Subject:
From:
Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>
Reply To:
Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>
Date:
Fri, 4 Jan 2019 06:50:02 -0500
Content-Type:
text/plain
Parts/Attachments:
text/plain (258 lines)
Expires:201901042100;;837137
FPUS51 KBTV 041126
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
623 AM EST Fri Jan 4 2019


VTZ006-042100-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
623 AM EST Fri Jan 4 2019

.TODAY...Mostly cloudy. A chance of flurries this morning. Highs in
the upper 30s. Southwest winds around 10 mph. 
.TONIGHT...Cloudy. Lows in the mid 20s. Southwest winds around
10 mph until midnight, becoming light and variable. 
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming partly
sunny. Highs in the mid 30s. Light and variable winds. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows in the mid 20s. West winds around 10 mph. 
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs around 30. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to
30 mph. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows zero to 5 above zero. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny. Highs around 20. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Snow likely. Lows around 10 above. Chance of snow
70 percent. 
.TUESDAY...Snow likely. Highs in the lower 30s. Chance of snow
70 percent. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Snow showers likely. Lows in the lower 20s. Chance
of snow 70 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY...Snow showers likely. Highs in the upper 20s. Chance of
snow 60 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers.
Lows 10 to 15. 
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs in the lower 20s. 

$$


Expires:201901041200;;837380
ASUS41 KBTV 041130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST FRI JAN 04 2019

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-041200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     MOCLDY    33  26  75 S14       29.81S WCI  23          
MONTPELIER     FAIR      28  23  81 S8        29.81F WCI  20          
MORRISVILLE    FAIR      27  25  92 CALM      29.79F                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     29  26  89 MISG      29.80S                  
LYNDONVILLE*   MOCLDY    26  24  93 S5        29.80F WCI  20          
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    32  25  74 S9G17     29.83F WCI  24          
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    33  24  69 VRB5      29.87S WCI  29          
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    29  27  92 NW5       29.87S WCI  24          
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    32  28  83 S10       29.79S WCI  24          
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    28  25  88 S8        29.77S WCI  20          
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    33  22  63 CALM      29.89S                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     28 N/A N/A N7          N/A  WCI  21          
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     25 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     27 N/A N/A SW3         N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     21 N/A N/A SW32        N/A  WCI   2          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     34  30  86 S21G29      N/A  WCI  22          
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     34  30  86 SW21        N/A  WCI  22          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     34  28  80 S21         N/A  WCI  22          

$$


Expires:No;;829445
FXUS61 KBTV 040815
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
315 AM EST Fri Jan 4 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak upper-level disturbance passing north of the International 
Border will spread scattered light snow showers across northern New 
York and northern Vermont this morning. However, developing south to 
southwest low-level winds today will allow temperatures to moderate, 
reaching the upper 30s to lower 40s in most valley sections by this 
afternoon. A southern stream system, over the Arklatex early this 
morning, will slide off the mid-Atlantic coast and south of New 
England on Saturday. There is a chance for light mixed wintry 
precipitation with this system across south-central Vermont, but any 
significant precipitation is expected to remain south of the North 
Country.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 314 AM EST Friday...The North Country remains in a west-
northwesterly mid-level flow regime, with an embedded shortwave 
trough across srn Quebec brining some light snow shower activity
across far nrn NY and VT early this morning. May see a quick 
dusting to half inch across northern areas, but overall trend 
will be for decreasing coverage of snow showers by mid-late AM 
as broad south to southwesterly low-level flow develops. This 
weakens overall low- mid level convergence across the region, 
with just variably cloudy skies for the balance of the day 
(highest cloud cover across the far north) and a few flurries 
across the nrn summits. The S-SW gradient flow increases during 
the daylight hrs, and should see sustained winds of 10-20mph 
with gusts to 25mph from late morning thru the afternoon hrs, 
especially in the Champlain Valley and points west. This also 
allows temperatures to moderate, and temperatures have been 
slowly rising overnight, reaching 32F at BTV at 08Z. Should see 
afternoon highs mainly in the upr 30s to lower 40s. 

Generally quiet tonight, but strengthening low-level inversion in 
model forecast soundings and diminishing winds should allow low 
stratus to redevelop, especially across the far north. May also see 
a bit of light fog/BR around during the overnight hrs with vsby 4-
6SM in spots. Overnight lows generally expected in the mid-upr 20s. 

Southern stream system - currently over the Arklatex region early 
this AM - passes eastward off the mid-atlantic coast and south of 
New England on Saturday. May see just the northern fringe of 
associated stratiform precipitation across s-central VT, with 
conditional probability of IP/ZR/R mix across Rutland/Windsor 
counties Saturday afternoon for a few hrs. With PoPs only 20-40%, 
not expecting any significant impacts, and temperatures once again 
generally warm above freezing with highs mainly mid-upr 30s. Cloud 
cover will be most significant across ern/srn portions of the 
forecast area, with partly sunny conditions possible across nwrn VT 
and portions of northern NY for Saturday, with light northerly 
gradient winds expected. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 305 AM EST Friday...A northern stream shortwave at the 
base of an amplifying trough will push through the northeastern 
United States Saturday night. Positive vorticity advection 
associated with the feature and favorable upper-level jet 
placement will provide enough deep lift to support some snow 
showers overnight in the North Country. Despite the favorable 
dynamics however, deep moisture will be limited. At this point, 
looking like the best chances for an inch or two of snow will be
over the northwestern Adirondacks and northwestern Green 
Mountains in the overnight to morning hours. Snow showers will 
taper off during the afternoon Sunday as the better forcing 
moves east of the area. 

Cold air advection will be ongoing through the day Sunday as
westerly winds veer to the northwest. 850 mb temperatures will
fall to below -15C by Sunday afternoon. Highs Sunday (upper 20s
to low 30s) will occur late in the morning before temperatures
begin a downward spiral through the evening hours. Surface based
mixing will allow for gusty northwesterly winds 10 to 20 mph to
develop during the afternoon with gusts 20 to 30 mph possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 305 AM EST Friday...Canadian High pressure to our northwest 
will edge eastward Sunday night. Given the center of the 
anticyclone will remain well to our north across the 
International Border, the pressure gradient between this 
aforementioned high and departing (but strengthening) low 
pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will still be strong enough
to maintain some northerly winds overnight. This will keep 
ongoing cold air advection through the night before overnight 
lows in the single digits are reached around sunrise Monday 
morning. During the day Monday, clouds will increase ahead of 
the next approaching low and warm air advection will commence as
the Canadian High shifts to our northeast.

Attention then turns to the next system to impact the North Country 
with widespread precipitation starting Monday night. Low 
pressure tracking across the Great Lakes Region Monday night 
will result in increasing warm air/moisture advection and 
isentropic ascent, allowing precipitation to spread over the 
CWA. Models are generally trending the track of the primary low 
slightly further north, as well as backing off on the idea of a 
triple-point low developing off the southern New England Coast 
becoming the primary feature. The result of this shift is lower 
confidence in an all-snow event for the North Country...and 
higher confidence in an event with multiple snow/rain 
transitions. 

By Tuesday night, the low moves to our east and widespread
precipitation will taper into scattered (mainly orographically-
driven) snow showers, potentially lasting through Thursday.
Temperatures will trend colder during this time-frame, dropping
to slightly below seasonal norms for the remainder of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12Z Saturday...A weak upper level disturbance will 
bring light snow to KMSS/KSLK early this morning, with periods 
of 1-2SM vsby possible (mainly at KMSS). Elsewhere, generally 
looking at a VFR overcast with ceilings 3000-4000ft and HIR TRRN
OBSCD. Winds will increase from the south and southwest during 
the daylight hours today as pressure gradient strengthens. At 
BTV, will see south winds increasing to around 12kt with gusts 
18-20kts through most of the late morning and afternoon hours. 
Generally looking for a period of VFR conditions areawide, 
except locally MVFR cigs at KMSS/KSLK. Early indications are 
that ceilings will generally become MVFR with abundant stratus 
and localized 5-6SM BR during the Friday night period as low- 
level flow weakens. 

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight
chance SHSN.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. Slight chance SN.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR and IFR possible.
Likely SN.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with local VFR possible. Likely SN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos
SHORT TERM...RSD
LONG TERM...RSD
AVIATION...Banacos

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
SkiVt-L is brought to you by the University of Vermont.

To unsubscribe, visit http://list.uvm.edu/archives/skivt-l.html

ATOM RSS1 RSS2