Expires:202210122000;;283160
FPUS51 KBTV 120715
ZFPBTV
Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
311 AM EDT Wed Oct 12 2022
VTZ018-122000-
Eastern Addison-
Including the cities of Bristol and Ripton
311 AM EDT Wed Oct 12 2022
.TODAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s. South winds around
10 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph this afternoon.
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s. South winds
10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with
a chance of showers in the afternoon. Breezy with highs in the
mid 60s. South winds 15 to 25 mph. Gusts up to 35 mph, increasing
to 45 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Rain. Rain may be heavy at times. Breezy with
lows in the lower 50s. Southeast winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts up
to 45 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.
.FRIDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the upper 50s. South winds
around 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Lows around 40. Highs
in the upper 50s.
.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower
40s. Highs in the mid 50s.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of
showers. Lows around 40.
.MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Highs in the lower
50s. Lows around 40. Chance of rain 60 percent.
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the upper 40s.
$$
Expires:202210121100;;292022
ASUS41 KBTV 121030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT WED OCT 12 2022
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.
VTZ001>019-121100-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON CLEAR 42 39 89 E3 30.17S
MONTPELIER CLEAR 36 32 85 CALM 30.23R
MORRISVILLE MOCLDY 32 29 88 CALM 30.21R
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 32 30 92 MISG 30.21R
LYNDONVILLE* N/A 33 32 97 CALM 30.22S FOG
MIDDLEBURY* FAIR 45 45 100 S3 30.20R
RUTLAND* PTCLDY 43 42 97 SE10 30.22R
SPRINGFIELD FOG 35 35 100 CALM 30.25R VSB 1/4
HIGHGATE* MOCLDY 52 49 87 S3 30.15S
NEWPORT* FAIR 41 39 91 S5 30.19R
BENNINGTON CLEAR 39 32 76 CALM 30.23S
ISLAND POND* N/A 27 N/A N/A CALM N/A
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 30 N/A N/A MISG N/A
LAKE EDEN* N/A 36 N/A N/A CALM N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 48 N/A N/A W24 N/A
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 54 48 82 S21 N/A
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 52 48 87 S12 N/A
$$
Expires:No;;286643
FXUS61 KBTV 120819
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
419 AM EDT Wed Oct 12 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet weather is expected through tonight with surface and
upper level ridging over the region. A strong low pressure
system will lift north of our region towards the end of the
week, with attending strong cold front crossing our region
Thursday night. Gusty south winds and widespread rainfall are
expected with this frontal passage, followed by cooler and drier
weather for the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 325 AM EDT Wednesday...Surface and upper level ridges
will be in place over our region this morning, with surface high
sliding eastward during the daytime hours. This will lead to
increasing southerly return flow and some increasing clouds
towards the afternoon hours. Southerly flow will influence
temperatures and will have a noticeably warmer day than the past
several, highs will reach the upper 60s to lower 70s, even with
increasing clouds. Winds will gust out of the south up to about
25 mph by the afternoon. Clouds will increase and thicken from
west to east through the day and overnight. Temperatures will be
mild overnight due to the cloud cover and ongoing southerly
flow, minimum temperatures will only dip into the mid 40s to mid
50s.
A large upper level trough, and a surface low which will lift
well to our north, will approach from the Great Lakes region and
bring widespread rain to our region for Thursday into Thursday
night as well as strong gusty winds ahead of the cold frontal
passage. Will have increasing pressure gradient as the cold
front approaches our region and a strong southerly 850 mb jet
crossing the region as well. Rain will spread into our area from
the west Thursday afternoon and make it's way eastward across
our area, then exit Friday morning. Widespread heavy rainfall is
expected with totals ranging from 1.5"-2.5" with isolated
higher amounts. Any given location should see most of the
precipitation fall in a 6 hour period. Strong frontogenesis and
PWATs around an 1" with convergent low level flow, we remain in
a slight risk of excessive rainfall from WPC. Continues to look
like we'll have strong inflow off the Atlantic and the low
levels will be very saturated, therefore heavy rainfall
continues to be anticipated. Due to dry antecedent conditions,
not expecting any large stem river flooding, but could have
rises on creeks and streams. Rainfall amounts will be somewhat
terrain enhanced over the Adirondacks and Greens, although much
of the rain will be behind the powerful (925-850 millibar layer
winds in the 45 to 55 knot range) low level jet, which will
support widespread stratiform rain persisting behind the
convective elements ahead of the front. Gusty southerly winds
are expected ahead of the cold frontal passage as we see winds
in excess of 50 mph at the top of the mixed level due to low
level jet overhead. In our valley locations, frequent gusts in
the 30 to 40 MPH range with some gusts over 40 MPH possible
along with sustained winds in the 20 to 25 MPH range. Strongest
winds will be realized in the higher terrain and also in
downslope regions. At this time I feel that we'll stay below
wind advisory criteria, though could see an isolated gust reach
that criteria. Models continue to indicate some sort of fine
line crossing our region and we could have an isolated rumble of
thunder, though better chances for thunder are to our south.
Temperatures will be mild once again ahead of the cold front on
Thursday, max temps will reach the mid 60s to lower 70s, though
brisk winds may not feel so warm. As rain moves into the area
temperatures will level off and winds will calm down a bit.
Temperatures will not drop too sharply Thursday night as this is
just the initial front, and a secondary front will sweep
through later on ushering in even colder air. Thursday night
lows will range from the upper 40s to lower 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 325 AM EDT Wednesday...The cold front will finish moving
through Vermont early on Friday, with slightly drier air pushing
into the forecast area behind it. Showers are expected to be
largely isolated to the Northeast Kingdom, but the Canadian and
NAM hint at a slower departure. Went with 70-80% PoPs for
eastern VT early Friday, decreasing to 40-50% at most for the
NEK late Friday. There is also the potential for more showers in
northern New York from another shortwave as significant
atmospheric drying is not anticipated. Added some slight chance
of showers for the St. Lawrence Valley much of the day. With the
upper level trough stretched across the Great Lakes, the
general idea is that while heavy rain like that of Thursday
isn't forecast, the weather will still be unsettled post-front.
With of the bulk of moisture departing, clouds will also be
decreasing throughout the day Friday, with more sunshine over
northern New York despite the potential showers. Southerly winds
are likely to decrease throughout the day, but channeling could
still be possible through the Champlain Valley, and conditions
could remain slightly gusty on the lake itself. Highs after the
cold front won't be too chilly in the upper 50s to lower 60s,
still slightly above average.
Other than lingering rainfall and cloud cover in the Northeast
Kingdom, most of the area will be drying out further Friday
night, enforced by a dry slot at the 700mb level. PoPs highest
in the Northeast Kingdom with around 30% early. Some models are
spitting out showers for the Champlain Valley early in the night
as a shortwave moves through, so included some teens PoPs to
account for this, but overall chance is low due to dry air.
Clouds are expected to decrease with even some clear spots
developing. After all the rainfall into Friday morning, there's
the potential for some fog to develop in the favorable valleys
with winds calming a bit more and skies clearing. Lows in the
30s to lower 40s overnight, just around normal for this time of
year.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 325 AM EDT Wednesday...Unsettled conditions to continue
this weekend and into next week as a ridge in the northwestern
CONUS sets up a longwave trough to send front after front
through the region. Saturday should be altogether pleasant with
mostly sunny skies, above average temps, and dry weather, but
southerly winds are expected to pick up again ahead of a
boundary. Saturday night into Sunday morning, this boundary is
anticipated to bring showers and increasing clouds through the
forecast area. Temperatures will fall into the upper 30s and
lower 40s overnight. There could even be some snow mixed in on
the highest peaks of the forecast area. Sunday could have high
temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s for most. Another
boundary looks to bring showers and increased southerly winds on
Monday and Monday night with highs during the day dropping into
the 50s and higher terrain snow possible early next week as the
cold pool aloft and upper trough drop into the area.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 00z Thursday...VFR will prevail for most locations with
only MPV with chances at MVFR/IFR with morning fog. Given
drying soils, VIS/CIGs could be intermittent and crossing
categories 08-12Z from VFR to IFR; managed this with a tempo
group. Otherwise, terminals will be VFR with southerly breezes
increases after 15-18Z with gusts as high as 20kts.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Windy with gusts
to 35 kt. Chance SHRA, Definite RA.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 35 kt. Definite RA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
As of 350 PM EDT Tuesday...A slowing cold front and negatively
tilted shortwave are expected to interact with around 1.25-1.50"
of precipitable water from the Atlantic late Wednesday night
into early Thursday morning, leading to heavy rainfall across
the North Country Thursday and Vermont late Thursday through
Thursday night. Total rainfall amounts of 1.50- 2.50" are
expected, with highest amounts across the Adirondacks and Green
Mountains. There's potential for 6-12 hours of heavy rain. Leaf
fall could clog drainage across the region leading to localized
flooding.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...Storm
LONG TERM...Storm
AVIATION...Neiles
HYDROLOGY...Storm
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